“Between Bets” is an article series revealing our staff’s best wagers across the NFL, College Football, NASCAR and PGA Tour. This edition’s bets feature our favorite 2024 College Football Playoff Semifinals picks for ATS and totals markets.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | Rankings courtesy of the College Football Playoffs seeding
2024 College Football Playoffs Second-Round Picks (ATS & Totals)
#6 Penn State vs. #7 Notre Dame (Capital One Orange Bowl)
Thursday, Jan. 9 @ 7:30 p.m. ET | Miami
The betting lines have moved since opening, with Notre Dame now favored by 1.5 points after initially being a half-point favorite. The total sits at a low 44.5, reflecting the defensive prowess of both teams.
The Nittany Lions arrive in Miami with a 13-2 record (8-7 ATS), fresh off dominant victories over SMU and Boise State in earlier rounds. Penn State’s offense, led by rising 2026 NFL Draft prospect Drew Allar, ranks 25th nationally in total offense. Allar’s precision and poise have been a difference-maker, and his draft buzz has only intensified with each postseason performance.
Defensively, Penn State boasts the sixth-ranked unit in the country. However, the status of star EDGE Abdul Carter looms large. Carter, a projected top-five pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, was injured in the Fiesta Bowl but has been teasing a potential return on social media. If he plays, his impact could be monumental.
The Fighting Irish have been one of the most consistent teams in the nation, finishing 13-1 (11-2-1 ATS, the third-best mark in the country). Notre Dame’s offense is ranked 49th nationally in total offense and relies heavily on its rushing attack. However, star RB Jeremiyah Love is battling a knee injury that limited him to just 17 snaps against Georgia. The Irish will also be without TE2 Cooper Flanagan (Achilles) and DT Rylie Mills, who was lost for the season.
Notre Dame’s defense is a strength, ranking eighth nationally, and has been a cornerstone of their success. Their depth will be tested against Penn State’s balanced offensive attack.
With two elite defenses and questions surrounding key offensive contributors, this game has all the makings of a low-scoring affair. Both teams are built to control the clock through the run game, and neither will want to take unnecessary risks. The total of 44.5 feels a touch high for a game likely to be decided by field position and defensive stops.
For those looking to take a swing on the futures market, Penn State offers intriguing value at +600 to win the National Championship. Their defense has excelled against mobile quarterbacks all season, and Allar’s confidence continues to rise. A win here would likely set up a matchup against Ohio State or Texas, and a potential cash-out opportunity looms if the Nittany Lions advance.
Pick: Under 44.5 (-105) & Penn State To Win the National Championship (+600)
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*Photo Credit: Matthew O’Haren – USA TODAY Sports*
