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PGA DFS: Fortinet Championship 2023

by Conor Coughlin

We are back! One of the many reasons I love golf is that there is no rest for the wicked. We had a great 2022-2023 season with PGA DFS and betting, and we will pick right up where we left off with the Fortinet Championship this week.

Here we will see the back-to-back champion Max Homa try to go for his third straight. Frankly, I think he does it! He is HOT, and at this point, they should just rename this the Max Homa Championship. He crushes this place.

Fantasy Golf CTA

PGA DFS: Fortinet Championship 2023 Breakdown

Silverado Resort and Spa North Course in Napa Valley, Calif., once again hosts the Fortinet Championship. The course plays at around 7,150 yards and is a par 72. The course features narrow tree-lined fairways with strategically placed bunkering throughout. The greens are a mix of Bentgrass and Poa, typically playing very fast with many undulations and steep greenside runoffs.

One of the defenses of this course is the weather swings that can occur, specifically the wind. As of the time of this writing, it doesn’t look to be an issue.

I do think you can make an argument that no one type of player has an advantage here. Still, I like accurate short-iron players, and I’m skewing my pool towards bombers who are not always accurate off the tee, as being wayward is not as big of a penalty this week. Distance and getting the wedges in their hands is my focus.

Metrics My Weighted Statistical Model Focused on This Week:

  • Driving Distance
  • Shots Gained Approach + Key Approach Distances (125-150 & 225-250 out)
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Par-4 Shots Gained
  • Par-5 Shots Gained
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Three-Put Avoidance

Most weeks in PGA DFS, we discuss leverage. Leverage is important, and you will want to find it in the mid-range. Many players will be jamming in the chalky players up top. However, there are a lot of opportunities to build out a balanced lineup that doesn’t look pretty but may offer massive advantages, especially within some of the bigger Mass Muti-Entry (MME) tournaments. That said, you will want to have plenty of lineups featuring the top players as well. All of the players priced above $9,500 pose strong possibilities to win the Fortinet Championship. A good balance of stars and scrubs lineups should ensure you are looking at a green screen this weekend.

Leverage plays are those that give you a break against the projected roster percentage of a given player within a given tournament. These are more volatile players that have a unique opportunity to provide more value than that perceived by the general public.

“Chalk” are the players that will most likely appear in the majority of player’s rosters. There is good chalk, a player like Max Homa this week – a back-to-back champion in great form. There is also bad chalk, which typically occurs anytime we see a player projected to exceed 20-25% of projected rostership. Bad chalk this week may end up being Justin Thomas, who seems to be picking up steam based on narratives and past form. 

At the end of the day, I recommend creating a pool of 20 golfers you like and building multiple lineups, not overexposing yourself to any single player. In weeks like this, a shotgun approach may serve everyone well, with a lot of streaky, unproven players that may rise to the top.

PGA DFS: Fortinet Championship 2023 Picks

(Prices courtesy of DraftKings)

High-Priced ($9,000 & Higher)

Good Chalk: Max Homa, Cam Davis, Eric Cole

Bad Chalk: Justin Thomas, Beau Hossler

Leverage: Sahith Theegala,  J.J. Spaun

Mid-Priced ($7,600 – $8,900)

Good Chalk: Akshay Bhatia, Doug Ghim

Bad Chalk: Lucas Herbert, Mark Hubbard

Leverage: Peter Kuest, Taylor Pendrith, Garrick Higgo

Value-Priced ($7,500 & Lower)

Good Chalk: Kevin Yu, Nate Lashley

Bad Chalk: CT Pan, Joel Dahmen

Leverage: Andrew Novak, Vincent Whaley, Carson Young

Thanks for checking out my PGA DFS picks for the Fortinet Championship, and be sure to catch us live every Tuesday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on the 19th Hole Live! Get your bets in, and let’s win some money!

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