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Fantasy Football Week 5 Start Sit Advice: Love, Breece + More

Start, Sit & Coming Out on Top

by Seth Woolcock

“Start, Sit & Seth” is the original column of In-Between Media, bridging feel-good lifestyle advice with redraft fantasy football analysis. Consistently following Seth Woolcock’s journey as a young creator, this series is now in its sixth season. Join him in this edition as he talks about riding the ebbs and flows of luck and shares a look at his start and sit decisions for Week 5.

Food poisoning took me down on my first trip to Las Vegas during the NFL Draft. I got my college diploma, only to have my name misspelled on it. My Breece Hall jersey was delivered… the day after he tore his ACL. And how could I forget how Tevin Coleman ripped my heart out by catching three receptions for more than 30 yards on an overtime drive in a 2019 “Monday Night Football” game, causing my team to lose by 0.6?

It’s safe to say that I have a track record of bad beats. 

Whether it’s in real life or fantasy sports/sports betting, adverse outcomes at the very end are all too familiar to me. I’ve lost fantasy championships because of starting the wrong Rams handcuff RB (I’m still not over it, John Kelly) and seen more NASCAR outright tickets go up in smoke from a late-race caution than I can count.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m also an incredibly fortunate person. I was in the right place at the right time to meet the love of my life. A global pandemic shifted the course of life, allowing me time to build In-Between Media (IBT) and, eventually, find others who share the same mindset as me.

Still, it had felt like forever since the ball bounced in my favor when some degree of luck was involved. 

That was until Monday night, Oct. 2.

Celebrate Every Win

Knights of Fall, my fantasy football team in my league of record, Kane’s Extraordinary Gentlemen (KEG), was on the verge of starting 1-3. I was down 37.12 points to none other than my older brother, Austin. The same person I’ve been competing against since I was a kid was on the brink of beating me again on the back of a 48.7-point game from Christian McCaffrey.

The only thing standing in his way? D.K. Metcalf and the Seahawks D/ST.

Per usual, I fired up the primetime game late via DVR, ready to see how this one played out. Much to my lack of credence, things began going my way. Metcalf scored an early touchdown, and Daniel Jones kept going down for a loss, sack after sack. A pick-six from Seattle rookie cornerback Devon Witherspoon, and “holy shit, we could actually do this.”

When it was all said and done, I had done the improbable, beating my brother 155.3-151.02. 

That absolute high from fantasy sports/sports betting that I hadn’t felt in quite some time returned. The same feeling I got when I first played the game in 2010 and propelled me to a career in it was back. I got out of bed quicker the following morning. I sang songs a little louder throughout the workday.

However, despite the happiness that came with coming out on top, later came empathy for my brother and remembering my own series of bad beats over the years. 

Winning comes with complex feelings as we age. Yes, there’s still the same celebration and pleasure of it, but more than anything, it’s a sigh of relief. We want to enjoy it, but at the same time, we’re just waiting for the other shoe to drop.

My advice? Just enjoy it while you can. More than likely – especially if you don’t have the best relationship with lady luck like me – it will drop. My report back from the mechanic this week that it was time to say goodbye to my beloved Xterra was proof of just that.

So soak it in, and enjoy coming out on top, whether that’s just a win in your fantasy football league or something more significant. You never know when fate will swing the other way.

Alright, and here we go.

Fantasy football CTA

The following Week 5 start/sit selections are based on stats, trends and film research, reflecting value in Points Per Reception (PPR) Redraft Leagues.

Quarterback I’d Start in Week 5:

Jordan Love (Green Bay):  I highlighted Jordan Love as one of my favorite sleepers this offseason multiple times, but even I didn’t see this hot of a start coming. Love is the QB4 a month into the season and is averaging a rock-solid 21.3 fantasy points per game. What’s interesting about Love is that he’s done it in various ways: throwing for three touchdowns on low attempts or running the ball at a high clip and for a score. This shows the fourth-year signal-caller has a safe floor, regardless of the game script.

That will be crucial this week as the Packers travel to Las Vegas. Whatever way you look at it – full season or the last two weeks – the Raiders are a top-eight matchup for quarterbacks, allowing more than 20 fantasy points per game. Jimmy Garoppolo remains in concussion protocol, so it’s unclear whether he or rookie Aidan O’Connell will start. Whatever the case or the game script, Love should do enough to finish as a mid-to-low-end QB1 out west.

Quarterback I’d Sit in Week 5:

Russell Wilson (Denver):  “Mr. Unlimited” has had two QB1 performances this season, and it seems like everyone’s all the way back in on him already. I’m a bit more skeptical. One of those performances came in a game where he scored 24.1% of his weekly fantasy total on a last-second hail mary. In addition, his game last week was against the second-best matchup for opposing QBs, the Bears. Considering the only team playing the position worse is the Broncos, it’s safe to say that Week 4 may be his best performance of the year.

Meanwhile, Russell Wilson will see the Jets in Week 5, a team that’s allowed the 11th-fewest points to opposing QBs. Nathaniel Hackett, who spent the majority of the last season as the Broncos’ head coach, will be on the other sidelines. You best believe he spilled everything he knows about Wilson and these skill players to the Jets’ defense. There will also be increased motivation to New York after some out-of-pocket comments about Hackett from Sean Payton this offseason. With Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed locking up Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, Wilson will be forced to rely on a third option. Since we haven’t seen that done successfully, I am out on the Wilson against a better-than-advertised Jets defense.

Running Back I’d Start in Week 5:

Breece Hall (New York Jets):  Staying in Denver, it looks like the Jets will finally let the genie that is Breece Hall out of the bottle. Robert Saleh was quoted this week saying, “There is no pitch count for him [Hall] anymore.” Without restrictions and with Hall being by far the most explosive runner on the team, averaging 6.6 Yards Per Carry (YPC) to Dalvin Cook‘s 2.5 YPC, we could see a vintage performance from No. 20 on Sunday.

It helps that this comes in a matchup against the Broncos, who are allowing by far the most PPR points to opposing RBs this season and the past two weeks. Over the last three games, Denver has allowed the following RB performances:

Hall’s up next for a huge day against the Broncos.

Running Back I’d Sit in Week 5:

Miles Sanders (Carolina):  As somewhat expected, Miles Sanders‘ rushing efficiency has plummeted since moving to Carolina. He’s averaging a career-low 2.9 YPC. What made him usable in Weeks 1-3 was his receiving work, totaling 20 targets, a league-high for RBs in that span.

However, still dealing with a nagging groin injury, the Panthers limited his usage last week, causing him to be targeted just three times and outsnapped by Chuba Hubbard 39-31 in a competitive game against the Vikings.

Now, the Panthers travel to Detroit to face the NFC North-leading Lions. Dan Campbell is coaching this defense up, as they’re holding opposing running backs to the fifth-least PPR points per game. In addition, No running back, including Kenneth Walker, Bijan Robinson, Aaron Jones or Isiah Pacheco, has broken even 45 yards rushing against Detroit. With both his rushing upside and targets seemingly being capped in this one, I’m trying to put Sanders on the latter side of my Week 5 start/sit decisions.

Receiver I’d Start in Week 5:

Christian Kirk (Jacksonville):  To this point, the Buffalo Bills’ defense has been one of the better against opposing WRs, allowing the sixth-fewest points to them. However, I think that is about to change. They just lost No. 1 cornerback Tre’Davious White to a torn Achilles, and now they have to make the trip across the pond to play the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Jaguars did not have to travel this week, playing in London, England, last week, so they should be the more rested team. Since Week 1’s stinker, Christian Kirk has been the leading receiver for Jacksonville, averaging 10.7 targets and 17.9 PPR points per game.

Even though Zay Jones might be back in the lineup, Kirk’s sound usage shouldn’t change. I believe Doug Pederson has again found the value in deploying and scheming Kirk – his prized 2022 free agent signing – to the max. With the Jagaurs likely needing to keep up with the No. 2 scoring offense in the league, I expect a rather nice day as a whole from Trevor Lawrence and co., with Kirk being the main beneficiary.

Receiver I’d Sit in Week 5:

Robert Woods (Houston):  Look, I tried to ride the “Robert Woods is back” train a few weeks ago and got burned. Despite pacing the Texans with the second-most targets this season with 31, Woods’ production has been minimal compared to Nico Collins and Tank Dell. “Bobby Trees” has yet to find the endzone, has just one deep target (89th among WRs) and is averaging 1.2 fantasy points per target (86th among WRs).

Aside from Woods’ lack of efficiency, this is a less-than-stellar matchup against the Falcons. Atlanta runs the ball at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL (45.6%) and will try to keep the ball away from C.J. Stroud and the high-flying Texans offense. The Falcons allow the sixth-fewest PPR points to opposing WRs, and stud cornerback A.J. Terrell has been a big reason why. With Woods still playing some “X” receiver for this team, he will see a fair share of Terrell. Woods’ usually safe floor could be in trouble, and the ceiling has already been non-existent this year.

If you have a feel-good story that you would like to share for an opportunity to be featured in an upcoming edition of “Start, Sit & Seth,” please reach out.

And for more fantasy football and uplifting content, especially start/sit advice, you can find me on Twitter @Between_SethFF.

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