Here we go. The regular season is officially in the rearview mirror and the margin for error has disappeared. For eight teams, it is win or go home. How they arrived here in Round 1 of the College Football Playoff no longer matters. That fallout was handled last week. What matters now is who survives.
Scattered among the bowl slate are four games that will command the full attention of college football fans and bettors alike. The first round delivers an SEC heavyweight rematch, the ACC’s lone representative heading into one of the sport’s most hostile environments and two Group of Five teams tasked with pulling off monumental road upsets against powerhouses from the SEC and Big Ten.
There is an old saying that to be the best, you have to beat the best. That process starts this weekend. Waiting on the other side are the top four seeds: Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia and Big 12 champion Texas Tech.
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2025 College Football Playoff Round 1: Best Bets & Devy Fantasy Football Storylines
Round 1 Games of the Week
Alabama Crimson Tide (9) @ Oklahoma Sooners (8)
Memorial Stadium, Norman Okla. – Friday, Dec. 19
Betting Odds: Alabama -1.5 | Total: 40.5
Oklahoma welcomes Alabama to Norman for a rematch of their stunning Week 12 victory in Tuscaloosa. The Sooners leaned on a dominant defensive performance in that meeting, forcing three turnovers and flipping the game with an 87-yard pick-six that ended in a 23-21 upset. Everything went right for Oklahoma that night. Alabama’s run game never found traction, special teams tilted heavily in the Sooners’ favour and the Tide repeatedly sabotaged themselves. Oklahoma did not overwhelm Alabama offensively, but it did just enough while capitalizing on mistakes.
That is why Alabama will enter this rematch confident, despite the loss. The Tide limited quarterback John Mateer to 161 total yards and surrendered 17 points directly off turnovers. From Alabama’s perspective, this was a game they lost more than one that Oklahoma won.
The key is discipline. If Alabama protects the football and avoids negative special teams plays, they should control the tempo. Daniel Hill has seen his snap share steadily rise and he could play a significant role if Jam Miller is not at full strength. Hill’s north-south running style gives Alabama the balance they lacked in the first meeting.
Oklahoma will again rely on the rushing tandem of Tory Blaylock and Xavier Robinson to set up play-action shots for Mateer, with Isaiah Sategna the primary big-play threat outside. However, if Alabama forces obvious passing downs, the matchup swings sharply in the Tide’s favour.
My Picks
- Alabama -1.5: Fewer mistakes and better field position tilt the rematch.
- Under 40.5: Two disciplined defenses and playoff nerves favor a low total.
- Daniel Hill Over Rushing Yards: Increased workload if Jam Miller is limited gives Hill value.
- Oklahoma Team Total Under: Alabama’s pass rush should keep John Mateer in check.
Alabama should be in position to flip the result of the regular-season meeting if they play a cleaner game. The Tide limited Oklahoma offensively in Tuscaloosa and should benefit from positive turnover regression. Expect a slower-paced, defense-driven contest where points come at a premium.
Miami Hurricanes (10) @ Texas A&M Aggies (7)
Kyle Field, College Station, Texas – Saturday, Dec. 20
Betting Odds: Texas A&M -3.5 | Total: 51.5
Few matchups in the first round feature teams this statistically similar. Miami and Texas A&M mirror each other in roster construction, offensive philosophy and reliance on controlling the line of scrimmage. Both teams boast NFL-caliber talent across the board and both have leaned on physicality to close out games late. The difference comes at quarterback and how much variance each coaching staff is willing to tolerate.
Miami quarterback Carson Beck is the definition of high variance. His arm talent can swing games in either direction, and it has done exactly that this season. Beck was a primary factor in losses to Louisville and SMU, forcing throws under pressure and failing to protect the football.
Texas A&M’s issues surfaced most clearly in the loss to Texas. Marcel Reed, who finished the regular season with 25 touchdowns and ten interceptions, struggled mightily when forced into drop-back situations. Nearly every Aggie turnover this season came when Reed was pressured in obvious passing downs. The Aggies’ defensive concerns also cannot be ignored. Their run defense ranked well early in games, but showed cracks late due to inconsistent linebacker fits. That opens the door for Miami to sustain drives if it remains patient.
Ultimately, this feels like a game that comes down to which quarterback will make the final mistake, although playing at Kyle Field tips the scales slightly in favor of Texas A&M.
My Picks
- Texas A&M -3.5: Kyle Field and defensive depth are the difference.
- Over 51.5: Both offenses can capitalize on short fields created by pressure.
- Carson Beck Over Passing Attempts: Miami may be forced to throw to keep pace.
- Marcel Reed Under Passing Yards: Expect Texas A&M to lean on the run and defense.
This matchup profiles as a trench-heavy battle with both teams trying to protect their quarterbacks. Home-field advantage and Miami’s turnover issues away from Hard Rock Stadium give Texas A&M the edge in a game that likely tightens late.
Tulane Green Wave (11) @ Ole Miss Rebels (6)
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Miss. – Saturday, Dec. 20
Betting Odds: Ole Miss -17.5 | Total: 55.5
The College Football Playoff committee clearly leaned into rematches, and this one comes with plenty of intrigue. Both programs enter the postseason having lost their head coaches in December, yet the talent disparity here remains significant.
Lane Kiffin’s departure naturally lowered expectations for the Rebels’ offense, but offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. remains in place and continuity matters. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss draws a dream matchup against a Tulane team that ranked 121st nationally in pass defense. The Green Wave allowed 255.2 passing yards per game, 7.47 yards per attempt and a 139.02 opposing quarterback rating. This sets up as a statement opportunity for Chambliss, who should thrive in space and push the ball vertically.
Expect Ole Miss to play aggressively early. A fast start would not be surprising, especially as the Rebels look to prove the offense remains explosive post-Kiffin.
On the other side, Tulane quarterback Jake Retzlaff has struggled badly against pressure. When last visiting Oxford, he completed just five passes and averaged 3.3 yards per attempt. Pete Golding will not hesitate to blitz in his first game as head coach for Ole Miss. That pressure should produce turnovers and short fields.
Ole Miss is simply too deep, too fast and too talented for Tulane to overcome, especially with Jon Sumrall splitting focus amid his transition to Florida.
My Picks
- Ole Miss -17.5: The Rebels’ speed and depth should create early separation.
- Ole Miss Team Total Over: Mississippi can score efficiently through the air.
- Trindad Chambliss Over Passing Yards: This is a favorable matchup for a breakout game.
- Jake Retzlaff Over 1 Interception: Pressure packages should force mistakes.
Ole Miss has the talent, matchup advantages and motivation to make a statement. Tulane’s struggles against pressure and a porous pass defense make this a difficult spot for the Green Wave, especially on the road in a playoff environment.
James Madison University Dukes (11) @ Oregon Ducks (5)
Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Ore. – Saturday, Dec. 20
Betting Odds: Oregon -21.5 | Total: 49.5
Oregon has found multiple paths to victory this season, including several grind-it-out performances since late October. That versatility becomes a major advantage in this matchup. After injuries to key wide receivers throughout the season, the Ducks have embraced a run-first offense, a testament to their depth and talent.
At home, Dante Moore and the Ducks should have little trouble eclipsing 30 points. James Madison has not faced anything close to Oregon’s level of speed or depth. Louisville represented the Dukes’ toughest test and that game exposed limitations up front. James Madison lacks the pass rush needed to disrupt Moore, who completed 74.8% of his passes from a clean pocket while throwing 21 touchdowns on 258 attempts. If Moore is comfortable, this game could get away quickly.
The Dukes boast an impressive offense, averaging 448.3 yards per game with a strong third-down conversion rate. However, against Louisville and Washington State, that number dipped to just 291.5 yards per game. Oregon’s defense operates on a different plane, allowing just 4.16 yards per play and 251.6 total yards per game.
The rushing matchup also favors Oregon, despite James Madison’s strong run defense numbers. The Ducks’ rushing attack is far more dynamic than anything the Dukes have seen. Senior running back Noah Whittington has peaked at the right time, logging 17-plus carries in three of his last four games and surpassing 95 rushing yards in four of his last six. Whittington’s consistency, paired with freshmen Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr., should wear down the Dukes over four quarters.
My Picks
- Oregon -21.5: Talent and depth wear down the Dukes over four quarters.
- Over 49.5: Oregon should do most of the scoring.
- Noah Whittington Over Rushing Yards: Volume and efficiency point to a big day.
- James Madison Team Total Under: Oregon’s defense limits sustained drives.
Oregon’s balanced offense and elite defense create a matchup problem James Madison has not faced all season. The Ducks should control the line of scrimmage and gradually pull away in front of a raucous home crowd.
Heisman Watch: The Winner is…
Congratulations to Fernando Mendoza, the 2025 Heisman Trophy winner!
Mendoza’s campaign followed a winding path that began with a breakout five-touchdown performance against Illinois in Week 4. He cracked the top five the following week at +800, briefly fell out of contention midseason, then surged back into the spotlight by Week 8.
From that point forward, Mendoza was a fixture among the top five in the odds and the only candidate to reach minus odds. His performance in the Big Ten Championship sealed the award, making him the first Heisman winner in Indiana program history. It was a fitting conclusion to a season defined by resilience, production and timely brilliance.
Looking to Fernando Mendoza’s future, he is currently available at -150 odds to be the number one overall draft pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
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*Photo Credit: Steven Bisig – USA TODAY Sports*
