The FedExCup Playoffs roll into round two with the 2025 BMW Championship’s return to the Caves Valley Golf Course in Owings Mill, Maryland.
Justin Rose clinched the first round at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week in a narrow win over JJ Spaun. Both sit just behind Rory McIlroy in FedExCup, but of course, all three trailer Scottie Scheffler by a not-insignificant margin.
However, there’s two more tournaments and that’s plenty of time to shake things up, starting with the BMW Championship this weekend. Who will come out on top and who will stay around to play another week as the field drops from 50 to 30 players?
(Odds and salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
Can Bomber Justin Thomas Win? | BMW Championship 2025 Bets
Course Layout
The 2025 BMW Championship is back at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland, where it was last held in 2021 following the event’s location rotation. The course is 7,601 yards long, with a par of 70 across Bentgrass fairways and greens. While there have been some bunkers added and landing areas narrowed, none of the changes are too significant.
Course Strategy
This course may look daunting, especially since it’s on the longer side, but it’s gettable, favoring bombers with accuracy. Shorter hitters may struggle with some of the new pinch points, but long hitters will be able to overpower them. The front nine is tree-lined with some wooded drop-offs, which ups the difficulty level a bit, particularly near the fairway. The back nine is more open, but five of the nine holes include water hazards.
The rough is grown up, but the fairways are generous to accommodate. Bentgrass green complexes will be tricky and fast, and typically more wide than they are deep. The par-3s are manageable by distance, but present some of the most challenging hazards, including greenside bunkering and false edges. Most of the par-4s are in the 450-500 yard range, making this a ball strikers’ course. The weather will be hot and sunny, with temperatures in the 80s and only a light wind.
Caves Valley Golf Course is a challenging, but straightforward design. Expect to see lots of great shots and those great, accurate shots will be what it takes to win.
Building Our Betting Model
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Driving Distance
- Proximity on Approach (175+ Yards)
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
- Putting on Bentgrass (Last 12 Rounds)
- Birdie or Better Percentage
Players to Target for BMW Championship 2025:
Rory McIlroy (+800)
Why should Scottie Scheffler just get to stomp around like a giant while Rory McIlroy and the rest of the PGA Tour players try not to get smushed under his big feet? McIlroy is just as good on approach as Scheffler, right? McIlroy is just as good at putting as Scheffler, McIlroy can totally keep up under pressure even more than Scheffler and when did it become OK for one person to be the winner of everything because that’s not what the PGA Tour is about! We should totally just BET RORY MCILROY!
Justin Thomas (+2500)
Justin Thomas fits the bomber profile needed for the Caves Valley course. He’s first in this field within the crucial 175+ yard approach range, and his approach game has been flat lately. He has admittedly not been great at gaining strokes off the tee this year for most of this year, but he has gained an average of 1.2 strokes off the tee over the last four starts. Thomas had also been averaging 2.8 strokes gained putting until an off-performance last week, so he just needs to get that back. He’s a perennial top ten in birdie or better percentage and can outplay the big boys when needed.
Other Outrights To Consider:
- Cameron Young (+3000): Although Cameron Young’s last two starts were good, his season up until that point wasn’t. But it’s not just a recency bias; Young is hot. He’s jumped from 35th to 11th in strokes gained off the tee and finished fifth last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. In that showing, he gained 6.5 strokes off the tee, 3.5 on approach and 1.5 strokes on putting, which is very unusual for him. That being said, Cameron Young excels on bentgrass and it’s not even close, as evidenced when he destroyed the field two weeks ago and he could do it again.
- Viktor Hovland (+3500): The Caves Valley Golf Course sets up perfectly for Viktor Hovland. He loves his iron play and is better than almost anyone in the field, especially with his mids and longs. Hovland is also as good as it gets on approach, and he can stick darts all day long.
- Chris Gotterup (+3500): Chris Gotterup hase been turning it up every week other last week going back for months to the US Open. In the last six starts, Gotterbup has gained 3.5 strokes off the tee and 1.5 on approach, and his putter was hot up until last week. He is the third-longest in the field off the tee, although his accuracy can be a little concerning at times. Gotterup and get it done at the 2025 BMW Championship.
- Harry Hall (+5500): This could be bounce-back season for Harry Hall. He struggled off the tee for a bit, but this is an opportunity to right the ship. His approach game can get hot and he can play the short game when needed. But more than anything, Hall has an amazing putter. He can sink birdies in bunches, ranking fifth in the field by birdie or better percentage over the last 36 rounds. The only downside is that the Englishman doesn’t always play well on longer courses like this one.
Longshots To Consider:
- Taylor Pendrith (+6500): Taylor Pendrith’s ball striking has been on point over the last two months. His traditionally ice-cold putter is getting hot and he always plays better on bentgrass. Pendrith has been great off the tee in the last 36 rounds, ranking seventh in distance. He’s far from a guaranteed win, but there’s good upside.
- Sam Stevens (+10000): Sam Stevens is catching steam and playing in the sharpest form of his life. He’s already a superb ball-striker and birdie-maker, and he’s been performing particularly well on bentgrass over the last few weeks. Stevens flopped last week, but he was lights-out a few weeks ago at the 3M Open, finishing second and gaining 7.8 strokes putting, 3.5 around the green and 5.2 from tee to green. Not to mention, Stevens excels on longer courses because of his long and mid-iron play, so he should be locked for the BMW Championship.
- Jhonattan Vegas (+11000): Jhonattan Vegas is a top-level bomber with good distance, especially off the tee. But his mid-iron game is shaky at best and his putter can swing wildly from flat to flailing. He’s eight in greens in regulation gained and can stick it close on the green. When he gets it going, Vegas can put on a show and he has a shot.
- Ryan Fox (+11000): Much like those who were been mentioned before him, Ryan Fox is a bomber who loves to gain off the tee. He can get sharp in the approach game and go low where others can’t. He was at the top of his game at the Canadian Open and has the hardware to prove it, and his putting has been outstanding lately. Fox can get red-hot and that’s all it could take to claim the top spot.
Good luck this week! Thanks for checking out our PGA Tour picks & predictions for who wins the 2025 BMW Championship.
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*Photo Credit: Brett Davis – USA Today Sports*
