The regular season of the PGA Tour has come to a close, which means the fun of the playoffs is just beginning! The FedEx St. Jude Championship kicks off the event, with the 69 biggest stars in golf vying to remain in the top 50.
If that field size raised an eyebrow for you, Rory McIlroy remains unconcerned from afar, sitting this one out, but theoretically locked into the next legs. Without the world’s second-best to contest him, Scottie Scheffler is the easy betting favorite for the top spot, but could he take his foot off the gas this week since he’s also sitting pretty for the remaining two playoffs events?
Only time and the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship will tell!
(Odds and salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
Can Viktor Hovland Find Victory? | FedEx St. Jude Championship 2025 Bets
Course Layout
A favorite course of some golfers in the field, TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee, is fast but fair, with a par-70 over 7,233 yards. The fairways are Zoysia grass, but the Bermuda greens play fast, especially in this weather. In addition to the tight fairways, the course is defended by trees and water on eleven holes, plus 70 bunkers.
Course Strategy
This is a course where history doesn’t matter; it can be won in a few different ways and it’s an elite field. Bombers are great, but they need accuracy and variety in their approach and ranges. The greens will be dry and tough to stick, and they’ll be putting on a fast and firm surface. The blistering hot and humid conditions in the forecast will only further that.
Scrambling skills and bunker play are a plus, and players need to take advantage of the birdie opportunities when they come. The course rewards good shots into tight spots, so limiting mistakes and capitalizing on that is key. Proximity stats are important, but so is putting.
Ultimately, the best golfers here will need consistency, with the ability to play through the whole bag and withstand the mental game and win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Building Our Betting Model
- Fairways Gained
- Proximity on Approach (150-200 yards)
- Putting on Bermuda Grass
- Birdie or Better Percentage
- Bogey and Double Bogey Avoidance
- Strokes Gained: Par-4s (450-500 yards)
- Scrambling
Players to Target for FedEx St. Jude Championship 2025:
Scottie Scheffler (+280)
One could pretty much say, “It’s Scottie Scheffler,” and that’s reason enough. He’s not just the favorite for this tournament, he’s also the favorite to win the overall FedEx Cup. Especially without Rory McIlroy to challenge him, he’s the runaway favorite for good reason.
Scheffler is first in approach, first in Greens in Regulation, third in scrambling, third in proximity upon approach in the 150-175 yard range and second in proximity from 175-200 yards, both of which are key ranges here. He’s second in scoring on par-4 holes from 450-500 yards, of which most of the par-4s here are, and fifth in the field over the last 36 rounds for strokes gained putting, performing especially well with fast putting surfaces.
It’s Scottie Scheffler. All stats point to success at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and beyond.
Justin Thomas (+2500)
Among the top challengers for the number one spot, Justin Thomas is one to watch. Despite recent struggles off the tee, including missing fairways, he hasn’t been far off, and he could tighten it up this week. The Louisville golfer is one of the best in the field on the irons and in the short game, so he’s still gaining good drives to compensate.
More importantly, Thomas has historically played well at TPC Southwind and other comparable courses. He plays well on a fast and firm surface, with accurate ball striking, and has historically gained more strokes total on this course than anyone else in the field. If he can clean things up off the tee, he’s a solid bet for the week.
Viktor Hovland (+3500)
Viktor Hovland is hungry for a win and this could be his moment. He has gone on the record stating how much he loves TPC Southwind and after tying for second last year at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, he will be gunning for the top spot. With only one win in 2025 at the Valspar Championship, Hovland has admittedly not been the best this season. But he’s been getting his game back into shape in the past few weeks, including a third place finish at the US Open.
In the last 36 rounds, Hovland has ranked second in strokes gained on approach and first on approach from 175-200 yards, which will help here. He’s top ten in Greens in Regulation gained, as well as all the accuracy stats. He’s historically performed well on what he proclaims to be “a genius golf course,” but Viktor Hovland will want to top his past record here and hoist the cup.
Sepp Straka (+3500)
Sepp Straka is hard to get right. He always rates out well, especially in accuracy, and is consistent on approach. His fairways and greens hit percentages are both in the top ten and he’s third in the field for bogey avoidance, which will matter here. Straka is also entering this tournament ranked third in FedExCup points.
But there’s always risk, and he struggles around the green. With smaller and faster greens than average here, that becomes a little scarier, although his play has largely been flat lately. Ultimately, this is a bet on Sepp Straka’s accuracy and a hope that the rest follows.
Hideki Mastuyama (+4000)
Hideki Mastuyama is the reigning winner of the FedEx St. Jude Championship, which always makes a player a threat to win again. But this season, he can’t seem to find the fairway with a map. It’s tempting, mostly because of the long odds and his history here, but don’t get too carried away.
Other Outrights To Consider:
- Shane Lowry (+5000): Shane Lowry is accurate; he can get off the tee and fairway and he has a decent long iron game. But his putting is, to put it mildly, terrifying. To truly compete here, Lowry will need to convert his steady ball-striker status into bogeys, especially with scrambling and around the green. If his putting is okay, he’ll be in contention, so hope for Shane Lowry to get the hot hand, and then he can ride.
- Lucas Glover (+8000): Lucas Glover is a horse for the course. He plays well on courses with small greens, where the distances aren’t long enough to give him too much trouble with his less-than-stellar putting. But he’s good and accurate as a ball striker, particularly in all the key yardage ranges at TPC Southwind, including the par-4s. He can gain strokes on approach and tends to pop in the playoffs, getting red-hot on putting two years ago on this course, so watch Lucas Glover for a repeat.
- Nick Taylor (+8000): If accuracy is the game, Nick Taylor is the name. He has straight shots off the tee and on approach, so he’ll play well in the hot and dry conditions this week. Taylor is consistent, with all the necessary stats for this course looking good, even going way back. He’s been having a better-than-average year for him, so he could grind it out with good accuracy and steadfast play on and around the green. Top to bottom, Nick Taylor has the stuff to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Longshots To Consider:
- Si Woo Kim (+9000): Si Woo Kim is accurate off the tee and accurate on approach, but his putting is inconsistent and often atrocious. Part of that stems from his inability to stick with one putter, which can vary his performance wildly, but he can get nuclear hot and with these odds, it’s worth the risk. The South Korean golfer is top ten in bogey avoidance, top ten in Birdie or Better percentage, third in opportunities gained and fourth in strokes gained on par-4s. When the putts go his way, he’s a scoring machine, so he just needs to give himself great chances on approach and hope for the best.
- Emiliano Grillo (+12000): Like so many others, putting has typically been the Achilles’ heel of Emiliano Grillo. However, he’s gotten things together this season, with a second-place finish at the John Deere Classic. Grillo had a solid performance two weeks ago at the 3M Open, but then his putter went cold and things went south last week at the Wyndham Championship, losing strokes for the first time in five starts. His accuracy and iron play is stout, and he’s good at gaining opportunities. With top stats in some of the key yardage buckets at TPC Southwind, Emiliano Grillo is a great longshot bet.
- Bud Cauley (+15000): Bud Cauley is a steady-edy across the board. He’s is first in this field at bogey and double bogey avoidance. He’s top-tier for many of the accuracy stats needed here, putts well on Bermuda and is good at scrambling. The biggest concern is that he’s not great on the longer par-4s like the ones at this course, but if Bud Cauley puts it together, he could be live to win.
Good luck this week! Thanks for checking out our PGA Tour picks & predictions for who wins the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Be sure to check out our golf crew every week on the 19th Hole for more golf betting and DFS analysis!
*Photo Credit: Bill Streicher – USA Today Sports*
