This season, I will be writing a weekly article for In-Between Media (IBT), giving you my takes on the fantasy football “winners and losers” after each week of NFL action. This will be an exciting topic to cover, and I will include my reasoning behind the judgments, along with actionable analysis when possible.
My goal and basic format each week will involve presenting my winners and losers for each skill position (QB, WR, RB and TE), but the results of each week will dictate which players make each list. There will be plenty of well-known players on both ends of the spectrum, but in striving for a modicum of originality, I will mix in some players with less obvious and more subtle reasoning. That is where I believe some of the actionable advice will lie.
Week 1 was a roller coaster of injuries, as well as unexpected and downright shocking results across the NFL. But this isn’t my first rodeo, and it’s probably not yours. Every year during this first week of real games, we must walk a fine line between overreaction and legitimate concern or optimism. From what we witnessed, what can be chalked up to the volatility of every team’s first game after a long offseason versus what is more likely to be the new norm?
For Week 1, I will showcase some of my early fantasy football winners and losers, but I will also present a few players who might seem like a winner or a loser with my take on why they are not.
Fantasy Football Winners & Losers: Week 1
Winners
Calvin Ridley (WR, Jacksonville Jaguars)
I am fully prepared to eat some crow on Calvin Ridley. Well, maybe just half a crow. I was not heavily fading Ridley this offseason, but I did consider him a risky investment at the mid-to-high-end WR draft price. Due to that, I only ended up with one Ridley share across my seven redraft teams in 2023. Ridley became one of my favorite players in the NFL after he published his very open and honest telling of his story, and I am rooting for him wholeheartedly. My concern was not unique. Ridley was a WR1 in 2020 but played only five games in 2021 and missed the entire 2022 season due to suspension. Would we see the 2020 Ridley? And if we did, would it be immediate?
Ridley smashed all of those concerns in Week 1, and I do not think this is an overreaction. Ridley was Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target all game, catching eight of 11 targets for 101 yards and a TD. He also came within inches of a second TD but stepped out of bounds while tight-roping the sideline. Ridley earned the sixth-highest target share (34.4%) of Week 1, and his 11 targets were tied for fourth-highest. With only “Monday Night Football” left to go, Ridley is the Points Per Reception (PPR) WR5 on the week.
How much doubt do I now have about Calvin Ridley? pic.twitter.com/f3RzjzIE1F
— Scott Rinear (@MunderDifflinFF) September 10, 2023
According to my fantasy strength of schedule scoring system, the Jaguars have the 11th-easiest schedule for WRs, with home tilts against the Chiefs and Texans over the next two weeks. We may very well get to see WR1 Ridley (top 12) starting right now.
Puka Nacua (WR, Los Angeles Rams)
I am a lifelong Seahawks fan, so I watched every snap of the Seahawks-Rams game. Puka Nacua was the best player on the field for both teams throughout most of the day. He came into Week 1 with some buzz after a solid preseason, and his monster day was made possible by the Rams placing Cooper Kupp on Injured Reserve (IR). Word on the proverbial NFL street was that Nacua’s skill set more closely resembled Kupp than the other more experienced Rams WRs, and it rang true. I am not saying Nacua is Kupp. As a Seahawks fan, I – like most – thought the lack of Kupp would be a big advantage for the Seahawks. But Nacua did remind me of Kupp out there.
Seahawks vs Los Angeles Puka Nacua’s
— Scott Rinear (@MunderDifflinFF) September 10, 2023
Nacua snagged 11 of a league-leading 15 targets (tied with Tyreek Hill) for 119 yards and missed what would have been an amazing diving TD catch by a matter of inches. The only thing crazier than Nacua’s 40.5% target share was that it wasn’t even the highest rookie target share of Week 1 (that was Zay Flowers with 47.6%). Kupp is out for at least the first four games of the season. The only short-term negative for Nacua is the Rams’ schedule, which has them facing the 49ers in Week 2 and a road matchup with the Bengals in Week 3. He should be a top waiver add in Week 2.
Jordan Love (QB, Green Bay Packers)
A somewhat polarizing QB during the offseason, Jordan Love came into 2023 as a question mark. Taking over for long-time Packer Aaron Rodgers, Love has the youngest pass-catching group in the NFL. The top-four options include second-year WRs Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, plus rookies Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave. The young group was missing arguably their top option, as Watson sat out Week 1 with an injury.
Lined up against the division-rival Bears, Love led the Packers to a comfortable 38-20 victory. It wasn’t a high-pass volume day, as Love attempted only 27 passes and completed 55.6%. But he was one of only three QBs to throw three TDs and put up the following peripheral statistics:
- Passing yards per attempt: 9.1 (third-highest)
- Yards per completion: 16.3 (second-highest)
- Fantasy points per attempt: 0.85 (highest)
The Packers were in a positive game script for a large chunk of the game, so I would expect more passing volume in closer games. They project to have the second-easiest schedule for fantasy QBs, and Week 1 was a promising start for Love.
Kenneth Gainwell (RB, Philadelphia Eagles)
The Eagles’ RBs have been one of the trickier backfields to project all offseason. After Miles Sanders went to Carolina, Rashaad Penny was signed to a one-year deal, and the Eagles traded for D’Andre Swift. The two new RBs joined incumbents Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott to create a “too many cooks in the kitchen” situation. If you only looked at Average Draft Position (ADP), it seemed as if Swift would be heavily involved, at least within the passing game.
It is a backfield I mostly avoided because of the murkiness, but Week 1 showed us that Gainwell is the RB to roster. Penny was a healthy scratch, while Swift and Scott combined for only four touches. Meanwhile, Gainwell turned 18 touches into 74 yards and 11.4 Points Per Reception (PPR) fantasy points. There’s nothing week-winning about those numbers, but Gainwell’s arrow is pointing upward. His 78.3% RB Opportunity Share (carries plus targets divided by total team RB carries plus targets) tied for the fifth-highest on the week. Tied with who, you ask? Joe Mixon.
I don’t think the backfield stays this lopsided in Gainwell’s favor all season, but that’s a bell cow-level Opportunity Share. The entire second half was a neutral game script environment, with the Patriots surprisingly hanging tough with the Eagles until the end. This backfield will still be frustrating at points during the season, but with a rostership well under 50% across most platforms, Gainwell is another fantasy football winner and top waiver priority in Week 2.
Losers
D’Andre Swift (RB, Philadelphia Eagles)
Now that’s a segue. First of all, Swift is not in the fantasy football loser category because I think he’ll only have two touches per game. But with the somewhat mysterious cloud that has followed Swift during his short career, there has to be concern he wasn’t utilized more in a competitive Week 1 game. For reference, here are some other RBs who had similar barely-existent workloads:
- Boston Scott (RB, Philadelphia Eagles)
- Gary Brightwell (RB, New York Giants)
- DeeJay Dallas (RB, Seattle Seahawks)
- Evan Hull (RB, Indianapolis Colts)
- Jake Funk (RB, Indianapolis Colts)
- Ty Montgomery (RB, New England Patriots)
- Chris Evans (RB, Cincinnati Bengals)
After the victory, Head Coach Nick Sirianni implied that the Eagles don’t want a player like Swift to finish games with only two touches. But there’s no way I can trust putting him in my lineup until I see a usage trend in a fantasy-relevant direction. And with his cost of acquisition in the RB2 range, he’s an early-season loser.
The Seattle Seahawks
I talked up multiple Seahawks players heading into Week 1, including Geno Smith as a great option as a QB streamer or an ideal QB2 in Super Flex (two-QB) formats. The Seahawks’ offense, and particularly Geno Smith surprised everyone last year as they ended up a playoff team. With their most solid offensive line in years already in place, the team then spent high draft capital on WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and RB Zach Charbonnet to join Kenneth Walker, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. On paper, this is one of the better offensive groups in the NFL. The Rams projected as a bottom-10 (easier) fantasy matchup for QB, RB and WR. Plus, the Seahawks were at home.
Although Walker was not the highest-scoring Kenneth on the day (Gainwell edged him by 0.7 PPR points), he did finish the day with a 75%+ Opportunity Share, 20%+ Target Share and 5.3 Yards Per Carry YPC). This is a positive for Walker, at least in the short term, but Charbonnet should work himself into a bigger piece of the pie as the season progresses. The Seahawks got punched in the mouth multiple times in their own stadium. In the second half, the Seahawks offense only had 12 yards until the very end of the game, caused in part by both of their starting tackles exiting with injuries and Lockett leaving to be evaluated for a concussion. Smith finished the day with only 116 passing yards and one first-half TD to Metcalf.
Luckily, it seems the injuries to the Seahawks’ tackles are not serious, and Lockett was cleared of a concussion during the game. But outside of Metcalf’s TD, all of the Seahawks’ skill position players disappointed in Week 1 as fantasy football losers.
Christian Kirk (WR, Jacksonville Jaguars)
Christian Kirk revitalized his career in 2022, finishing as the PPR WR14. After showing flashes with the Cardinals but never quite meeting expectations, Kirk signed a lucrative contract with the Jaguars following the 2021 season. This was for an amount that led to a fair amount of jokes on social media, but Kirk lived up to the high dollar amount immediately, taking over as the Jaguars’ clear WR1 last year.
Coming into 2023, one of the offseason fantasy debates was between Kirk and teammate Ridley. Who would be better? Who would score more fantasy points? August ADPs indicated that the fantasy community was higher on Ridley, but there were plenty of people on the Kirk side of the debate.
This may be a slight “Week 1 Overreaction,” but it was not promising for Kirk, as both Ridley and Zay Jones significantly outplayed him. Here is how the trio finished the day:
Kirk ran the majority of his routes from the slot and wasn’t nearly as involved in the offense as Ridley or Jones. With TE Evan Engram’s usage (72.9% snap share, 15.6% target share, 9.9 PPR fantasy points), Kirk looks to be the odd man out for the Jaguars’ passing game in the short term.
Not What It Seems: Fantasy Football Panic Meter
The following players were disappointments in Week 1, but my concern is low moving forward (for now):
- Joe Burrow (QB, Cincinnati Bengals)
- Lamar Jackson (QB, Baltimore Ravens)
- Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Detroit Lions)
- Brandin Cooks (WR, Dallas Cowboys)
- Tee Higgins (WR, Cincinnati Bengals)
- Jahan Dotson (WR, Washington Commanders)
Here are players who were disappointments in Week 1, and I am concerned about them moving forward:
- Drake London (WR, Atlanta Falcons)
- Kyle Pitts (TE, Atlanta Falcons)
- Najee Harris (RB, Pittsburgh Steelers)
- Dameon Pierce (RB, Houston Texans)
- Tyler Boyd (WR, Cincinnati Bengals)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, New England Patriots)
- Antonio Gibson (RB, Washington Commanders)
- Kadarius Toney (WR, Kansas City Chiefs)
- Deebo Samuel (WR, San Francisco 49ers)
The following players ended up with decent fantasy days, but I am not optimistic from a season-long lens:
- Alexander Mattison (RB, Minnesota Vikings)
- Cam Akers (RB, Los Angels Rams)
- Deon Jackson (RB, Indianapolis Colts)
- Courtland Sutton (WR, Denver Broncos)
- Donald Parham Jr.(TE, Los Angeles Chargers)
Thanks for reading my Week 1 fantasy football winners and losers. As always, find me on Twitter, talking fantasy football, joking around, posting GIFs and lending my support where it’s needed @MunderDifflinFF.