“Between Bets” is an article series revealing our staff’s best wagers across the NFL, NASCAR and PGA Tour. This edition’s bets feature our favorite wagers for the 2024 Würth 400 at Dover Motor Speedway.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
2024 Würth 400 Betting Picks
- Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR)
- Hendrick Motorsports (HMS)
While preparing for this weekend’s content (of which we will have plenty, being at the track for this weekend’s race), I saw a tweet from Ifantasyrace.com, which said in part:
“Dover is a track where the best of the best shine year after year. (It’s) not a track where goofy finishes happen often.”
As he usually is, Ryan (creator of Ifantasyrace.com) is right. Each of the last 18 Dover races have been won by either Joe Gibbs Racing (in one case, Martin Truex Jr. in a Furniture Row car), Hendrick Motorsports or the retired Kevin Harvick dating back over a decade to June 2013.
The odds for this week reflect that either JGR or HMS will keep the streak going; their eight combined team cars represent eight of the top-10 odds for the weekend in terms of outrights, split up only by Ross Chastain and Ryan Blaney.
Even though I love a good longshot, there are really only two directions I can steer you in good conscience this week, so pick your poison.
Joe Gibbs Racing
There are arguments to be made for any of this quartet; all four have won at Dover at least once (Bell has two Xfinity wins and Gibbs an ARCA East win here). But Martin Truex Jr., even at a fairly juicy +600 outright on DraftKings, is the obvious pick for this weekend.
The argument can be made that the “Monster Mile” is Truex Jr.’s best track. He’s won here four times, one of which came as his first career win for a pretty mediocre, on-the-way-out team of Dale Earnhardt Inc. (DEI) in 2007. He even ran well at Dover in darker days of Michael Waltrip Racing in the No. 56.
But with the Toyotas, he’s earned a trio of wins and a trio of P2s in 2019 and 2020. In total, Truex Jr. has led over 1,000 laps here and finished T5 30% of the time and T10 in over half the time.
Hendrick Motorsports
Of course, Kyle Larson, the overall favorite in the outright market on DraftKings at +450, is a relatively sexy pick here. He’s led 899 career laps at Dover, earned T10 finishes 73.3% of the time, and, from 2019-2022, was no worse than sixth here. But I like Chase Elliott at +1100 a lot more. He’s never finished worse than 12th at Dover, save for a pair of Did Not Finishes (DNFs). The No. 9 has won twice here, and Elliott has been T5 in 69.2% of his Dover starts.
Don’t sleep on Alex Bowman at the Monster Mile either; he missed the 2023 race due to injury but has T5s in five of his last six starts at Dover.
Check out all of our content for the 2024 Würth 400:
- PropKings: 2024 Würth 400
- Between Bets: 2024 Würth 400 Outrights
- NASCAR DFS Picks, Tiers & Rankings: 2024 Würth 400
Thanks for reading my best bets for the Würth 400, and be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad! Good luck this week!
*Photo Credit: Michael C. Johnson – USA TODAY Sports*