Israel Abanikanda

Israel Abanikanda 2023 Fantasy Football Rookie Profile

Overview

Israel Abanikanda was a three-star recruit coming out of high school. Like many three-star recruits, he had an unspectacular debut in his first season at the collegiate level. As a freshman at the University of Pittsburgh (Pitt) in 2020, he finished third among RBs on the team in rushing behind then-sophomore RB Vincent Davis and senior RB A.J. Davis, playing in six games and rushing for just 95 yards on 28 attempts for the 6-5 Panthers.

However, Abanikanda broke out as a sophomore, leading the 11-3 Pitt team in rushing with 651 yards and seven TDs, despite finishing second behind A.J. Davis in carries with 123. Abanikanda also added 24 receptions for 197 yards and another TD after finishing with only two receptions for 11 yards and a TD as a freshman.

As a junior in 2022, Abanikanda seized full control of the backfield and took the Atlanta Coast Conference (ACC) by storm. He amassed 1,431 rushing yards and a whopping 21 total TDs on 239 rushing attempts and 12 receptions. Despite losing its QB to the 2022 NFL Draft and its top WR to the University of Southern California (USC), Abanikanda’s performance helped lead the way to another successful season for the 9-5 Panthers. Upon the conclusion of his junior season, Abanikanda declared for the NFL Draft.

On top of his production, Abanikanda possesses one of the most tantalizing combinations of size and speed in the 2023 RB class. He is also one of the younger prospects at only 20 years old. At his pro day on March 29, he posted a 4.39 40-yard dash to go with a 41-inch vertical jump. This is especially impressive at 5 foot-10 inches and 216 pounds. These numbers put Abanikanda in elite company (93rd percentile speed score and a 97th percentile burst score).

Pros

• Elite burst and speed – if he finds a hole, he frequently turns it into a big play
• Very dangerous in open space
• Powerful runner and tackle breaker
• Skilled at the goal line and shifty at the line of scrimmage
• Effective pass-catcher despite a limited target share

Cons

• Limited target share and route tree compared to other top RBs in this class
• Not especially elusive with movements in the second level – wins primarily with his speed in open space
• Minimal experience and limited skill set in pass protection – a few major gaffes in this area in college

Israel Abanikanda Player Comparison

More Powerful Tevin Coleman (RB, San Francisco 49ers)

Like Abanikanda, Tevin Coleman was an RB prospect whose speed and knack for big plays were his calling card. Despite also failing to top 25 receptions in any season at Indiana University, Coleman nevertheless displayed pass-catching ability at the collegiate level that translated well to the NFL. After being selected by the Atlanta Falcons in the third round of the 2015 NFL Draft, Coleman went on to post a Points Per Reception (PPR) RB2 season in his second NFL season and three consecutive top-24 finishes as part of a dynamic duo with Devonta Freeman.

After generating buzz at his pro day, Abanikanda could be a day-two selection in the NFL Draft. Like Coleman, Abanikanda is a “one-cut-and-go” style runner. He would fit best in a team that employs an outside zone scheme that will utilize his speed and pass-catching ability in space. Breakaway runs should be his bread and butter at the NFL level.

Unlike Coleman, however, Abanikanda also has the power and vision to run between the tackles. Abanikanda frequently breaks tackles and excels in short-yardage and goal-line scenarios. These skills could make him an effective runner in a variety of run schemes and increase the likelihood of fantasy relevance regardless of landing spot.

Abanikanda only ran limited types of routes at Pitt. He will likely never turn into a high-volume pass-catcher at the NFL level. However, like Coleman, he can be effective in the passing game when called upon. Around 35-40 targets per season are within the realm of possibility in the right scheme. With his speed and skill in space, even that type of target share could turn him into a dynamic weapon for an NFL team. However, he needs to develop in pass protection to fully reach his ceiling in this area.

Israel Abanikanda Fantasy Football Projection

Abanikanda probably won’t light the world on fire as a rookie. Due to his pass-blocking and route-running limitations, he is unlikely to step in on day one and be a three-down back. He will likely share a backfield committee with a more-experienced RB to begin the season. However, it’s entirely possible that he quickly establishes himself as the more dynamic and productive member of a backfield committee. With his big-play ability and nose for the end zone, Abanikanda could establish himself as a weekly upside FLEX play. If the veteran RB he is paired with were to miss time, he could shine in a lead role, as Khalil Herbert did as a rookie during the 2021 NFL season.

In early 2023 best ball drafts on Underdog Fantasy, Abanikanda currently has an Average Draft Position (ADP) of 203 (RB61) per Fantasy Pros’ best ball ADP data. With day-two draft capital and a strong landing spot like the Miami Dolphins or Philadelphia Eagles, I could foresee Abanikanda’s 2023 redraft ADP being potentially as high as the eighth or ninth round in 12-team leagues. With a less-than-ideal landing spot, he could fall to the later double-digit rounds or even go undrafted in shallower leagues. In the right situation, paired with an aging RB, I could envision selecting Abanikanda in the late single-digit or early double-digit rounds in deeper redraft leagues.

Abanikanda is currently being drafted as the RB11 in dynasty rookie drafts per Dynasty League Football (DLF) ADP. This puts him toward the end of a large tier of RBs going off the board in the mid-second to early-third round in superflex rookie drafts and late second in 1QB formats. At that price, he could easily be worth the gamble, given his age and elite athleticism.

If he ends up with third-round draft capital, Abanikanda is a player I would target in the late-first round in 1QB leagues or the early-second round in SF leagues.

Thanks for reading. Check out more of our fantasy football and other written content here at In-Between Media, or head over to our YouTube channel to get your fix via video.