Zach Evans

Zach Evans 2023 Fantasy Football Rookie Profile

Overview

Zach Evans is a junior running back prospect from the University of Mississippi (Ole Miss). Evans was a heavily sought-after five-star college recruit following a prolific high school career in Houston, Texas, rushing for nearly 5,000 yards and 76 TDs.

After his recruitment, Evans chose Texas Christian University (TCU), becoming the first five-star recruit to commit to the Horned Frogs program. While Evans didn’t put up a massive total stat line as a freshman, he played in nine games and started the last four, rushing for 415 yards on 54 carries and finishing with an elite-level 7.7 Yards Per Carry (YPC).

Evans only played in six games during his sophomore year due to a toe injury. One of the knocks on him is the notion that he split the TCU backfield with fellow 2023 RB prospect Kendre Miller in 2021. Evans and Miller did finish with similar total numbers. However, Evans did it in four fewer games. In the six games both RBs were healthy, Evans significantly out-touched Miller 92 to 57.

Evans transferred to Ole Miss for his junior season, where he rushed for 948 yards on 144 carries and nine rushing TDs. A more legitimate shared backfield situation did occur in 2022, as freshman sensation Quinshon Judkins outplayed Evans across the board. But, combined with Evans’ high school prowess, he did enough in college to show great potential at the NFL level. Without the injury during his sophomore season, he would be less of a question mark right now, as he was on pace to finish that season with 194 carries, 1,296 rushing yards, 20 receptions, 260 receiving yards and 12 TDs.

Evans finished his college career with averaging 6.8 YPC, tied with Tyjae Spears for second-best in the 2023 rookie class (behind only DeWayne McBride). Evans finished with an avoided tackles per touch rate of 22.9 percent and an average yards after contact of 4.16, both solid numbers.

Pros

• Big-play ability
• Great balance and ability to power through leg and arm tackles
• Excels at avoiding tackles at the line of scrimmage
• Powerful runner
• Strong burst when running north-south and to the edge
• Excellent athletic profile

Cons

• Limited receiving production in college
• Ball security issues
• Overtaken by a freshman during his final college season
• Below average in pass protection
• Unperformed at finishing runs

Zach Evans Player Comparison

Melvin Gordon (RB, Kansas City Chiefs)

While Melvin Gordon is slightly taller than Evans, they share a similar athletic profile, and Evans’ strengths, including his big play ability, mirror Gordon’s strengths when he came out of the University of Wisconsin in 2015.

Going by Evans’ 40-yard dash time from his high school workout, they are both right around 4.50 seconds, with Evans having a faster 20-yard shuttle time. They both exhibited excellent burst and decisiveness, running through holes in college. Both regularly beat defenders around the edge, and their speed in the open field caused poor angles by defenders. Evans is better than Gordon at keeping runs north-south, avoiding the urge to bounce runs outside as much as Gordon did. Gordon also had a limited receiving production profile in college and was not seen as a three-down back in the NFL.

Gordon is closer to a ceiling comparison for Evans. Gordon had a massive senior year in college, putting up numbers Evans never approached. But Evans declared early, forgoing his senior season at Ole Miss, and the statistics from their first three college seasons are comparable. Evans has the skillset to be a successful NFL RB. If he can improve his pass protection and receiving output and buy into the program that he lands in, Evans has the potential to excel at the next level early and often.

Zach Evans Fantasy Football Projection

At the outset of his college career, many projected him to be the eventual RB2 behind only Bijan Robinson in this class. But he did not accumulate enough of a college production profile for that to remain anywhere near consensus. A few may still have him as the rookie RB2 in this class, but he could also fall closer to the RB8. That will hinge heavily on his draft capital and landing spot. Evans may have the skillset to be a three-down RB in the NFL, but there is risk in that projection due to his limited receiving work in college. 

Evans will likely start his NFL career as part of a shared backfield, where he will have to prove himself to ascend to fantasy relevance in his rookie season. His draft cost will not be steep in redraft formats, but he sits amongst a group of soon-to-be rookie RBs in a deep RB class who will be late-round dart throws in redraft. But his athleticism and play-making ability could set him apart in the right situation.

In dynasty fantasy football leagues, Evans could go as early as the late first-round or as late as the mid-to-late second-round in superflex formats. If he falls that far, he is the type of risk-reward RB I will be targeting with a mid-second-round pick. At that cost, it is worth the risk that he reaches the potential so many saw when almost every college in the country wanted him out of high school. 

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