The 2025 PGA Tour season culminates this week with what’s sure to be a nailbiter of a TOUR Championship!
Scottie Scheffler remains red-hot after winning the BMW Championship for Round Two of the FedExCup Playoffs and sits with double the points of anyone else in the field. It’s a comfortable lead for the season-long trophy, but anything can happen with the tournament, and the field will be out for blood.
The 2025 TOUR Championship begins with the 30 best golfers in the world and $10 million on the line, but only one can end on top!
(Odds and salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
Scottie Scheffler Gets the Dough | TOUR Championship 2025 Bets
Course Layout
Since 2004, the TOUR Championship has been proudly hosted at the East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia. The course is a par-70 played over 7,450 yards, with Bermuda grass for both the fairways and greens. However, changes have been made to some of the holes at East Lake since previous years, including widening fairways and lengthening distances off the tee. With penalizing rough and plenty of water and sand hazards, it’s a fitting course to cap off the season.
Course Strategy
Unlike many other PGA tournaments, course history matters here. With over 20 years of the TOUR Championship at East Lake, there’s plenty of history for both individual performances and trends. Length and accuracy are paramount here, but there are multiple ways to win.
With the recent course changes, the long approaches onto deceptively small greens make this a true second-shot course, favoring long ball-strikers who are good at getting onto the green. There is undulation in the greens, but putting skills and play around the green typically won’t make or break a performance. Accuracy and approach are crucial, however, and one cannot make a mistake. Additionally, the FedExCup challengers may need to contend with the weather. There is a chance of rain on all four days of the tournament, and temperatures in the mid-80s won’t provide a respite. East Lake Golf Club will provide a stern test of the entire bag for the finalists.
Building Our Betting Model
- Good Drives Gained
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Proximity on Approach (150-200 Yards)
- Putting on Bermuda Grass
- Scrambling Off Fairway
Players to Target for TOUR Championship 2025:
Scottie Scheffler (+180)
Scottie Scheffler is unquestionably the best golfer on the planet right now. The course is practically made for him, not to mention the fact that he won here last year. This bet will not make a lot of money, but it is easy money. Scheffler typically doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, so as long as he’s locked in, everyone else can go home. There are too many stats to even list here for why he’s the likely winner, and frankly, it’s unnecessary at this point. Scottie Scheffler will get the dough and you can get yours too, just probably not ten milli.
Rory McIlroy (+800)
If anyone can challenge Scottie Scheffler, it’s Rory McIlroy. As of late, he’s always the bridesmaid, never the bride, but McIlroy is one of only two players to win the TOUR Championship three times. The other golfer to achieve a three-peat? None other than Tiger Woods. The course history is here for McIlroy and he can do it if he’s on, but that’s the big question.
While it hasn’t shown results in the standings since the Masters, Rory McIlroy has still been hot in the stats. Just last week, he gained 3.5 strokes putting and 3.6 strokes off the tee, the latter of which is a category where McIlroy pretty consistently edges out Scheffler. While it seems like the Northern Irishman has been struggling a bit lately, he’s proven time and time again that he is more than capable and can get hot. He’s still playing well in the short game and putting; he just needs to up his approach game. At these odds, Rory McIlroy is one of the best bets for a worthy challenger.
Tommy Fleetwood (+1400)
Tommy Fleetwood, a hopeful winner of a PGA Tour event someday. Will that day come this weekend at the 2025 TOUR Championship, of all tournaments? Unlikely, but stranger things have happened!
Fleetwood is talented, to be sure. He’s accurate off the tee. He’s first in the field in strokes gained on par-4s and in bogey avoidance. He’s second in the field in good drives gained and third in scrambling. He’s sixth in putting on Bermuda grass. He’s consistent and this course sets up well for his skills. Tommy Fleetwood could take advantage of the smaller field to finally truly shine, so he’s a fun player for a little betting sprinkle.
Other Outrights To Consider:
- JJ Spaun (+2500): The results speak for themselves with JJ Spaun. He is unquestionably on fire, finishing in second place to Justin Rose two weeks ago at the BMW Championship. Spaun is also top ten among the field in all stats other than proximity on approach and putting. Putting not a particularly sticky stat at East Lake, so as long as he’s alright with the approach, Spaun should be just fine.
- Viktor Hovland (+2800): Viktor Hovland is no stranger to the TOUR Championship or this course. He has a win under his belt from 2023 and was in the hunt pretty much every other time he’s played here. Hovland is a true ballstriker, gaining 4.5 strokes on average on approach over the last five starts. He’s also been gaining strokes off the tee lately, an area where he usually struggles. The newly-widened landing areas are right in his sweet spot, which should help Hovland even more this week.
- Ben Griffin (+3500): Sure, Ben Griffin has been a little catastrophic off the tee at times. But his short game has been amazing and he’s gaining 2.5 strokes on putting. Not to mention, Griffin’s approach game was locked in last week, and he’s been playing all-around great golf as of late. As long as he doesn’t lose strokes off the tee, Ben Griffin can keep it consistent enough in the rest of his game to make a decent bet at slightly longer odds.
Longshots To Consider:
- Akshay Bhatia (+5000): Akshay Bhatia is honed in, and he has been playing better than ever. His overall approach game is excellent, currently sitting at fourth in general approach, and it’s not just with the short irons anymore. He is tenth in strokes gained on par-4s and ninth in birdie or better percentage. While Bhatia does need to clean up putting in the off-season, even that’s been his career-best, which is not saying much as he’s 27th in this field on Bermuda grass. That won’t hinder him too much, though. Askhay Bhatia is creative, consistent and he can play through the whole bag.
Good luck this week! Thanks for checking out our PGA Tour picks & predictions for who wins the 2025 TOUR Championship.
Be sure to check out our golf crew every week on the 19th Hole for more golf betting and DFS analysis!
*Photo Credit: Steve Roberts – USA Today Sports*
