Welcome back to another “Survivor 49” episode recap.
A boyband forms on the merged tribe, an idol is bluffed and multiple advantages are played. First, I’ll recap the episode and then provide updated betting odds for the remaining castaways. Finally, in the words of the great Tony Vlachos, I will highlight our “top five, baby” – the five players who not only made a significant impact this episode but are also set up for future success.
Let’s return to Fiji.
(Warning: Spoilers Ahead)
“Survivor 49” Episode 10 Recap + Castaway Betting Odds
Episode Recap
Camp Life
The players return to camp following Alex’s vote-out, and Kristina says she does not trust a single person besides Steven. Unfortunately for her, Savannah, Sophie, Rizo and Soph want Steven out next as he is an immunity threat. Sage and Jawan’s close duo ship continues, as she tells him about Kristina’s idol.
Jawan then goes to Steven and tests him by saying he thinks Kristina may have something. Steven does not come clean about her idol to Jawan, and believes that it is a secret. Little does he know the whole tribe will learn she has it.
Reward Challenge
The contestants arrive triumphantly by boat for their next reward challenge. Like last week, they are competing in two teams of four, with the winning team earning a trip to the sanctuary to enjoy burgers and hot dogs.
Before the challenge begins, Kristina is clearly struggling. She breaks down on the mat and cries out yet again about the loss of her mom. Jeff Probst handles the situation with grace and asks her about her mom, which leads her to calm down.
In the reward, castaways are tasked with climbing up a ladder, swimming out to small docks, and then navigating a balance beam before ultimately retrieving buoys to swing into place. The Yellow team, comprised of four players whose names start with the letter “S,” wins reward.
At the sanctuary, we see the players enjoying their hot dogs and hamburgers. I am a noted hamburger enthusiast, and those burgers looked delicious! The reward itself is shown for only a few minutes, but we do see Sage pitch a Savannah vote to Sophie. Sage has wanted Savannah out for a long time.
Camp Life Part 2
Back at camp, Rizo feels like he let the team down in the reward challenge. Jawan catches a fish for the tribe with the Hawaiian Sling. He says, “It feels good to catch a fish for the people who did not win the reward.”
When the reward winners return to camp, we get a “Survivor” first. A boy band is formed! Who needs N’Sync or the Backstreet Boys when you have Rizo, Steven and Jawan!
Sadly, this band is not a cohesive group. Shortly after they release their first single, Rizo pitches a Steven vote to Jawan and Sage. Savannah thinks that Steven is her biggest competition in the challenges. Savannah trusts Sage and Jawan more after the MC and Alex votes, whereas Rizo is a bit uncertain about them.
Finally, Soph gives us another potential winner quote, stating, “I can make nice when I’m a millionaire back home.”
Immunity Challenge
The castaways arrive at the immunity challenge, and Jeff presents them with a classic “Survivor” dilemma. He offers the castaways a bag of rice for the rest of the game if three players sit out the immunity challenge. Jawan attempts to negotiate with Jeff, but makes the mistake of setting a lower bar before giving him the chance to set one himself. Jeff declines his offer, and there is limited interest in sitting out the challenge.
Players start the challenge by crawling through a tube that flips when they make it halfway through. Players then pull discs up through a puzzle, and then move puzzle pieces while navigating a balance beam. Steven takes an early lead on the challenge, but Sophie catches up quickly. Sophie makes quick work of the puzzle, winning her second individual immunity!
Tribal Council
The scramble before tribal commences back at camp. Sage and Jawan see this as the chance to take a shot at Savannah, and hopefully flush Rizo’s idol. Sage tells Sophie “her gut” says Kristina has an idol, and that she wants advantages out of the game. Sophie tells the viewers in a confessional that she needs Savannah in the game, and that she is a “challenge shield” for her. She then leaks to Savannah that Sage and Jawan are flipping on her.
Kristina thinks that Steven will be targeted here, and intends to play her idol on him. Her idea for the vote is to place one vote on Rizo, in case Rizo plays his idol on Savannah.
Savannah then asks Kristina who she is considering for the vote, and Kristina cowers in fear and is unable to hold a conversation with her about it. She thinks that tonight is a good night to play her extra vote, in case of a 4-4 tie, and suggests putting five votes on Sage. Sophie originally wanted Steven out, but between Sage and Jawan, she prefers Jawan go. Soph tells Rizo and Savannah that they should go with Sophie’s plan to make sure she is locked in with the three of them and does not flip in the future. Sophie says to the viewers that “This tribal could go down as one of the craziest in history.”
At tribal, Rizo asks why people are scared to be there. “Tribal is where the game lives and dies,” he exclaims. Kristina, who struggles to lie, thinks everyone else is a great liar and is unsure what the plan is. Sophie mentions that there are several advantages in the game, and it is hard to take anything at face value. Jeff asks Savannah what she can rely on in this game, and she says that you are forced to rely on your “gut instinct” and the “intricacies of the other people.
Rizo says that “Tonight will be a blindside” and “the truth will come out at the vote.”
The players vote, and when Jeff calls for advantages, Kristina plays her idol on Steven. Rizo then approaches Jeff and plays his idol on Savannah. However, it is not a hidden immunity idol! So all votes for Savannah will count.
Jawan is blindsided in a 5-3-1 vote, with Savannah catching three votes and Rizo receiving one. Jawan takes his vote out in stride and becomes the 11th player to leave the game.
“Survivor 49” Castaway Betting Odds
Each week, I’ll rank and pair the remaining “Survivor 49” castaways with betting odds to win the game. These odds are subject to change after each episode. When castaways are eliminated, edits become clearer. As a result, win equities will diverge, and odds will become more favorable to some and less favorable to others.
Rizo’s odds improve after a strong showing here with his fake idol play and strong read on the game. He is not considered a challenge threat like Savannah, Sophie or Steven, and has played a really strong strategic game. Sage’s odds drop here, as do Kristina’s. Neither of them has any control of the game at this point. Kristina played her idol incorrectly and has not shown the strategic acumen the other players have.
- Savannah (+275)
- Soph (+300)
- Rizo (+350)
- Sophie (+900)
- Sage (+1000)
- Steven (+1400)
- Kristina (+2500)
The “Top Five, Baby!”
“Top five, baby!” The phrase coined by the great Tony Vlachos in “Survivor Cagayan” rings true here and will throughout the season. The five most impactful castaways this episode and moving forward, in my eyes, are as follows:
Savannah
Savannah catches three votes here! She plays the extra vote she won at the Final Ten, and had a stray vote not been thrown on Rizo, it would have made the difference here. Savannah does not get her ideal target in Sage out of the game, but she helps flush an idol. I have her slightly ahead of Soph as my top contender, as Savannah is more of an immunity threat.
Soph
Soph is more under the radar this episode, but is shown as perceptive. She agrees to Sophie’s preference for the vote so that Sophie, Soph, Savannah and Rizo will have a majority at the Final Seven. She also holds on to her Knowledge is Power Advantage. This gives us a potentially funky scenario, where Soph could steal Rizo’s idol. I am curious if she will follow through on this, as it could be a game-winning move.
Soph gives us a winner’s quote early in the episode, saying, “I can make nice when I am a millionaire back home.” This is the second time this season she has given us a quote like this. I am curious if this is a red herring and Savannah or Rizo wins, or if it is not, and she pulls out the win.
Rizo
He’s a boy band member, the “Rizz God” and now a fake idol player. What can’t this man do? It is clearly a three-horse race for who will win this season, and because Rizo has a public idol, I do fear for him a bit. Besides that, he has played a strong strategic game, is not viewed as a challenge threat and seems well-liked by everyone, including the jury. My gut tells me he falls just short, but his game is strong enough to justify the current odds.
Sophie
Welcome to the “Top Five, Baby!” Sophie! Despite her invisibility in the premerge, Sophie is an integral part of the merge and has now won two immunity challenges. She flipped on MC and the old Hina tribe at the right moment, positioning herself as the fourth member of the Soph-Savannah-Rizo group. My concern for her is her lack of strong connections, and I could see her either losing at the Final Tribal Council, or being voted out soon because she is a challenge threat. That said, she should survive the next vote, given the 4-3 split among the remaining players.
Sage
It was a rough episode for Sage. She lost her closest ally, Jawan, and was unable to successfully vote out Savannah. Sage has wanted to vote Savannah out for the longest time, and I am struggling to see how she does it now. She was the stronger of the two strategically in the Sage-Jawan duo, and I am curious to see how she navigates the upcoming rounds.
Thanks for reading my “Survivor 49″ Episode 10 Recap + Castaway Betting Odds.” For more entertainment content, check out our other blogs here at In-Between Media (IBT). And be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @robbrereton for more “Survivor” content.
