Welcome back to another “Survivor 49” episode recap.
We see a de-merge – kind of – a Group idol hunt and the majority turning on each other. First, I’ll recap the episode and then provide updated betting odds for the remaining castaways. Finally, in the words of the great Tony Vlachos, I will highlight our “top five, baby” – the five players who not only made a significant impact this episode but are also set up for future success.
Back to the beaches in Fiji.
(Warning: Spoilers Ahead)
“Survivor 49” Episode 8 Recap + Castaway Betting Odds
Episode Recap
Camp Life
The players return to camp following the 7-4 vote on Nate, with Steven receiving four votes from Nate, Savannah, Soph and Rizo. Jawan says “tribal went perfectly” and that “nothing is sweeter than a little bit of revenge.” Soph was completely bamboozled by the vote, and that her close ally and fellow original Kele member Alex left her out of it. Alex tells Soph that she is safe and that Steven’s next targets are Savannah and Rizo.
MC played her idol at tribal, and she justifies it by explaining that she “needed one tribal to see who was really on her side.” Echoing Steven, Jawan also said his next targets are Savannah and Rizo, but he plans to act as if he wants to work with them again.
The next morning, a group idol hunt commences among the players on the right side of the vote. Steven says the idol hunt is “defensive” as he wants to block Savannah, Rizo and Soph from finding an idol. Kristina ends up finding it in a tree! The idol is good through the Final Five tribal council.
Back at camp, Savannah feels like the pariah of the group. No one wants anything to do with her. Sage thinks Savannah is trying to get a reaction out of her, while Steven says she is rubbing people the wrong way. Savannah talks to Steven about her experience at a previous job, where he coworkers would joke around with her when the camera was rolling, but would avoid her otherwise, and did not want to be her friend. She conflates that experience with her experience on Lewatu, the new name of the merged tribe.
Immunity Challenge
Jeff announces the immunity challenge is a “Survivor” classic where players will need to stand on increasingly smaller footholds. The last player left standing wins immunity.
However, there is a twist! The tribe is randomly divided into two groups of five. The groups are as follows:
The winning group avoids tribal council and wins reward! The reward is a meal of deli sandwiches and some delectable chocolate chip cookies. Additionally, the player who stands the longest and wins immunity for their group also gains an advantage.
Everyone makes it through the first two footholds, but once the players hit the third, they begin to struggle. Kristina is the first to drop, with Alex falling shortly thereafter.
Savannah is the last standing, literally, in the challenge for Yellow, while Sophie and Sage remain for Blue. Sage drops next, and Sophie and Savannah engage in a test of endurance on the final foothold. After a lengthy amount of time elapses, Sophie drops, and Savannah wins immunity for the Yellow Group and an advantage!
Old Uli
The losing Blue team heads to the Old Uli beach. Jawan, Sophie, MC and Sage all agree that Rizo needs to go. The problem is that Rizo has an idol. Sophie pitches a plan where she is the decoy vote to try to make Rizo comfortable.
Next, Sophie tells MC that she plans to throw a stray vote on Jawan, so if Rizo does an idol, there would be a revote. MC then leaks this to Jawan, who leaks it to Sage, who leaks it back to Sophie. This game of telephone results in a chasm of trust between MC and Sophie. Meanwhile, Jawan and Sage pitch Sophie as a challenge threat to Rizo. They also tell Rizo that it is difficult to trust MC, as she wasted her idol. Rizo is not convinced that Sophie will keep winning challenges and is not as threatened by her.
Savannah wins the advantage and collects it at treemail. Her advantage is the chance to join the Blue group at tribal, with the option to cast or bank a vote. Savannah arrives by boat at the Old Uli camp, and the other competitors are shocked!
After her arrival, the players continue to scramble before tribal. Jawan says his gut is telling him to go for Sophie and to keep Rizo. Jawan and Sage then debate the merits of voting out Sophie or MC. Meanwhile, Rizo shares that he is more threatened by MC. Sophie comes clean to Jawan about the stray vote plan, but also tells him that MC does not have his back. Rizo, miraculously in a good position in this group, tells Sophie he wants MC gone.
Tribal Council
The players head to tribal council, and the first member of the jury, Nate, watches. He looks particularly dapper with a freshly shaven face and a trendy fedora hat.
Sophie states that it is either her or MC tonight, and pitches to the group why she should stay. MC does the same and pulls aside Jawan one-on-one for a conversation during tribal. This turns the tribal into a live tribal of sorts, where players whisper to one another to discuss the vote. Most of this is done while Sophie sits by herself. Sophie’s final pitch is that she is willing to move forward with Jawan, Savannah, Sage and Rizo.
The players vote, and Savannah banks her vote instead of using it here. Rizo saves his idol, too. MC is voted out 4-1, with Sophie receiving a vote from MC.
“Survivor 49” Castaway Betting Odds
Each week, I’ll rank and pair the remaining “Survivor 49” castaways with betting odds to win the game. These odds are subject to change after each episode. When castaways are eliminated, edits become clearer. As a result, win equities will diverge, and odds will become more favorable to some and less favorable to others.
I have ranked players with a poorer edit, with much lower odds. MC, the player with the eighth-best odds to win, went home this week. The way the majority from the merge vote cannibalized themselves at this tribal shows to me that my current front runners to win should remain as such.
Rizo’s odds increase as he holds onto his idol despite it being public. Kristina’s odds are still low due to her lower visibility, but increase as she found a hidden immunity idol at the beginning of the episode. Sophie takes the bottom spot, as her visibility was so limited to begin the season. Despite an increased emphasis on her in the last few episodes, she is clearly viewed as a threat and is unlikely to have longevity in this game.
- Soph (+325)
- Savannah (+400)
- Alex (+500)
- Rizo (+525)
- Jawan (+900)
- Sage (+1100)
- Steven (+1200)
- Kristina (+1600)
- Sophie (+2000)
The “Top Five, Baby!”
“Top five, baby!” The phrase coined by the great Tony Vlachos in “Survivor Cagayan” rings true here and will throughout the season. The five most impactful castaways this episode and moving forward, in my eyes, are as follows:
Soph
Soph avoids tribal council and reconnects with Alex. Her positioning remains very strong, as she is not viewed as an imminent threat despite having a strong social game. Both Rizo and Savannah are viewed as much more threatening than her at this juncture, and she hasn’t made any enemies.
Savannah
It was a strong comeback episode for Savannah. She may be the self-proclaimed tribe pariah, but she wins immunity and an extra vote, and her closest ally, Rizo, retains his immunity idol. Savannah received a significant amount of screentime here, furthering the narrative that she is a significant player this season. She bounces back well from Nate’s departure with MC leaving, someone Savannah did not trust.
Alex
It was a Quieter episode from Alex. He wins immunity but is shown strategizing with Soph. His odds to win remain the same for me, and I’m sure we will see more of him in the upcoming episodes. He is in a comfortable spot in the game and continues to receive a strong, positive edit.
Rizo
This was Rizo’s best episode since the premiere. Not only does he retain his idol, but he also sends home his desired target in MC. The fact that Rizo escapes this round without playing his idol is truly impressive. That said, he and Savannah are still considered huge threats in the game.
Jawan
Jawan maintains his spot in the top five. He struggled to trust MC, as she had played her immunity idol when Jawan insisted she was safe at the last tribal council. He gets Sophie to admit that she considered voting for him, and then she votes with him to take out MC.
Jawan has received more of an underdog edit, and so I struggle to see how he wins the season. Still, he has had a strong stretch of episodes and has recovered very well from being on the bottom of the original Uli tribe.
Thanks for reading my “Survivor 49″ Episode 8 Recap + Castaway Betting Odds.” For more entertainment content, check out our other blogs here at In-Between Media (IBT). And be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @robbrereton for more “Survivor” content.
