The premiere of “Survivor 49” just wrapped up, and boy, do we have a lot to talk about. Can you believe this is the 49th season of “Survivor”? Could Jeff Probst have imagined back in Borneo that 25 years later he would be hosting a player known as the “Rizz God”?
Let’s first run through the episode, and then I will provide betting odds for the remaining castaways, and in the words of the great Tony Vlachos, “our top five, baby” – the five players who not only made a significant impact this episode but are also set up for future success.
(Warning: Spoilers Ahead)
“Survivor 49” Episode 1 Recap + Castaway Betting Odds
Episode Recap
The Marooning
As is typical for the marooning nowadays, the castaways approach the beach via speedboat, split into three tribes: Hina, Kele and Uli. Hina dons the yellow buffs, while Uli sports red and Kele rocks with the blue buffs.
Of interest at the initial beach meet and greet with Jeff is that Jason immediately mentions he was an alternate for the season and had just found out the night before that he would be competing. Turns out, MC on Hina was also an alternate! Alternates are sequestered with the rest of the cast before the game, so I do not think it would give either MC or Jason an inherent disadvantage to mention that, though it is interesting to see it directly mentioned on the show. This feels like the start of a potential underdog narrative for Jason.
Also of note at the marooning is Savannah’s first confessional. She exclaims, “easiest million I will ever make,” implying that the personalities here on “Survivor” will be easier to navigate and manage than in her former career in news broadcasting. Meanwhile, Sage brings a more frantic energy to the group, telling Jeff that when she is excited and nervous, she pees a lot. This sets the stage for Sage to be a comedic presence throughout the episode, and hopefully moving forward.
In the marooning challenge for camp supplies, the tribes are required to carry crates through the woods and by barge in the water to build a 3D puzzle. Despite the strength of Jake and Alex, the Kele tribe struggles. Ultimately, the Hina tribe manages to work well together, solving the puzzle quickly and winning the challenge in style as MC jumps to ring the bell. As the losing tribes, Kele and Uli must each send a representative to compete for more modest camp supplies. Kele chooses Rizo, and Uli chooses Alex.
Rizo vs. Alex
Rizo and Alex compete to win a pot for their tribe. Competing comes with a price: the opportunity cost of making an initial impression and bonding with your new tribemates back at camp. However, it also presents the opportunity to win something for the tribe. Alex solves the puzzle much quicker than Rizo, but is unable to find his ship’s wheel in the location provided. Rizo takes advantage of this by looking at Alex’s solved puzzle to complete it faster while Alex is out digging. Rizo also shares multiple personal anecdotes about his family during this competition. Eventually, Rizo emerges victorious despite Alex’s head start, winning supplies for the Uli tribe.
Camp Life
Our reward winners, the Hina tribe, return to camp with their supplies. We see less of Hina this episode than their counterparts at Uli and Kele. “Discount Ryan Reynolds”, aka Steven, is a standout from Hina. Steven shares the story of his hearing aids with the tribe, and also shares his fears of paranoia with Matt.
Matt also states in a confessional that he may be left out as the elder statesman of the tribe. Yet, he is shown in a positive light by both starting the fire for the tribe and then later bonding with Steven on the beach.
On the Kele tribe, Alex returns to the tribe with nothing following his loss to the “Rizz God.” Despite the loss, Alex is welcomed by the tribe and immediately forms an obvious bromance with Jake. Sophi forms an alliance of three with Jake and Alex, and bonds with both Jessie and Annie. Meanwhile, Jake steals Nicole’s left shoe and plans to steal a different shoe every day! Jeremiah and Jake discuss being the only Canadian’s on the tribe, and Jake mentions how he likes Jeremiah despite their differences.
Moving to the Uli tribe, Rizo triumphantly returns to the beach with supplies. Sage pontificates about “aqua-dumping” and bonds with Janet, exclaiming they have “soul sister vibes.” Meanwhile, Savannah is portrayed as the strategic guru of Uli. She forms a duo with Nate, discussing a Shannon, Savannah, Rizo and Nate alliance with him. Savannah, Juwan and Janet also form an alliance. Juwan is later shown struggling to make fire for the tribe and is seen as a liability by Savannah. If Uli loses the next immunity challenge, I could see Juwan being voted out.
Immunity Challenge
The tribes pull a 200-pound snake through the woods and a pit. Then, they must work together to complete a puzzle. I enjoy challenges like these because they make the tribe work together as a team. These also test the patience of some tribe members, depending on performance.
Hina works well together, like they did in the marooning challenge for supplies, and wins immunity first. Nicole and Jeremiah struggle with the challenge for Kele, specifically with the maze puzzle. Uli also wins immunity, sending Kele to the first tribal council of the season.
Tribal Council
Back at Kele camp, the alliance of Sophi, Alex and Jake controls the vote. Nicole throws up at camp, and her tribe members speculate that she is a weak link. Annie worries that her age could leave her as an outlier, but Sophi reassures her. Annie then tells Sophi that she would want one of Alex or Jake out after they vote out Nicole. Sophi leaks this to Alex and Jake, and they consider voting for Annie.
Like in previous new era seasons, the Shot in the Dark is in effect! Playing a shot in the dark trades your vote for a one in six shot at immunity. At the tribal, the whole tribe jokes around and appears cohesive. This means that the majority alliance must have made both Nicole and Annie feel safe, as neither of them speaks of being paranoid or nervous. Nicole is voted out five to one, and nobody says goodbye on the way out.
“Survivor 49” Castaway Betting Odds
Each week, I’ll rank and pair the remaining “Season 49” castaways with odds to win the game. These odds are subject to change after each episode. As castaways are eliminated and edits become clearer. As a result, win equities will diverge and odds will become more favorable to some and less favorable to others.
I have ranked players with a poorer edit, with much lower odds. For example, Jawan struggled to start the fire and was viewed as a potential liability by Savannah. Annie’s plan for the next vote on the Kele tribe was leaked by Sophi to Jake and Alex. Thus, I have designated the lowest odds to the two of them, as I think either of them is likely next to get voted out of the game. I am basing my ranking of the remaining 17 castaways on confessionals, perceived standing in the tribe, challenge strength and alliances. After this ranking is revealed, I will delve into the ‘Top Five” players that I believe have the best chance to win the game.
- Sophi (+400)
- Savannah (+500)
- Matt (+600)
- Alex (+650)
- Rizo (+750)
- Nate (+900)
- Steven (+900)
- Jake (+1000)
- Shannon (+1200)
- MC (+1200)
- Jeremiah (+1500)
- Sage (+1800)
- Jason (+2000)
- Kristina (+2000)
- Sophie (+2000)
- Jawan (+2500)
- Annie (+2500)
The “Top Five, Baby!”
“Top five, baby!” The phrase coined by the great Tony Vlachos in “Survivor Cagayan” rings true here and will throughout the season. The five most impactful castaways this episode and moving forward, in my eyes, are as follows:
Sophi
Sophi currently has a stranglehold on the Kele tribe; it is truly impressive. She made inroads with every single player, is in two alliances and is distributing information effectively. Sophi is in a trio with “brochachos” Alex and Jake, a foursome with Alex, Jake and Jeremiah, plus a duo with Annie. Sophi leaked Annie’s plan to Jake and Alex, and still had enough influence to keep Annie in the game over Nicole.
She is spinning a web around the Kele tribe, as demonstrated below:
Savannah
Savannah appears to be the most strategic player in the game outside Sophi. She is well-positioned in her tribe. Her confessionals exude confidence and swagger. Her bonds with the women and Nate appear strong. Savannah’s edit is very strong; it could be a red herring that she gets cut close to the end. I will believe it when I see it, and for now, I am really high on her game.
Matt
Matt received a very positive edit on a tribe that won both challenges and had limited strategic content. He starts the fire and forms a bond with Steven. The growth narrative on “Survivor” rarely results in a win, and I believe Steven is getting that narrative on the Hina tribe. Matt continues to gain favor with his tribe and could emerge as a winning candidate once some of the overtly strong players are cut.
Alex
Alex rebounded spectacularly from a disastrous performance in the competition versus Rizo. He formed a duo with Jake and two alliances. In addition, Jake is the bigger target between the two of them in their duo. If the tides turn against Alex, Jake likely gets the boot first. I think Alex is crafty and social, yet subdued enough to navigate his way through this game.
Rizo
Rizo received 12 confessionals in the first episode. Yes, 12! He spoke about his family and his upbringing, and how he was the first of his family to graduate from college. Usually, players with such a strong personal narrative do not win but are integral parts of the season. I think this could be the case with Rizo. He is cheeky and fun, while appearing to be safe if the Uli tribe attends tribal council.
Thanks for reading my “Survivor 49″ Premiere Recap + Castaway Betting Odds.” For more entertainment content, check out our other blogs here at In-Between Media (IBT). And be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @robbrereton for more “Survivor” content.
