Welcome to our “Survivor 50” Episode 7 recap + castaway betting odds!
Coach formulates haikus and a split vote plan, plus manages to upset half the tribe all in one 90-minute episode!
Let’s head back over to Fiji for “The Coach Show.”
(Warning: Spoilers Ahead)
“Survivor 50” Episode 7 Recap + Castaway Betting Odds
Episode Recap
Camp Life
The castaways return back to camp, group by group. First, we have the group that voted out Genevieve. Aubry promised before tribal to play her idol, but claims to Christian and Rick that she “forgot to” in the moment. Meanwhile, in her confessional, Aubry states that she didn’t need to play it once Genevieve played her Shot in the Dark. Promising to play the idol in the first place was a mistake, and Aubry should’ve just remained ambiguous in her intentions.
The remaining two groups return, and Dee sees that Kamilla was voted out. She is very upset at Jonathan for flipping, even though she lied to Jonathan about the vote before when Charlie was voted out. Jonathan intentionally escalates the argument to place a larger target on Dee’s back, as he no longer trusts her. Coach manages to get in the mix, too! Coach, who values honesty and integrity, also wants Dee out for her excessive lying, which is ironic, when he lied to her about Emily’s intentions in the game. Coach begins to formulate haikus in the hammock related to players in the game, and his fellow castaways are not amused. Ozzy and Rizo return from Exile Island early the next morning, and are shell-shocked to see three players voted out. Coach quickly approaches Rizo about working together and invites him into the Four Horseman alliance with Coach, Joe and Jonathan. This isn’t too appealing to Rizo, as he feels like the fourth in that group.
The Journey
A boat pulls up to camp, and one player must go on a journey. No one wants to go, and so Chrissy comes up with an idea for everyone to put their Shots in the Dark in a bag, and the one drawn will go on a journey. Stephenie’s name is drawn, and she boards the boat. On the journey, Stephenie must balance on a perch and hold her hand in the air for an hour without moving a bucket. If she succeeds, a pot will drop, and she wins an advantage. If not, she loses her vote. Stephenie lasts the entire hour and wins the advantage, which is a Steal a Vote!
Camp Life Part 2
Following her argument with Jonathan, Dee begins to kick her game into gear. She tells Emily that Rizo has an idol, and also told Tiffany and Jonathan earlier. She continues to mobilize against Coach, along with Tiffany. However, Emily tells Rizo that she knows about his idol. He’s surprised to learn this and finds out she heard about it through Dee. Rizo and Cirie talk and agree that it may be difficult to trust Dee moving forward. Stephenie returns to camp and tells the tribe that she retained her vote in the journey, but did not win the advantage. Cirie swoops in and tells Stephenie at the water well that she knows she won something. Stephenie fesses up and tells Cirie she won a Steal a Vote. Cirie tells Stephanie she will not tell a soul, but then turns around and tells Rizo about it. Cirie and Rizo currently have intel on every single advantage in the game.
Immunity + Reward Challenge
The castaways are divided into two groups of seven for the challenge, with the winning group getting Chinese takeout back at camp. They’re also playing for immunity, as the winning group will compete for immunity shortly after the reward challenge. The groups are as follows:
- Blue Group — Christian, Dee, Emily, Joe, Ozzy, Rick, Stephenie
- Pink Group — Aubry, Chrissy, Cirie, Coach, Jonathan, Rizo, Tiffany
In the reward challenge, players must navigate a boulder over and through obstacles. Once the boulder reaches a platform, players must climb up and over the boulder. Once all players reach the platform, two players work to solve a puzzle. The Pink Group starts off quicker, but the Blue Group catches them on the puzzle and wins the reward!
In the immunity challenge, castaways stand on a beam and hold a pole with a ball balanced on a platform at the end. Players progressively move up the beam onto smaller footholds. Rick drops out of the challenge first, followed by Emily. Dee, Joe and Ozzy manage to reach the final foothold, and Ozzy gets his eighth individual immunity win on “Survivor.”
Pre-Tribal Camp Life
The castaways return to camp, and there isn’t much strategy talk among the group of seven that wins the Chinese takeout reward. Within the losing castaways, the Coach show commences. Coach proposes a split vote of sorts to work around the Shot in the Dark, with seven votes on Dee and four on Tiffany. He also wants to leave Christian out of the plan, as Christian is seen as “dangerous” and a “middle player.” Several players have issues with the split vote, including Stephenie, who has a good relationship with Tiffany and does not want to vote for her. The vote is leaked to Christian, who is open to a Dee vote here, and Coach is not happy! Rizo approaches Coach and imparts some wisdom on him, telling Coach, “we slay dragons at tribal, we don’t slay dragons at camp” in an effort to calm Coach down. Coach also explicitly tells Rick Devens that he is afraid of “middle people,” which is ironic as Rick is the definition of a middle person.
Dee and many others are sick of Coach’s directives and his approach to tribal, so Emily pitches the idea of a Coach vote, and Dee and Tiffany are down. Christian, Rick, Ozzy and Joe also seem amenable to a Coach vote, especially Ozzy, as Coach snaked him at the Fight for Supplies. The vote appears to be between Dee and Coach, and if the split plan goes through, we could see Coach go in a plurality vote.
Tribal Council
The castaways arrive at tribal council, and Jeff mentions that this is the most players we’ve ever had at one tribal council: fourteen. Emily says she’s never seen a tribe so tense following the Blood Moon tribal from the night before. Dee acknowledges that her name is out there, but as the last winner, she can be used as a shield. Rizo pontificates that “Survivor” is ultimately an individual game, but at the Final 14, it is still a team sport. Right before tribal ends, the fireworks begin. Tiffany calls Coach a “self-righteous hypocrite” and Dee begins whispering to other players that she is confident she has the numbers to send home Coach. The players vote, and at the call for advantages, Aubry plays her idol and Dee plays her Shot in the Dark. Dee is… NOT SAFE, so all votes for Dee will count. Dee goes home in an 8-4-1 vote, with four votes for Tiffany, and Tiffany voting for Coach.
Survivor 50 Castaway Betting Odds
Each week, I’ll rank and pair the remaining “Survivor 50” castaways with betting odds to win the game. These odds are subject to change after each episode. When castaways are eliminated, edits become clearer. As a result, win equities will diverge, and odds will become more favorable to some and less favorable to others.
I have ranked players with a negative or limited edit with poorer odds, so unfortunately Coach drops significantly for me this week, as I cannot see a path for him to win the game. Ozzy moves up for me, as he is really well positioned and hasn’t been viewed as a challenge threat. I’ve bumped up the odds a bit for Cirie and Aubry too, as I don’t think either of them will be targeted anytime soon. I’m still not quite sure what to do with Joe; I think he has longevity in this case, but is essentially along for the ride with limited win equity. Stephanie also jumps up a bit, and although she does not feel essential to the storyline of the season, she has a Steal a Vote now and appears to have allies.
- Christian Hubicki (+450)
- Rizo Velovic (+500)
- Cirie Fields (+650)
- Emily Flippen (+900)
- Ozzy Lusth (+1100)
- Rick Devens +120)
- Aubry Bracco (+1250)
- Jonathan Young (+1400)
- Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick (+1800)
- Joe Hunter (+2200)
- Chrissy Hofbeck (+2600)
- Benjamin ‘Coach’ Wade (+2800)
- Tiffany Ervin (+3000)
Top Five Baby!
“Top five, baby!” The phrase coined by the great Tony Vlachos in “Survivor Cagayan” rings true here and will throughout the season. The five most impactful castaways this episode and moving forward, in my eyes, are as follows:
Christian Hubicki
Christian maintains the top spot… but just barely! Coach calls him out as a “dangerous player,” as a plan was leaked to him that any reasonable ally would leak. The Coach callout doesn’t really affect things for me, but if players like Rizo and Cirie see Christian as someone to take a shot at, he could be in trouble. His connections with Rick, Emily and Ozzy are strong and valuable, and I anticipate he will form more in the early stages of the merge.
Rizo Velovic
Rizo has the most information in the game besides Cirie and is seen as less of a threat compared to her. So despite her information advantage, I continue to give Rizo better odds, even as his idol is becoming more well-known. I don’t think anyone is targeting Rizo and he’s even on good terms with Coach. The fact that Jonathan and Rick voted for Rizo, yet do not have any noticeable animosity towards him, is a very good sign. Also, Rizo is not a threat in the challenges. I think the Rizo and Cirie duo will continue to have success in this game for a long time, and I’m excited to see what transpires.
Cirie Fields
Cirie is just so good. The way she pried the Steal a Vote information from Stephenie was incredible. This woman has such strong reads in the interpersonal relationships of “Survivor.” Cirie comes into the early merge in a strong position, both in terms of information and allegiances. No one is currently looking at her as a threat, and she is protected by both Ozzy and Rizo, who have idols. I still doubt she can win fire or an endgame challenge to win the whole season, but I would love for her to prove me wrong.
Emily Flippen
Emily is messy, but she keeps getting away with it. She plays the Q vote messy, the Mike White vote messy and here she leaks Dee’s secret back to Rizo, and Dee takes the fall for her. I do think this will catch up to her, eventually. But for now? She is seen as a number, albeit a savvy one, for Christian. I am curious if she will make inroads with players like Aubry or Tiffany who are looking for more allies.
Ozzy Lusth
Welcome to the Top Five, Ozzy! Ozzy may not be the strongest strategist, but he is well-positioned in this game. His true duo is Cirie, and he is in a trio with Cirie and Rizo. He’s also good with both Christian and Emily, and told Joe and Jonathan that he would look out for them. He has a potential nemesis in Coach, but Coach has bigger fish to fry and has essentially played himself out of contention. One important thing with Ozzy is that he is not being openly described in the edit as a challenge threat. He just won individual immunity here, and so I am curious if that will creep into the edit the next episode. Regardless, Ozzy has longevity in this game; it’s time to start looking at him as someone who can make the endgame here, and maybe, just maybe, have a chance to win.
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