Stock car racing’s best drivers haven’t had a challenge quite like this in quite some time.
Shane van Gisbergen (SVG) has been red hot in 2025 at the road courses. The Kiwi has dominated each of the summer’s three road course races, winning each of Mexico City, Chicago and Sonoma. He really hasn’t had any strong challengers in any of those races, all in all.
Before the SVG takeover, quite a few drivers considered themselves to be either favorites or sneaky underdogs with realistic chances to win when making the lefts and rights. Now, it’s probably at least 8.8 times as hard to claim a road course win, having to pass the No. 88 on track to claim victory.
But it doesn’t matter how tough the challenge is. Rest assured, the 39 others will be at the top of their game and ready to roll at Watkins Glen International.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
AJ Allmendinger Never Forgets His First | 2025 Go Bowling at The Glen Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Watkins Glen, along with Sonoma, is one of the stalwart road courses on the Cup Series schedule. It can compare closely with each of Circuit of the Americas (COTA) and Mexico City, other traditional road course facilities.
We’re also throwing in Chicago Street Course data since the series has raced there this year, adding extra flavor to this week’s IBT Betting Model powered by ifantasyrace.com.
- Watkins Glen Next-Gen Average Finish
- Watkins Glen Next-Gen Total Speed Ranking
- 2024 Watkins Glen Average Running Position
- 2025 Average Running Position at:
- Sonoma
- Chicago Street Course
- Mexico City
- COTA
- Road Course Total Speed Rankings since 2024
- Road Course Finishes since 2024
- Xfinity & Truck Series Bonus @ Watkins Glen
It’s a perfect score for SVG this week, and only two other drivers come within 20 percentage points of him. Both Christopher Bell and Chris Buescher have strong ratings and are the two most recent drivers to defeat SVG on traditional road courses. I think if anyone’s going to take down SVG, it’ll be some old-school road course specialists.
2025 Go Bowling at The Glen Picks & Predictions
Shane van Gisbergen (+140)
It doesn’t really matter how low the odds go for SVG; he’s shown he will win these races at all costs. He’s led at least 24% of the laps in every road course race this season, and that includes his lone blemish of the year (P6 at COTA). All in all, the No. 88 has led 206 of 380 laps on road courses in 2025, just over half of all laps run. Last time out at Sonoma, SVG led 97 of 110 laps, more than 88% of the race.
I think it may be a different story when the Charlotte ROVAL comes around in the playoffs. But at the series’ final traditional road course of the year, it’s the traditional winner whom I’m backing most.
Michael McDowell (+1400)
Michael McDowell has no choice but to be optimistic about his chances heading to Watkins Glen. Thankfully, the performance and results have also been on his side on road courses in 2025. McDowell was the dominant car early at Chicago before mechanical issues parked him. In the other road course races, the No. 71 has finished no worse than P11, including a P5 in Mexico and a P4 at Sonoma.
At Watkins Glen, the Arizona native has a pair of T7 finishes in the Next-Gen era. McDowell’s 13.3 average finish in 21 Next-Gen road course starts is good for sixth in the series.
A.J. Allmendinger (+2400)
A.J. Allmendinger may be the driver who has the most motivation to beat SVG at his own game. Before the Kiwi’s arrival, it was Allmendinger who was the top road course specialist in both the Cup and Xfinity series.
Allmendinger has respectable stats in the Nex-Gen car on road courses, with a win, 11 T10s and a 15.3 average finish. The only trouble is that 10 other Cup drivers are ahead of him in the latter statistic, and all of them are driving better equipment than Kaulig Racing provides.
Nevertheless, the California native has always done more with less, especially on road courses. He’s won two road course races with Kaulig and earned his first Cup Series win here in 2014 with JTG Daugherty Racing (now Hyak Motorsports).
Allmendinger has just one T10 on a road course this season, a P6 at Chicago. But at Watkins Glen, he has Next-Gen finishes of P2 and P4 on the ledger prior to a mechanical issue sidelining “The Dinger” before he could make another run at it last year here.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Go Bowling at The Glen picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
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*Photo Credit: Jamie Harms – USA TODAY Sports*
