This week’s NASCAR Cup Series race at EchoPark Speedway, just outside of Atlanta, is not only about who finishes first.
It’s the debut of the first official in-season challenge, where the top 32 drivers battle head-to-head for the next five weeks to crown a type of champion a little earlier than normal this year.
The winner gets a million bucks and a special kind of bragging rights of their own. Some drivers have said they’ll be all-in; others say they’re not focusing on it.
We’ll stick to picking outrights in this article, but the additional layer of excitement will only add to the fun of stock car racing’s summer stretch run.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Austin Cindric Topping the Charts | 2025 Quaker State 400 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Atlanta is now known as EchoPark Speedway, another change to get used to, just as we got used to the track racing like a superspeedway. Talladega stats are still useful, but Daytona’s more narrow, racier surface is the better one to look at when tallying up the stats.
To provide the best pool of data, we’ve included the whole trio of races in our IBT Betting Model, powered by ifantasyrace.com.
- Atlanta Next-Gen Average Finish
- Atlanta Next-Gen Total Speed Rankings
- 2025 Atlanta I Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2025 Talladega I Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2025 Daytona 500 Average Position & Driver Rating
- Daytona & Talladega Average Finish since 2024
Superspeedways often strike drivers with bad luck, leading only 13 drivers to a passing grade this week. But, past winners here, such as four of our model’s top five, will argue that you make your own luck.
2025 Quaker State 400 Picks & Predictions
Austin Cindric (+900)
At the top of our model is Austin Cindric, with our only “A” grade of the week. It’s the perfect fit, in my opinion; Cindric is the best drafting track racer in the series right now. The No. 2 has been in contention to win each drafting track race in 2025. He led the most laps at the Daytona 500 and was crashed running up front here at Atlanta in the spring before winning at Talladega.
Cindric has led laps in each of the last 11 drafting track races, dating back to mid-2023. Ironically, his Talladega win was his fewest laps led at only seven. Specifically at Atlanta, Cindric has led 32 or more laps in each of the last three races.
Though it’s obvious Team Penske plans to once again control at the Quaker State, as they normally do on drafting tracks, it’s been Cindric putting himself in the best positions to win.
Carson Hocevar (+2500)
Carson Hocevar’s biggest issue (aside from running into a certain driver lately) is not being able to put full races together. From a motor issue at Charlotte to a flat tire at Michigan, the No. 77 team can’t get good finishes, let alone wins, when they have speed. A decent day at Pocono led to a P18 finish, the team’s best dating back to Talladega outside of a Nashville runner-up performance.
Hocevar’s P6 there and P2 this spring in Atlanta show that he can run up front at drafting tracks. The Michigan native is P15 in our model, drawn back from mechanical issues in the Daytona 500. His aggressiveness combined with the speed they hope he will have is already a great combination.
That doesn’t factor in the desperation angle. Hocevar absolutely wants to be in the playoffs and knows time is running out. Spire Motorsports doesn’t yet have the luxury of being able to run up front every week at every track. That means we could see this team and driver go all-out to claim a checkered flag at the Quaker State 400.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+4500)
Even in an era where drivers need to be more well-rounded on skills across track types, specialization can still come in handy. In particular, the fact that Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has been a consistent threat on superspeedways and drafting tracks can still come in handy. Each of Stenhouse’s four Cup Series wins have been at this track type, including last fall’s Talladega race.
The No. 47 driver finished P5 in Atlanta this spring and has finished no worse than P17 since 2023, earning top-ten finishes in three of the last four races here. The consistency places Stenhouse just inside of our model’s top ton.
The Mississippi native has stayed out of trouble in each drafting track race this year, earning a P12 at Talladega and P18 at Daytona. Hang around ’til the end at these tracks and Stenhouse might just have a shot at victory.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Quaker State 400 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez – USA Today Sports*
