The NASCAR Cup Series has already been to some of the sport’s most iconic tracks in 2025. “The Lady in Black,” the World Center of Racing and a visit to the site of November’s championship races have come and gone.
Enter “The Last Great Colosseum.”
Bristol Motor Speedway, a short, high-banked concrete oval hosting races since 1961, is up next. The short-track beating and banging has historically been some of the series’ best racing. Whether you’re going for the win or just trying to rattle cages, three words sum up the Tennessee track best.
“It’s Bristol, baby.”
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Can Chris Buescher Conquer the Concrete? | 2025 Food City 500 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Bristol is a beast all its own, with its half-mile high-speed style not having a direct comparison. Of course, you can draw some similarities from other ultra-short tracks like Martinsville, North Wilkesboro or Bowman Gray. But none are similar enough for us to put pen to paper on.
Dover is perhaps the most similar to Bristol; though the Delaware track is longer than Bristol, it’s also a similarly-shaped concrete oval. Therefore, we’ve included it in this week’s model stats, powered by ifantasyrace.com.
We’ve also come far enough into the season that recent form on conventional ovals will be included as well; as I’ve noted many a time, predicting success is not just “what have you done in the past?,” but also “what have you done for me lately?”
- Bristol Next-Gen Average Finish
- Bristol Next-Gen Total Speed Rankings
- 2024 Bristol I and II Average Position
- 2024 Bristol I and II Driver Rating
- Dover Next-Gen Total Speed Rankings
- 2024 Dover Finish
- 2025 Conventional Tracks Total Speed Ranking
- Xfinity & Truck Series @ Bristol Bonus
Denny Hamlin’s 97% is the highest value our model has spit out in its first season. Hamlin, who won both the spring Bristol and Dover races last year, was certainly helped from the inclusion of “The Monster Mile.” In total. Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) and Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) each have a trio of drivers in the top 10. Each Next-Gen Bristol winner sits in the top eight, and the next one certainly could be as well.
2025 Food City 500 Picks & Predictions
Denny Hamlin (+400)
I know it’s probably getting old seeing Denny Hamlin show up as one of my picks. But for the last few weeks, it’s worked like a charm. The No. 11 followed up a dominant Martinsville win by stealing one in Darlington last week. And even at perhaps the lowest outright I’ve ever picked before, I’m tripling down on the 44-year-old.
Hamlin’s IBT Gade is the highest ever in our model, and for good reason. Hamlin won this race last year, and the same tire returns in 2025. He’s finished no worse than P9 in the Next-Gen era, beating your favorite driver in 2023 and finishing P4 last fall.
Those impressive stats rank Hamlin P3 in the ifantasyrace.com’s total speed rankings, an important metric that I don’t shout out often enough in my picks.
Ryan Blaney (+650)
The unluckiest driver in NASCAR right now is Ryan Blaney. Once again, the No. 12 was well on their way to a race win with the dominant car before a late caution tore him away from victory lane once again.
The metrics and the speed are there nearly every week for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Champion to win sooner rather than later. And at Bristol, like in 2025, the finishes don’t always line up with the speed.
Blaney sits a respectable P6 in our model and was P8 in last year’s Bristol total speed rankings. However, a P6 last fall is Blaney’s only T10 finish in the Next Gen.
In total, the Ohio native has led 507 laps here and has two T5 and six T10 finishes in his career. Blaney will win in 2025 very soon, and I’m in no mood to miss out when it happens.
Chris Buescher (+2500)
Honestly, you could fill in any of the three Roush Fenway Keswelowski (RFK) Racing drivers here, and I’d still be just as interested. Still, Chris Buescher makes the most sense to me at +2500 on DraftKings.
Buescher is P8 in our model, and I honestly think it’s other tracks that drag him down because Bristol has been good to him. The 2022 winner here has three top-seven finishes in the Next-Gen era, including that victory, and ranks P5 in the total speed rankings.
The No. 17 has five T10s in 2025 and may already have a strong short track finish on his résumé as well if not for multiple Martinsville incidents.
RFK Racing and Bristol have gotten along like peanut butter and jelly since Brad Keselowski came on board, and seeing any of the Nos. 6, 17 or 60 in victory lane Sunday evening would be no surprise.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Food City 500 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez – USA TODAY Sports*
