We’re down to one last fight for your right to race for the NASCAR Cup Series Shampionship. Martinsville Speedway is the final race in the Round of 8, and four drivers below the cutline are hungry to earn their spot in the Championship 4.
This short-track Sunday afternoon sets up as a battle for the ages.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Chase Elliott Fights for His Right | 2025 Xfinity 500 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Martinsville’s unique 0.5-mile paperclip-shaped oval is unique amongst Cup Series tracks. New Hampshire is a larger track with a similar shape, while the exhibition races at Bowman Gray and North Wilkesboro feature similar tight corners. The IBT Betting Model powered by ifantasyrace.com takes all three into account.
- Martinsville Next-Gen Average Finish
- Martinsville Next-Gen Total Speed Rankings
- Average Running Position at:
- 2025 Martinsville I
- 2025 New Hampshire
- 2025 All-Star Race @ North Wilkesboro
- 2025 Clash @ Bowman Gray
- 2024 Martinsville I and II
- Xfinity & Truck Series @ Martinsville Bonus
Every driver in the Round of 8 ranks in the top nine of our projections, with the top two and three of the top five needing to win to advance. The playoff drivers are eight of the top nine in laps run in the top five here in the Next-Gen era.
While there’s a slight chance of spoiler being played, I’d be shocked if we didn’t see a win-and-in from a driver who’s still alive.
2025 Xfinity 500 Picks & Predictions
Ryan Blaney (+400)
We’ve seen this story before with Ryan Blaney. The No. 12 has won this race to advance to the championship race each of the last two seasons.
Blaney is great in the other Martinsville races too, finishing top-seven in every Next-Gen race here before this spring’s P11. Overall, his average finish is best in the series here and he’s tied for third in the total speed rankings.
Denny Hamlin (+500)
Though Denny Hamlin is already advanced to Phoenix’s championship race, no one would love to play spoiler more than he would. The 60-time race winner has a better chance at a title if neither Team Penske car advances.
The No. 11 won the spring race here and has finished top five in five of the last six Martinsville races. Hamlin’s total speed ranking is second-best in the series, ranking at the top in three of those races.
Chase Elliott (+650)
“America’s Next Top (of the) Model” is Chase Elliott, another driver with experience in winning here to advance. The No. 9 team won this race in 2020 on their way to the championship.
Overall, Elliott has finished top four in the last three Martinsville races and T10 in six of seven. The Georgia native was the fastest in total speed rankings in both 2024 races and is tied for third overall here in that metric.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Xfinity 500 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Scott Kinser – USA TODAY Sports*
