A back-to-back superspeedway start to the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season has provided its fair share of wild storylines and finishes. Things are only about to get wilder in the Lone Star State. Austin, Texas, is home to Circuit of the Americas (COTA), home to the first road course race of the 2025 season.
Of the 10 different winners here across the top three series, nine will race in Sunday’s EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix. NASCAR has raced at COTA each year since 2021, with each race weekend seeming more entertaining than the last.
But, just as drivers were getting the hang of the course, 2025 will feature a short-course layout. It will be intriguing to see if the stars of the past here will be able to keep up this time around.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Connor Zilisch Taking Books by Storm | 2025 EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix Picks
Building Our Betting Model
This year’s race at COTA will run on a slightly modified version of what’s known as the “National Course” rather than the full course run previously. NASCAR basically decided to slice off the longer back portion of the course and turn left at turn 6 and head back around toward turn 12.
COTA is a traditional road course, so Sonoma and Watkins Glen are its primary comparisons. Obviously, data from the Chicago street course and the Charlotte ROVAL are worth looking at as well.
However, COTA is certainly its own beast and a number of drivers seem to run better here than at any other road course. Our model for the week is based on these statistics:
- COTA Next Gen Average Finish
- COTA Next-Gen Total Speed Rankings
- COTA Next-Gen Average Starting Position
- 2024 COTA Average Running Position
- 2024 COTA Driver Rating
- 2024 Comp Road Courses Average Finish
- 2024 Road Course Total Speed Rankings
A negligible bonus was applied to drivers who’ve also had success in the Xfinity and Truck Series here. Following that same thought process, I’ll add a bonus myself and show our top 11 drivers in this week’s model.
I assume everyone would be looking out for betting favorite Shane van Gisbergen (SCG), who ranked just outside of our model’s top 10. The new course layout is similar but not exact to one that SVG ran when the Australian V8 Supercars raced here in 2013.
As for the top of the board, the three Next-Gen winners at COTA are all in the top four. Chase Elliot (seventh) won here in 2021, and both Christopher Bell (third) and Alex Bowman (sixth) have runner-up finishes in the Next-Gen era.
The favorites are here, but the model doesn’t always take everything into account, including when it comes to fresh faces.
2025 EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
Connor Zilisch (+750)
Alright, let me stop you right there. Connor Zilisch is not going to win in his Cup Series debut.
Or is he?
He definitely won’t, but I completely understand why the books and the masses have flocked to the debutant. For starters, his odds at some books started at 100-1, in the same ballpark as SVG was prior to the 2023 Chicago race. Both the SVG effect and the Zilisch effect lowered that number to far below what it should be now.
The 18-year-old has impressed in every step of his career in stock cars, especially on road courses. Last year at COTA, Zilisch won the pole and finished P4 in the Truck Series race. In his Xfinity Series debut last year, he won the pole and the race at Watkins Glen.
But this is the Cup Series. There’s no way Zilisch can win this. Unless he can, and based on what we’ve seen so far, never say never.
Tyler Reddick (+800)
A much more logical option for a winner come Sunday is Tyler Reddick. He’s at a very strong position on top of the projections, and for good reason.
The No. 45 won here in 2023 and finished P5 in both other Next-Gen races at COTA, good for second-best in the series. He’s never finished outside the top 10 here either, winning the pole and finishing P9 in COTA’s 2021 debut.
Reddick has also become a very strong road course racer during his Cup Series career elsewhere. His first two Cup wins came in 2022 at Road America and the Indianapolis Road Course. The California native has a trio of career T10s at Watkins Glen and the ROVAL, never finishing worse than P12 at the latter track. Last year’s best road course finish was a P2 at Chicago.
Alex Bowman (+1400)
The best average finisher in Next-Gen Cup races at COTA has yet to claim a checkered flag there. Alex Bowman has finished P2, P3 and P4 here in the last three races, coming closest to winning in 2022 when Ross Chastain claimed his maiden series victory.
The strong COTA stats ranked the No. 48 P6 on our projections, though fifth through seventh each feature the same score of 81%. Bowman did finally win a road course race last season at Chicago and has traditionally been underrated but also hit-or-miss on this track type.
COTA as well as the ROVAL (five consecutive T10s before last year’s DQ) have been good to the Arizona native. Still, Bowman has just two combined T10 finishes at Sonoma and Watkins Glen.
Some drivers just have their tracks; for Bowman (and both Reddick and Zilisch as well), the Texas course is one of those.
Thanks for reading my 2025 EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas– USA TODAY Sports*
