The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Round of 8 features a beast not seen this late in the playoffs before. Talladega Superspeedway hosts a race in the penultimate round for the first time, with its wild variance and chaotic racing directly affecting the championship round.
Only Denny Hamlin is safe after winning at Las Vegas. For the seven other remaining drivers, it’ll be all they can do to avoid “The Big One” and keep their title hopes on track.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Could This Be Cole Custer’s Chance? | 2025 YellaWood 500 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Talladega is one of three superspeedways on the NASCAR schedule. Daytona is the direct comparison at nearly the same size (2.5 miles), while Atlanta’s EchoPark Speedway features superspeedway-style racing at a smaller venue.
Though that trio can naturally produce plenty of “asterisk mark” finishes, the other ifantasyrace.com metrics still put together a viable IBT Betting Model.
- Talladega Next-Gen Average Finish
- Talladega Next-Gen Total Speed Rankings
- Average Running Position at:
- 2025 Talladega I
- 2025 Daytona I and II
- 2025 Atlanta I and II
- Big Superspeedway Average Finishes since 2024
- Atlanta Average Finish Since 2024
The variance of superspeedway races keeps this week’s high water mark at just 80% with Chase Elliott, as Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) sweeps the top four spots. Other superspeedway aces such as Bubba Wallace and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. appear in our top 10 as well.
2025 YellaWood 500 Picks & Predictions
Ryan Blaney (+1000)
Even with superspeedway chaos ready to strike at any moment, it’s still more than reasonable to go with the favorite to win. That’s especially true when Ryan Blaney is in all but must-win territory following a crash at Las Vegas.
Blaney is a modern-day superspeedway savant, to put it bluntly. The No. 12 won the most recent superspeedway race at Daytona in an unbelievable late-race run, the most recent of five wins on this track type. The 2023 Cup Series champion has a trio of Talladega wins and a combined 11 T5 and 17 T10 finishes between Daytona and Talladega.
Since Atlanta’s reconfiguration, Blaney earned six consecutive T9 finishes there before crashing this summer. And while he’s led 655 career laps on superspeedways, the No. 12 only needs to lead one in particular to earn a shot at a championship.
Ryan Preece (+3000)
The next pair of picks are much more unconventional, but it’s something we see often on superspeedways. Ryan Preece has had a strong season overall, with a pair of impressive (although disappointing as well) moments on superspeedways this year.
The No. 60 was runner-up here in the spring at the checkered flag, but was disqualified in post-race inspection. In Daytona’s summer race, Preece was near the front late in the race before being left behind in the draft by the HMS cars behind him.
The Connecticut native doesn’t have the strongest numbers on paper at superspeedways, with two T5 and six T10 finishes combined at Daytona and Talladega. Still, confidence is an important factor, and this team has it right now. Last week at Las Vegas, Preece rebounded from mid-race issues to finish P9, saying his car was the best he’s ever driven.
Cole Custer (+6500)
Cole Custer would be one heck of an upset winner at Talladega, but he has nearly pulled that off already at our other large superspeedway.
Custer was leading on the backstretch in both Daytona races in 2025, but neither resulted in victory. Big blocking moves to the low line crashed the No. 41 in the Daytona 500 and cleared the path for Blaney to win in the summer race.
That P4 finish in August is the Haas Factory Team’s best finish of 2025. Custer’s other superspeedway highlights include a P9 in the summer 2022 Atlanta race and a P10 here in the spring of 2021.
Thanks for reading my 2025 YellaWood 500 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: David Tucker/News-Journal – USA TODAY Sports*
