Perhaps no track encapsulates NASCAR Cup Series racing, nor does any have better nicknames than Darlington Raceway.
“The Track Too Tough to Tame” is unlike any other in the sport, shaped differently at each end to avoid disturbing a minnow pond during construction.
The best way around the track is right near the wall. Get too close, and it will reach out and bite you, marking your race car with a “Darlington stripe,” all but a rite of passage.
Let’s just say taming “The Lady in Black” isn’t for everyone.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Erik Jones Looks To Tame “The Lady in Black” | 2025 Goodyear 400 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
The Darlington, S.C. oval is a 1.366-mile high tire wear beast that is embedded in the history of NASCAR. As noted, the shape of Darlington isn’t comparable to any other track.
Its racing style, however, is comparable to Homestead. Having just raced there two weeks ago, recency bias can be quite helpful this weekend. We’ve included it in this week’s model stats, powered by ifantasyrace.com.
- Darlington Next-Gen Average Finish
- Darlington Next-Gen Total Speed Ranking
- 2024 Darlington I and II Average Position
- 2024 Darlington I and II Driver Rating
- 2025 Homestead Finish and Average Running Position
- 2024 Homestead Finish
- Xfinity & Truck Series @ Darlington Bonus
We’ve got another tie atop the table! Last week’s winner, Denny Hamlin, is even with the car he owns, Tyler Reddick’s No. 45. Each of 23XI, Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) and Roush Fenway Keselowski (RFK) Racing have multiple appearances in our top 10 as well. However, Hamlin’s Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) is the only team with a trio on top, including the 2024 Southern 500 champ Chase Briscoe.
2025 Goodyear 400 Picks & Predictions
Denny Hamlin (+700)
Denny Hamlin finally broke his winless streak last week at Martinsville and stays on my card to keep the winning ways going. Darlington is one of Hamlin’s favorite tracks, and he’s shown it over the years. He’s won four times, led exactly 1,000 laps and has a 52% T5 and 72% T10 rate at “The Track Too Tough to Tame”.
Hamlin also has six Xfinity wins here and had a seventh taken away via a DQ in 2019.
The No. 11 team has had four T6 finishes in 2025, including a P5 at Homestead two weeks ago. His finishes at our closest comp track have also been solid, earning T7 finishes in four of the last six Homestead races, including a 2020 win.
Chase Briscoe (+1500)
The man who saved his and his team’s season last time we were at Darlington is well set to do it again this spring. Chase Briscoe won the Southern 500 in the fall and was P5 in the spring in 2024, showing that despite Stewart-Haas Racing’s (SHR) demise, Briscoe has learned how to get around “The Track Too Tough to Tame”.
The No. 19 ran P4 at Homestead two weeks ago and P9 last week at Martinsville, showing some well-needed consistency.
What put Briscoe on the map in his nine-win 2020 season was outdueling Kyle Busch in the Xfinity Series’ return from the COVID-19 Pandemic break here for a victory. After doing the same last fall, Briscoe could make a splash with his new team just as he did sending off his old one.
Erik Jones (+5000)
Some drivers just have specific tracks that tickle their fancy, unlike any other. Erik Jones certainly has had that relationship with Darlington Speedway over the years.
Jones has won twice at “The Lady in Black,” including a big-time upset victory in 2022. Legacy Motor Club isn’t where they want to be yet, but they’ve gotten better than in years past. That will be helpful for Jones, as he won in 2019 and never finished worse than P8 here while racing for JGR.
Jones had a T10 here in the fall of 2023 but was P19 and P24 last season. All involved with the No. 43 team know that this weekend can be much stronger.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Goodyear 400 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Jamie Harms – USA TODAY Sports*
