Welcome to Week 4 of my weekly article series for In-Between Media (IBT), giving you my takes on the fantasy football “winners and losers” after each week of action. This will be a fun topic to cover, and I will include my reasoning behind the judgments, along with actionable analysis when possible.
Now, let’s break down what was another exciting Week 4 of the NFL season.
Fantasy Football Winners & Losers: Week 4
Winners
David Montgomery (RB, Detroit Lions)
The fantasy managers who threw caution to the wind and put David Montgomery right back in their lineup once deemed active were treated to an early lead on “Thursday Night Football.” After missing Week 3 with a thigh injury, Montgomery provided the majority of the offense in the Lions’ 34-20 win over the Packers.
Montgomery received 80% of the RB rush attempts, rushing 32 times for 121 yards. He has never been the most efficient running back, with his career Yards Per Carry (YPC) hovering around four. So, his 3.8 YPC was par for the course. But he also found the end zone three times on Thursday night after receiving all of the Lions’ goal-line rush attempts and scoring from one, two and three yards out. Montgomery added two catches on two targets for 20 receiving yards, finishing with a 73.9% RB Opportunity Share and 34.1 Points Per Reception (PPR) fantasy points. Montgomery will have another good RB matchup in Week 5 versus the Panthers and has stamped his name as a must-start RB.
C.J. Stroud (QB, Houston Texans)
One of the best surprises and biggest fantasy football winners of the 2023 season is the Houston Texans offense. And that is largely due to the play of rookie QB C.J. Stroud over the last three games. After scoring less than 10 fantasy points in Week 1 versus the Ravens, Stroud has put up 21.3, 20.6 and 21.8 points. He had two TD passes in each of those games, over 300 passing yards in two of them and no interceptions. He has also injected fantasy relevance into WRs Nico Collins and Tank Dell and now TE Dalton Schultz in Week 4.
Stroud was seen by many as the most NFL-ready QB of the 2023 rookie class, and so far, that looks to be accurate. While not his most proficient day, completing 16 of 30 passes for a 53.3% completion rate, Stroud cashed in against a beatable Steelers’ pass defense, averaging 10.2 passing Yards Per Attempt (YPA). The Steelers entered Week 4 with the second-highest QB pressure rate, measured as the number of QB hurries, knockdowns and/or sacks per dropback. They also led the NFL with 13 sacks. Now, sacks (or the lack thereof) are not solely a QB statistic. Yet, they are not solely an offensive line issue either. Regardless of the reason, rookie QBs tend to take more sacks. The Steelers had zero sacks in Week 4 and Stroud hasn’t been sacked since Week 2.
I can already hear the naysayers attributing Stroud’s early success to a soft QB schedule. It has been. But I’m not as quick as some to translate that into a knock on good performance. The Texans also have one of the best remaining QB schedules in the league, including two games against the Titans in the fantasy playoffs. Stroud has ascended to the cusp of being an every-week start moving forward.
Jake Ferguson (TE, Dallas Cowboys)
The Cowboys had another one of those games in Week 4. They blew out the Patriots and scored 38 points, and yet no one had a huge fantasy day. They’ve had a few games like that already, where multiple defensive TDs soaked up a lot of the opportunity for the skill position players. Jake Ferguson is not a winner because of a week-winning fantasy day but rather due to his increasing usage in the passing game as the Cowboys’ clear TE1.
For the second straight week, Ferguson earned seven targets, catching all seven for 77 yards. With “Monday Night Football” still to go, Ferguson’s 14.7 PPR points have him as the TE5. He is averaging 2.3 receiving yards per team pass attempt, which is fifth among TEs, and he’s currently 11th in Week 4 with a 19.4% target share, sandwiched between Sam LaPorta (18.5%) and Dalton Kincaid (20%). He ran the second-most routes for the Cowboys and led the team with a target on 26% of his routes run.
Ferguson has been ramping up in these peripheral metrics each week. Here is his progression over the last three games in routes run, targets, Targets Per Route Run (TPRR), target share, receiving yards and receiving yards per target:
Adam Thielen (WR, Carolina Panthers)
Adam Thielen has been hot the last two weeks with two different QBs. He easily could have been (and should have been) a fantasy football winner in Week 3, with a busy day against the Seahawks’ banged-up secondary. Thielen erupted in Week 3 for 146 yards and a TD on 14 targets, finishing as the WR3. The combination of game script and Andy Dalton at QB in Week 3 led to a high passing volume for the Panthers, with Dalton throwing 58 passes. Thielen was second to DJ Chark in routes run and led the team in targets, target share and TPRR.
Week 4 was a different story from a passing volume standpoint. Thielen ran 21 fewer routes in Week 4 in a much lower-scoring game with Bryce Young back under center for the Panthers. Young threw 26 fewer passes (32) but Thielen put up another solid target share (25.8%) and TPRR (22.2%). He finished with 14.7 PPR points, putting him at WR21 with “Monday Night Football” still to go. Thielen has staying power as a low-end WR2 moving forward, which significantly exceeds his draft-day price.
Losers
Derek Carr (QB, New Orleans Saints)
Derek Carr was a common target of mine as a QB2 in superflex leagues. I liked the change in setting for him in New Orleans, and I love Chris Olave. All week and as game time approached, it seemed probable that Carr would miss the divisional game versus the Buccaneers. Carr suffered a shoulder injury in Week 3, which brought in Saints backup QB Jameis Winston. This was part of my reasoning for recommending the Buccaneers as a good streaming option for Defense/Special Teams (DST). Carr ended up playing, and even when considering that he wasn’t 100%, it did not go well.
The Saints offense looked lost against Tampa Bay. Olave, who entered Week 4 averaging 10.7 targets, 7.3 receptions and 100.7 receiving yards per game, caught one pass for four yards. The only fantasy bright spot for the Saints was the return of Alvin Kamara, who scored 21.4 PPR points. But it took 13 receptions for only 33 receiving yards at 2.5 Yards Per Reception (YPR) for him to get there. Carr completed 23 of 37 passes for only 127 yards. His 3.4 passing YPA was the second-lowest of the NFL season, with only Joe Burrow putting up a lower rate in Week 1 (2.6).
Hopefully, Carr can heal up enough for the Saints’ Week 5 road matchup with the Patriots. While the Saints’ offense struggled in Week 4, Kamara’s return should help the entire offense run more efficiently, as the combination of Jamaal Williams, now on Injured Reserve (IR), Tony Jones Jr. and rookie Kendre Miller has not incentivized defenses to key in on the Saints running game at all.
Tyler Allgeier (RB, Atlanta Falcons)
Tyler Allgeier was included on my list of players that were disappointing and considered a potential cause for concern moving forward last week. And as evidenced by the fact that he’s now in the “losers” section of the fantasy football winners and losers, Week 4 did not help that outlook. Allgeier is potentially becoming a multi-faceted lesson for fantasy football managers. There are three aspects of fantasy football prognosticating that Allgeier currently represents:
- The relative fragility (from a usage and volume standpoint) of day-three RBs (RBs drafted in Rounds four-seven of the NFL Draft, which takes place on the third day of the draft). With the most recent example being James Robinson, a successful rookie season for a day-three RB does not guarantee anything moving forward. Allgeier was impressive in 2022, to the point where a common take entering 2023, even with the Falcons using a top-10 pick on Bijan Robinson, was that Allgeier would be more involved than the Robinson selection implied. And judging only by Week 1, some Robinson managers were likely sweating that take coming to fruition.
- Overreacting to Week 1, wherein Allgeier had 15 carries to Robinson’s 10, rushing for 75 yards and two TDs. Allgeier out-touched Robinson 18 to 16 and outscored him with 24.4 PPR points (RB4) to Robinson’s 20.3 (RB7). The inevitable Week 1 overreactions rained down, and I’ll admit, I thought I may have missed out by completely ignoring Allgeier in my redrafts. But there were already a few explanations for this hiding in plain sight. Yes, it is easy to look back with hindsight and have this discussion. No, I was not screaming from the hilltops to sell high on Allgeier after Week 1. This isn’t about being right or wrong, but we have to use hindsight to try and learn for the next time. The Falcons controlled their Week 1 game with the Panthers from start to finish. They ran only 44 offensive plays, 26 of which were rushes (59.1%). The game script allowed both Falcons RBs to see over 15 touches, and it did not make sense to move away from Allgeier because of the third aspect.
- Rookies, even as talented or “generational” as Robinson, can take at least a few games to get their NFL feet under them. There was no need to overburden Robinson in his debut game because the game script went in a direction I assume Arthur Smith fantasizes about. Allgeier still has some value; it’s just that his stand-alone value alongside a healthy Robinson is not as high as some thought it would be, especially after his top-five Week 1 result. But the trend is clearly moving in Robinson’s favor:
Not What It Seems: Fantasy Football Panic Meter
The following players were fantasy disappointments in Week 4, but my concern is low moving forward (for now):
- Tank Dell (WR, Houston Texans)
- Jaylen Waddle (WR, Miami Dolphins)
- T.J. Hockenson (TE, Minnesota Vikings)
- James Conner (RB, Arizona Cardinals)
- Chris Olave (WR, New Orleans Saints)
- Tony Pollard (RB, Dallas Cowboys)
- Jordan Addison (WR, Minnesota Vikings)
The following players were disappointments in Week 4, and I am concerned about them moving forward:
- George Kittle (TE, San Francisco 49ers)
- Raheem Mostert (RB, Miami Dolphins)
- Kyle Pitts (TE, Atlanta Falcons)
- Desmond Ridder (QB, Atlanta Falcons)
- Quentin Johnston (WR, Los Angeles Chargers)
- Skyy Moore (WR, Kansas City Chiefs)
- Elijah Moore (WR, Cleveland Browns)
The following players ended up with decent fantasy days in Week 4, but I am not optimistic from a season-long lens. And, depending on their rostership, I am not running to the waiver wire to acquire them:
- Terrace Marshall Jr. (WR, Carolina Panthers)
- Zach Wilson (QB, New York Jets)
- Braxton Berrios (WR, Miami Dolphins)
- Allen Lazard (WR, New York Jets)
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (WR, Tennessee Titans)
- Andrew Ogletree (TE, Indianapolis Colts)
Thanks for reading my Week 4 fantasy football winners and losers. As always, find me on Twitter, talking fantasy football, joking around, posting GIFs and lending my support where it’s needed @MunderDifflinFF.
*Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff – USA TODAY Sports*