Welcome to Week 9 of my weekly article series for In-Between Media (IBT), giving you my takes on the fantasy football “winners and losers” after each week of action. This will be a fun topic to cover, and I will include my reasoning behind the judgments, along with actionable analysis when possible.
Now, let’s break down Week 9 of the NFL season.
Fantasy Football Winners & Losers: Week 9
Fantasy Football Winners
Keaton Mitchell (RB, Baltimore Ravens)
Keaton Mitchell is a name that is little known outside of deeper leagues and dynasty formats. An Undrafted Free Agent (UDFA) rookie out of East Carolina University, Mitchell did impress at the NFL Combine by running a 4.37 40-yard dash. But at five feet, eight inches and 190 pounds, Mitchell seemed like a long shot to get much noise in 2023. That’s especially true in a backfield that, at the start of the season, included J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. But, after Dobbins’ season-ending injury in Week 1 and the Ravens cycling through veteran depth pieces like Kenyan Drake and Melvin Gordon, a path to some playing time alongside Edwards and Hill narrowly opened. Mitchell played 27 special teams snaps and had one catch for nine yards in Weeks 6 and 7, only to be inactive again in Week 8.
Then, Week 9 happened. Mitchell is a fantasy football winner in Week 9 because, seemingly out of nowhere, he exploded for 138 rushing yards on nine carries, including an explosive 40-yard TD against the Seahawks. As a Seattle fan, I watched this game closely, and Mitchell passed the eye test. He and Edwards were the fantasy heroes on the day, with Edwards scoring two TDs of his own, but each only played 14 of the Ravens’ 76 offensive snaps (per PFF). It was Justice Hill who dominated the RB snaps, carries and routes run. It will likely remain crowded in this backfield, but Mitchell will be a hot waiver wire target after doing his best De’Von Achane impression in Week 9.
Jake Ferguson (TE, Dallas Cowboys)
It’s not often you can find a TE1 on waivers in fantasy football. But those who picked up Jake Ferguson a few weeks ago when he was still widely available did just that. Ferguson is a Week 9 winner because he followed up his Points Per Reception (PPR) TE11 performance in Week 8 with a top performance in Week 9 (with “Monday Night Football” still to play).
Ferguson was heavily involved in Week 9. He was on the field for 89.3% of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps and ran the second-most routes on the team (47). He was primarily a pass catcher with a route participation of 88.7%. This usage resulted in elite production, as Ferguson caught seven of 10 targets for 91 yards and a score, securing the longest Cowboy reception of the day (40 yards). After two tough TE matchups in Weeks 10 and 11, Ferguson has favorable TE matchups from Week 12 through the fantasy playoffs.
Joshua Dobbs (QB, Minnesota Vikings)
In-season stories don’t get much better than Joshua Dobbs in Week 9. After being traded to the Cardinals moments before the season started, Dobbs exceeded everyone’s expectations as a fantasy QB. From Week 2 to Week 8, Dobbs was the QB11 on a points-per-game basis, including three games north of 20 points. While he never exceeded 265 passing yards or two passing TDs in that span, he consistently provided points on the ground, rushing for at least 40 yards in five games and scoring three rushing TDs.
If that wasn’t enough, the Vikings then traded a late-round pick to the Cardinals for Dobbs after losing Kirk Cousins for the season in Week 8. Dobbs was not expected to play for Minnesota in Week 9, having only been on the team for a few days. But rookie QB Jaren Hall left the game early with a concussion, so Dobbs was the only option. Dobbs is a Week 9 fantasy football winner because he came into the game barely knowing the playbook and rallied the Vikings to victory over the Falcons.
We needed every last guy today.#Skol pic.twitter.com/nPMlyiwzPg
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) November 5, 2023
This is their fourth win in a row and put the Vikings above 0.500 after starting the season 0-3 and being ravaged by injuries. Dobbs rushed for a TD and threw for two more, including the game-winner to Brandon Powell with 22 seconds left.
Diontae Johnson (WR, Pittsburgh Steelers)
Diontae Johnson is a fantasy football winner in Week 9 after he emphatically stamped his name as the WR1 for the Steelers. Since returning from injury in Week 7, Johnson has led the Steelers in routes, targets and receiving yards, including a 35% target share in Week 8 and a 31% target share in the Steelers’ Week 9 win versus the Titans. In that game, Johnson caught seven of nine targets for 91 yards.
But he did something else that isn’t crazy in and of itself but had become a running topic for almost two years. Every so often in the NFL, a talented WR goes through a TD dry spell. It happened to Jakobi Meyers a few years ago to begin his career with the Patriots, and Johnson has been the recent torch-bearer. That ended in Week 9 as Johnson caught what ended up being the game-winning TD, his first TD reception in 668 days.
Fantasy Football Losers
Geno Smith (QB, Seattle Seahawks)
Things couldn’t have gone much worse for Geno Smith and the Seahawks in their Week 9 game against the Ravens. The Ravens have arguably the best defense in the NFL and have been a brutal matchup for fantasy QBs all season. Smith is a Week 9 fantasy football loser because his 2.7 fantasy points only outscored Cardinals’ rookie Clayton Tune.
Smith completed 13 of 28 passes (46% rate) for 157 yards and no TDs. He turned the ball over twice and had multiple other balls batted down, especially on crucial third downs. You likely didn’t start him in one-QB leagues, but in two-QB formats, even though expectations were tempered based on the matchup, he was a big detriment to your chances of winning your matchup.
Zay Flowers (WR, Baltimore Ravens)
Zay Flowers was an early-season winner as the first rookie WR out of the gates with a big game in Week 1. After a target share above 40% in Week 1 and averaging eight targets per game over the first five weeks, Flowers has averaged only 5.5 targets in the last four. He did catch his first TD in Week 7, but he’s been trending in the wrong direction recently.
Flowers is a Week 9 fantasy football loser because after only 19 receiving yards against the Cardinals in Week 8, he was targeted just once against the Seahawks. That is with the Cardinals and Seahawks both being positive matchups for WRs in adjusted fantasy points allowed per game. Flowers’ route participation decreased from 93.8% in Week 8 to 81.6% in Week 9 (per PFF). That is still a healthy rate, especially for a rookie, and the Ravens leaned heavily on the run in their blowout win. Still, only one target earned is concerning.
Roschon Johnson (RB, Chicago Bears)
Roschon Johnson has been a popular rookie RB name being thrown around all season. Every week is “maybe this is the week he takes over the Bears’ backfield.” When Khalil Herbert was placed on Injured Reserve (IR) earlier this season, Johnson’s bell ringing got louder, and I was standing there ringing it. I assumed (along with many others) that Johnson would be given the reigns to Chicago’s backfield over D’Onta Foreman in Herbert’s absence. Foreman had seven touches and a 28% snap share in Week 1 and was then inactive for the next four games. Meanwhile, Johnson’s snap share approached 50% in Weeks 2 and 3, with Herbert still leading the backfield. Johnson did miss multiple games with a concussion, but he has done little since returning in Week 8.
Johnson is a fantasy football Week 9 loser because, to an even greater degree than in Week 8, he was a distant second to Foreman in the Bears’ RB pecking order. Foreman saw 20 carries against the Saints. Johnson rushed for six yards on just two carries. Herbert is eligible to return in Week 10. There is still a chance that Johnson finds fantasy relevance in the second half of the season. Yet, with Herbert’s impending return and Foreman’s relative effectiveness as the primary back, the excitement for Johnson in 2023 is dwindling.
Not What It Seems: Fantasy Football Panic Meter
The following players were fantasy disappointments in Week 9, but my concern is low moving forward:
- Adam Thielen (WR, Carolina Panthers)
- Jaylen Waddle (WR, Miami Dolphins)
- Marquise Brown (WR, Arizona Cardinals)
- James Cook (RB, Buffalo Bills)
The following players were disappointments in Week 9, and I am concerned about moving forward:
- Devin Singletary (RB, Houston Texans)
- D.K. Metcalf (WR, Seattle Seahawks)
- Zack Moss (RB, Indianapolis Colts)
- Christian Watson (WR, Green Bay Packers)
- Gabriel Davis (WR, Buffalo Bills)
- Brandin Cooks (WR, Dallas Cowboys)
Thanks for reading my Week 9 fantasy football winners and losers. As always, find me on Twitter, talking fantasy football, joking around, posting GIFs and lending my support where it’s needed @MunderDifflinFF.
*Photo Credit: Denny Simmons – USA TODAY Sports*