With just four races to go in the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season, it’s time for eight drivers to start playing their cards right and set themselves up for a championship. There’s no better place to be with that mindset than Sin City.
Home to the first race in the Round of 8, Las Vegas Motor Speedway is the perfect venue to go all-in. With more chaotic tracks to come, controlling your own destiny is paramount. Setting yourself up well after this weekend will make your life a lot easier.
What happens in Vegas can send you to Phoenix and a chance at a championship.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
It’s What Joey Logano Does Best | 2025 South Point 400 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Las Vegas is a 1.5-mile intermediate track comparable to many on the current schedule. Kansas, where they raced two weeks ago, may be the most like Vegas. Charlotte and Texas race similarly and at a similar size, while Homestead and Michigan are close enough comparables as well. It makes for a jam-packed IBT Betting Model powered by ifantasyrace.com.
- Las Vegas Next-Gen Average Finish
- Las Vegas Next-Gen Total Speed Rankings
- Average Running Position at:
- 2025 Las Vegas I
- 2025 Kansas I and II
- 2025 Michigan
- 2025 Charlotte
- 2025 Texas
- 2025 Homestead
- 2025 Conventional Tracks Total Speed Rankings
- Xfinity & Truck Series @ Las Vegas Bonus
They say the cream of the crop rises to the top and sure enough, six of the Round of 8 drivers are in the model’s top ten, with the other two (Chase Briscoe and Ryan Blaney) sitting P11 and P12. We know someone can play spoiler in the playoffs, but I’m sticking with those still alive in this week’s picks.
2025 South Point 400 Picks & Predictions
Kyle Larson (+450)
It’s surprising to see that it’s been 20 races since Kyle Larson has been to victory lane. As the playoffs roll on, it’s clear to me that his winless streak should end sooner rather than later. Larson finished in the top seven each of the last three races for the first time since a four-race stretch that included two of his three wins in 2025.
Las Vegas matches up perfectly with the California native. The No. 5 sits at the top of the Total Speed Ranking charts for the 2025 Las Vegas I race, all Next-Gen Las Vegas races and all 2025 high-speed 1.5-mile races. That puts Larson firmly at the top of our model.
Surprisingly, I haven’t even mentioned that the 2021 champion has two Next-Gen wins and two runner-up finishes here as well. Kyle Larson has led laps in the last five races here and six of the last seven. It all adds up to a very winnable weekend for the No. 5 driver.
Denny Hamlin (+650)
Fresh off the track in Kansas, one of our main comps this week, it provides a simple and relevant opportunity on which to look back and draw data. The most obvious point to take away is that Denny Hamlin, the dominant car but not the victor two weeks ago, won’t want to let another one slip away.
The No. 11 led 159 laps in that race, even without full use of his power steering late on. His top Total Speed Ranking there, plus a P2 and P4 in that stat on the last three comp tracks, only gives more confidence to this pick.
The Virginia native ranks second in the model and has led laps at every comp track this season and in all but one Next-Gen Las Vegas race.
Joey Logano (+900)
It’s typically only in even-numbered years when Joey Logano’s light shines the brightest. In the current playoff format, Logano has reached the Championship 4 in each even-numbered year, but never qualified for it in an odd-numbered year. However, the three-time champion is breaking that narrative in 2025.
Once again, the No. 22 team survived and advanced after a scrappy race at the Charlotte ROVAL. They’ll hope to use the same blueprint that worked in 2022 and 2024: win the Las Vegas race and get set up for Phoenix.
Joey Logano won at Texas, one of our comp tracks, and was T10 both in Las Vegas’ Next-Gen Total Speed Rankings and in our model this week. The Connecticut native has had a strong playoff history, earning T5 finishes in half the races. He’s never started outside of the top ten in the Next-Gen era here either.
Thanks for reading my 2025 South Point 400 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Taj Falconer – USA TODAY Sports*
