As the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Dover, “The Monster Mile” will be a sight for sore eyes for much of the field.
The summer stretch has featured a few non-traditional tracks in a row as of late. Michigan, more than a month ago, was the most recent normal oval the Cup Series has raced on.
Both Pocono’s “Tricky Triangle” and Atlanta’s superspeedway-style chaos have matched the oddity of the trio of road courses snaking within the schedule as well. Everyone short of Shane van Gisbergen 9SVG) will be glad to see a general return to normalcy heading into the playoffs. Granted, Watkins Glen will give SVG a damn good chance at win No. 4 of 2025, and anyone can win late next month at Daytona.
Still, starting this week at Dover, it’s time for the field to put up or shut up.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kyle Busch Mastering The Monster | 2025 AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
While it is a return to an oval, Dover is one of the more unique ovals on the circuit. The one-mile oval is concrete rather than asphalt, differentiating it from most other tracks. There are a few somewhat similar comparisons, however.
Darlington is another short-ish, skilled intermediate track. Bristol and Nashville are other concrete tracks, but that’s about where the similarities end. We weigh those metrics and the following Dover-specific ones in this week’s IBT Betting Model powered by ifantasyrace.com:
- Dover Next-Gen Average Finish
- Dover Next-Gen Total Speed Rankings
- 2024 Dover Average Position
- 2023 Dover Average Position
- 2022 Dover Average Position
- 2025 Nashville Average Position
- 2025 Darlington I Average Position
- 2025 Bristol I Average Position
- 2025 Intermediate Total Speed Rankings To Date
- 2025 Comp Average Finish
- Xfinity + Truck Series @ Dover Bonus
Denny Hamlin is the king of Delaware in the Next-Gen era, sporting a sky-high 95% IBT grade.
And though Kyle Larson has garnered equal attention to the No. 11 from the books, our projects say that’s an overprice, leaving him outside our top 10. Meanwhile, his teammates William Byron and Chase Elliot sit within the top four and should not be faded by any means.
2025 AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Picks & Predictions
Denny Hamlin (+500)
Hamlin is undoubtedly one of the favorites this week, and the odds certainly show it. The defending race winner at “The Monster Mile,” Hamlin has earned a pair of wins and led 818 laps at Dover.
The No. 11 has a 9.0 average finish here in the Next-Gen era, good for fifth in the series. The Virginia native has led laps in each Next-Gen race here and has four career Dover poles. Lately, Hamlin has been boom-or-bust, with four T4 finishes and two at 20th or worse in his last six races.
Alex Bowman (+2200)
While Hamlin is solidly locked into the playoffs, Alex Bowman is right on the bubble, looking for his first win of 2025. Dover is his best chance at getting one before the postseason.
The No. 48 is just ahead of Hamlin in Next-Gen average finish here, ranking P4 at 6.5. Bowman has finished in the top eight in seven of his last eight races here, including a 2021 victory.
Though I mentioned boom-or-bust for Hamlin, maybe no team can relate to that more than the No. 48. Before last week, the Arizona native had the best average finish in the Cup Series in races when he finished on the lead lap. The only trouble is that Bowman has six finishes of 29th or worse in the last 13 races.
Kyle Busch (+2200)
It still hasn’t fully sunk in yet that Kyle Busch has now become a fringe playoff driver rather than the dominant force he once was. “The Monster Mile” is a great opportunity for the “KFB” of old to arrive, however.
Busch has started out front in both of his Next-Gen starts in the No. 8 at Dover and has led at least 25 laps in all three Next-Gen races here. His 10.7 average finish is weighed down by a P21 in 2023, with last year’s P4 being more on brand for Busch. The Nevada native has a trio of Dover wins, 14 T5s and 22 T10s in 36 career starts here.
Thanks for reading my 2025 AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
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*Photo Credit: Jim Dedmon – USA TODAY Sports*
