“The Last Great Colosseum” sets the stage for the NASCAR Cup Series’ final battle of the Round of 16. Four drivers will see their championship hopes end at Bristol Motor Speedway Saturday night. The remaining 12 will advance to the next round and continue their title challenges.
While some drivers have built momentum and others have lost it, the beauty of the victory is that it advances you no matter what. Let the fray begin.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kyle Larson Looks to Dominate | 2025 Bass Pro Shops Night Race Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Bristol Motor Speedway doesn’t just have a unique nickname; its concrete oval at just over a half-mile is unlike any other on the circuit. Dover, another concrete oval, is its closest comparison, even at about twice its size, as the tracks have a similar shape.
We focus on those two tracks in this week’s IBT Betting Model powered by ifantasyrace.com.
- Bristol Next-Gen Average Finish
- Bristol Next-Gen Total Speed Ranking
- 2025 Bristol I Average Running Position
- 2025 Dover Average Running Position
- Dover Average Finishes since 2024
- 2025 Conventional Tracks Total Speed Rankings
- Xfinity & Truck Series @ Bristol Bonus
It should be a surprise to no one that Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson are at the top of the projections. What is more surprising is that both drivers have near-perfect IBT Grades, with Hamlin just one percent off perfection.
A few others, including the remainder of Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR), hang around at respectable percentages as well. Occasionally, I’ll go outside the box for my picks, but I don’t dare venture outside of the top 10 list this week.
2025 Bass Pro Shops Night Race Picks & Predictions
Kyle Larson (+265)
It’s impossible to ignore what we’ve seen in the two most recent Bristol races. Larson stunk up the show, leading 873 of 1,000 laps and winning both without much of a challenge. While the No. 5 is at the top of the odds board, Larson just missed the top of the model this week, but a 97% IBT Grade is definitely a top-tier ranking.
Larson’s dominance of Bristol hasn’t just been that pair of races. He led 276 of 300 laps in this spring’s Xfinity Series race and has never finished worse than P5 in the Next-Gen era here. The California native’s total speed ranking hasn’t dipped outside the top five either.
Denny Hamlin (+400)
Though the last two Bristol races have been the Larson show, Hamlin is fully intent on reclaiming his spot in victory lane here. The No. 11 won the two Next-Gen races previous to Larson’s run, moving his career win total to four at “The Last Great Colosseum.”
The Virginia native ran P4 and P2 in the most recent pair of Bristol races and edged out Larson for the projections’ top spot based on winning Dover earlier this summer.
Hamlin’s Next-Gen total speed ranking has never been outside the top six and ranks third best in the series.
Alex Bowman (+2000)
The simple longshot pick for the week is Alex Bowman, one of the playoff drivers who all but need to win to advance in the playoffs. Bowman’s stats are nowhere near as flashy, but are still relatively strong at Bristol.
The No. 48 has won the pole in each of the last two Bristol races and would likely have finished T5 if not for an engine failure. The Arizona native finished T10 here in the pair of races prior to that incident, including a P4 in spring 2024.
Dover, being the closest comparable, helped Bowman to a top 10 placement in the projections, as he finished P3 there in July.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Bass Pro Shops Night Race picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Reese Strickland – USA TODAY Sports*
