Road courses provide a different challenge to the NASCAR Cup Series. Making the lefts and rights with a cornucopia of different corner traits is much different than the general trends of high-banked ovals. However, road specialization can truly come in handy with the current schedule, and we may be seeing the best version of it that the sport has ever seen.
Shane van Gisbergen (SVG) claimed the weekend sweep at the Chicago street course and he was rarely challenged for long before pulling away at the front. His Trackhouse team is searching for the series lead in wins as NASCAR wanders out west to California’s wine country.
Even with Sonoma Raceway as one of the longtime traditional Cup Series road courses, it’s still SVG versus the field.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Michael McDowell Making His Mark | 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Sonoma is one of two road courses, along with Watkins Glen, that have been mainstays on the Cup Series schedule for decades. Just short of two miles long, this course features the largest elevation change in NASCAR. But the change from last week in our IBT Betting Model powered by ifantasyrace.com isn’t quite so steep.
- Sonoma Next-Gen Average Finish
- Sonoma Next-Gen Total Speed Rankings
- Sonoma Next-Gen Average Running Position*
- 2025 Chicago Street Course Average Running Position
- 2025 Mexico City Average Running Position
- 2025 COTA Course Average Running Position
- Road Course Total Speed Rankings since 2024
- Road Course Finishes since 2024
- Xfinity & Truck Series Bonus @ Sonoma
**each of the 2022-24 races weighed individually
I’ll talk about the glaring omission in our model’s top 10 shortly, but let’s focus on the drivers who made the list first. The top five is a who’s who of the series’ strongest road course racers. Five of the top six have Next-Gen road course victories, while the sixth, Chase Elliott, was anointed the road course king before this era.
But the variation is large enough here that it’s worth looking beyond just the model’s top picks this week.
2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Picks & Predictions
Shane van Gisbergen (+130)
I don’t know what more needs to be said about Shane van Gisbergen on road courses after his dominant Chicago weekend. Perhaps the only thing that can hold him back is that he’s never raced at Sonoma in the Cup Series, which meant a large portion of his stats in the model were zeros.
Despite this, SVG still ranks at P15 in the model based on his other stats, which are plenty good as the series’ best road course racer. That includes the bonus from winning the Xfinity race here last year, and he should get a bonus point for how good his burnout after that victory was.
Michael McDowell (+1100)
We’ll never know if Michael McDowell truly could have knocked off SVG last week, as throttle issues eliminated the No. 71 early on. McDowell won Stage 1 and led 31 of the 53 laps he ran in the race.
The Arizona native runs strong out on the west coast, tallying a 4.0 average finish at Sonoma in the Next-Gen era. He’s gotten two T3 finishes and earned stage points in each race as well. In the other 2025 road course races, McDowell finished P5 at Mexico City and P11 at COTA.
Ty Gibbs (+1100)
Ty Gibbs is quite a value at +1100 as well, though of course he’s held back by not having won yet in Cup, not to mention the SVG curve affecting everyone’s odds. The Sonoma stats haven’t been great for Gibbs either, though; the No. 54 was knocked out of last year’s race and finished P18 in 2023.
But it’s impossible to ignore Gibbs on the road courses after how well his summer has gone when making the lefts and rights. The North Carolina native backed up his strong Mexico City run with well-deserved runner-up honors at Chicago.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
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*Photo Credit: Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean – USA TODAY Sports*
