We are in Sin City this week for the Shriners Children’s Open at TPC Summerlin. The defending champion is Tom Kim, who posted a -24 beating Patrick Cantlay by three strokes. Kim is exactly what I am looking for this week – a shorter yet deadly accurate golfer. I want golfers who have proven to be accurate and have a good course history here.
We have enough data to look deeper into the players that have performed well here in the past. Adam Hadwin is a player who stands out to me historically at the Shriners Children’s Open. He is an accurate player with three T10s in four starts at TPC Summerlin. Matthew NeSmith is another player who should be considered this week because of his course history, with two T10s and two T20s in four starts here. And at $7,100, he could be a great value when rounding out your lineups despite his less-than-stellar play as of late.
The Shriners Children’s Open is a tournament where I am more likely to gamble on players who may not have the best stats coming in. Course history does appear to be a solid indicator of possible outcomes as there are many players in this field that consistently find their way into the top 30 here.
PGA DFS: Shriners Children’s Open 2023
Course Breakdown
TPC Summerlin
- Las Vegas, Nevada
- Par-71
- 7,255 yards
- Bentgrass Greens
TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas is a desert course that plays at about 2,700 feet above sea level. The dry conditions and elevation lead to a course that plays much shorter than the 7,255-yard mark you’ll find on the scorecard. The course offers larger-than-average fairways that are typically some of the easiest to hit on Tour. The green complexes are on the larger side and will see higher-than-Tour-average birdie-or-better rates over the week. The desert does come into play for those who are wayward off of the tee.
All and all, this is a birdie-fest, and we will see a higher rate of eagles here. The players must take advantage of the par-5s as they all are two-shot holes, given how much farther the ball will carry here. In contrast, the par-3s are all around 200 yards. Though longer than average, they should still play 10-20 yards shorter because of the air and elevation. The main defense of this course is typically the weather and the climate itself. At the time of this writing, the weather looks to be near perfect, with only moderate winds on Thursday.
Stats to Build Around:
- Good Drives Gained
- Birdie or Better Rate
- Shots Gained Approach
- Proximity Range 100-150
- Shots Gained Par 4’s and Par 5’s
- Opportunities Gained
- Course History at TPC Summerlin
DFS Strategy
Unlike last week, I will likely have a more condensed player pool at TPC Summerlin. I have a very specific skill set that I am looking at. Twenty players seems like the amount I am landing on in most of my modeling. I’m not afraid to fade some of the high-tier golfers that are popular right now and stick to players that have the historical performance stats here.
Kim is an example of someone who came here and won in his first appearance, but as I mentioned above, he fits the archetype I am looking for. A player who stands out to me that I will be underweight is Ludvig Aberg. Aberg is the new hotness right now, and though I absolutely love him, I don’t know that I see this setting up particularly well for him. I won’t be a full fade on him, as he is an amazing talent and may further prove that he can pick apart any course. Still, there are some stats that lead me toward eating the Kim chalk and being overweight on him instead.
The big stat that stands out with Aberg – and it is something to think about – is his shots-gained approach. He is 109th in this field, and thus far, in his PGA career, he has not proven to be on the elite level in that regard. Aberg caught a hot hand last week, gaining 4.4 strokes on approach, but in his prior 10 starts, he had gained a full stroke or more on approach only twice. The Swedish golfer also lost almost eight strokes in that metric at the 3M Open over that stretch. He will be an elite talent – if not THE elite talent – in the not-too-distant future, but at TPC Summerlin, I am proceeding with caution.
Shriners Children’s Open 2023 DFS Plays
(Prices courtesy of DraftKings)
High-Tier Plays ($9,000 & Above)
- Tom Kim ($10,900)
- Cam Davis ($10,300)
- Si Woo Kim ($9,900)
- Eric Cole ($9,800)
- Adam Hadwin ($9,300)
High-Tier Fades ($9,000 & Above)
- Ludvig Aberg ($11,000) – Not a complete fade, but I will be underweight to the field.
- Emiliano Grillo ($9,400)
- Lucas Herbert ($9,000)
Mid-Tier Plays ($7,600-$8,900)
- JJ Spaun ($8,900)
- Aaron Rai ($8,800)
- Vincent Norrman ($8,800)
- Doug Ghim ($7,800)
Mid-Tier Fades ($7,600-$8,900)
- Adam Svensson ($8,200)
- Garrick Higgo ($7,900)
- Davis Thompson ($7,800)
- Alex Noren ($7,700)
Low-Tier Plays ($7,500 & Below)
- Sam Ryder ($7,800)
- Matthew NeSmith ($7,100)
- Chesson Hadley ($7,100)
- Ryan Moore ($6,500)
Low-Tier Fades ($7,500 & Below)
- Akshay Batia ($7,400)
- Peter Kuest ($7,200) – Not a full fade, as I will have some exposure in Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs).
- CT Pan ($7,200)
- Cam Champ ($7,200)
- Joel Dahmen ($6,700)
Good luck this week! Thanks for checking out my PGA DFS picks for the Shriners Children’s Open, and be sure to check us out live every Tuesday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on the 19th Hole Live!
*Photo Credit: Andrew Wevers – USA TODAY Sports*