Welcome back to another “Survivor 49” episode recap.
A Mexican feast is won, players set up their endgame strategies, and advantages are misplayed at tribal! First, I’ll recap the episode and then provide updated betting odds for the remaining castaways. Finally, in the words of the great Tony Vlachos, I will highlight our “top five, baby” – the five players who not only made a significant impact this episode but are also set up for future success.
Let’s check back into Fiji with the Final Six!
(Warning: Spoilers Ahead)
“Survivor 49” Episode 12 Recap + Castaway Betting Odds
Episode Recap
Camp Life
The players return from tribal, and Soph is finally the only Sophie on the island! Rizo cooks up a lie about his immunity idol, saying that Final 6 is the last time he can use it. However, it does not expire until the Final 5. He does this to scare others away from voting for him. Soph claims that she cannot beat Rizo or Savannah at the end of the game, and that she is ready to “blindside the people she’s been closest to the entire game.”
Reward Challenge
It’s Day 22, and the players are struggling – specifically, Savannah. Jeff tells the players what they’re playing for, and it’s a doozy: A Mexican feast with tacos, guac and margaritas, coupled with a night away at the sanctuary. In addition, the players will receive some love in the form of letters from home!
In the reward challenge, players race through a bamboo high step, collect a bag and then move through more obstacles to collect more bags. Once this step is completed, players will try to land a sandbag on top of a pedestal. Rizo struggles early in the challenge with his first bag and falls behind quickly. Steven reaches the pedestal quickly and begins tossing his sandbag. Kristina originally struggles with her sandbag throws, but improves after a few tries. Steven continues to nearly miss landing his, and misses out, as Savannah lands hers and wins reward!
Jeff asks Savannah to pick two players for the reward. Savannah picks Rizo and Soph. Savannah says she needs the fuel from the reward for the next few immunity challenges. On the reward, Savannah, Rizo and Soph discuss voting out Steven, with Soph stealing his advantage using her Knowledge is Power. The letters from home are distributed, and Savannah gets to hear from a multitude of family members and her boyfriend. Rizo talks about his family and how his dad still works three jobs to provide for them. Soph says that this reward has solidified the three of them as an alliance.
Back at camp during the reward, Sage says Savannah’s win is karma to the rest of the group for not taking her out. She also thinks this win will get Savannah taken out soon, as she is a massive threat. Kristina is worried that the reward trip to the sanctuary will change Soph’s mind about flipping on Savannah and Rizo.
Immunity Challenge
We get yet another balance challenge, a staple of the New Era! Players balance a ball with their foot elevated in the air and must hold the ball on a plank until it drops. Jeff notes that this challenge previously ran in Season 45 and was won by future winner Dee.
Rizo, Steven and Soph drop out of the challenge within the first three minutes. Kristina closely follows suit, and it’s down to Sage and Savannah for immunity. Sage and Savannah start to banter back and forth about who needs to win immunity more. Sage asks Savannah to drop, but Savannah mentions that Sage wrote her name down.
Jeff announces that the players have been up there for 35 minutes and are both beginning to struggle. Sage drops her ball and can barely move, meaning Savannah wins immunity! This was Savannah’s third individual immunity win since the merge.
Camp Life (cont.)
The players return to camp, and Savannah has the immunity necklace. She wants everyone in her three protected, as she has immunity, Rizo has an idol and Soph has a Knowledge Is Power advantage. Rizo approaches Steven, assuming he will want Soph out, and Steven concurs.
Rizo then pitches Steven to Sage. She considers it, as she thinks Steven would beat her at the end. Her ideal endgame is Sage Soph Kristina. Kristina wants to vote out Soph here over Steven, as she fears Steven is the only one who can beat Savannah at an immunity challenge. However, she is open to turning on Steven, which he gets wind of in one of their post-challenge conversations.
Steven plays his vote block in advance on Savannah, so Savannah will not vote at tribal.
Tribal Council
The Final Six arrives at tribal, and tension is high. Steven says he wishes he could have been on the reward, but that “rough nights build character.” When asked about the three left behind from the reward, Soph assumes the three of them talked about the game, and admits that the three on the reward did talk game. Soph also says that her name could come up tonight, as Savannah is immune and Rizo’s idol allegedly expires. Rizo reinforces that his idol expires tonight, and that lines will be drawn here for the rest of the game.
Before the players vote, Soph stands and reads off the text of her Knowledge Is Power Advantage. She asks Steven if he has an advantage, and much to her chagrin, he does not! He played his before tribal, and so he no longer has it on him.
Rizo then assumes that one of him or Soph will be receiving votes here. The players cast their votes, and Savannah finds out her vote is blocked. When Jeff calls for advantages, Rizo asks Soph and Savannah if they had their vote. Savannah says that her vote was blocked. Rizo mulls over his decision, but decides not to play his idol on Soph or himself. J
eff reads the votes, and surprisingly, Steven goes home 4-1 with his vote for Soph being the sole vote she receives.
“Survivor 49” Castaway Betting Odds
Each week, I’ll rank and pair the remaining “Survivor 49” castaways with betting odds to win the game. These odds are subject to change after each episode. When castaways are eliminated, edits become clearer. As a result, win equities will diverge, and odds will become more favorable to some and less favorable to others.
Savannah’s win equity increases again, as her biggest competition in the immunity challenges leaves the game. Soph’s odds drop, as she misplays a powerful advantage at a key juncture in the game. I’ve kept Kristina’s the same; I just do not see how she wins this game.
- Savannah (+150)
- Soph (+300)
- Rizo (+350)
- Sage (+1100)
- Kristina (+2500)
The “Top Five, Baby!”
“Top five, baby!” The phrase coined by the great Tony Vlachos in “Survivor Cagayan” rings true here and will throughout the season. The five most impactful castaways this episode and moving forward, in my eyes, are as follows:
Savannah
It was yet another strong round for Savannah. She is the clear frontrunner to win now. In the last two rounds, she has voted out two players who had both challenge and Final Tribal win equity against her. If she makes the Final Tribal Council, she deserves to win this game. Unless she somehow slips up in a challenge, this is her game to win.
Soph
Soph really fumbled this round. She locked in with Rizo and Savannah at The Sanctuary when she needed to flip. She could have stolen Rizo’s idol, but tried stealing Steven’s advantage, which had to be played before tribal. Steven going home is not a bad result for her, but her problem is the Final 5 vote. If Savannah wins immunity again, she is forced to vote out Kristina or Sage, both players she wants at the end of the game with her. I still see a path for her, but it depends on whether Savannah fumbles the bag.
Rizo
How the heck does this man still have an idol? I continue to be impressed by Rizo. That said, I think Savannah has played a stronger game. She is seen in a more strategic light, whereas Rizo is seen as more human. The emphasis on Rizo’s family and their journey is not a traditional winner edit. I still think he falls just short, but I hope he surprises me. Barring a bizarre move, he is guaranteed at minimum a spot in the fire-making challenge at the Final Four.
Sage
Sage strangely votes out Steven here. A better move would have been to go for Rizo or Soph. She must think that Soph, Kristina and her in the Final Three is the only chance to win. Now, however, she is at Final Five with the opposite side having an idol and the biggest challenge threat. I could certainly see her taking fifth place and going home early in the finale. Once Jawan left, her game really sputtered.
Kristina
There’s not much to say. She seems like a lovely person, but I don’t think she has a puncher’s chance to win this game.
Thanks for reading my “Survivor 49″ Episode 12 Recap + Castaway Betting Odds.” For more entertainment content, check out our other blogs here at In-Between Media (IBT). And be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @robbrereton for more “Survivor” content.
