Welcome back to another “Survivor 49” episode recap.
We had a showdown to win immunity, fried chicken for a reward and a big player getting caught plying the middle. First, I’ll recap the episode and then provide updated betting odds for the remaining castaways. Finally, in the words of the great Tony Vlachos, I will highlight our “top five, baby” – the five players who not only made a significant impact this episode but are also set up for future success.
It’s time to head back to Fiji.
(Warning: Spoilers Ahead)
“Survivor 49” Episode 9 Recap + Castaway Betting Odds
Episode Recap
Camp Life
The six players who attended tribal return to camp, and the reward winners see that MC was voted out and react in surprise. Sophie reflects on the past round and tries to figure out who she still trusts. Meanwhile, Kristina thinks that Sophie is a threat, as she is articulate and performed well at the last two immunity challenges. Savannah reconnects with Soph after tribal, and tells her that she was able to bank her vote and now has an extra vote.
Steven engages Sage in conversation and leaks to her that Kristina found the idol that was re-hidden after MC played hers. Sage says she cannot tell Jawan about it, exposing a rift in the group that voted out Shannon together before the merge. Steven says that Sophie has limited game awareness and does not see the tides turning before it’s too late.
Sophie pivots and tries to build a relationship with Soph. Soph says they could be “Sophie Squared” and that there is room for two Sophies on the island. Alex is clearly playing the middle, funneling information from the Steven-Sage-Kristina-Jawan side straight to Soph, who then relays it to Savannah and Rizo. Players are slowly catching on that Alex is well-connected.
Reward Challenge
We’ve had some lackluster rewards on “Survivor 48.” DIY sandwiches just doesn’t do it for me. This week, however, did not disappoint! Jeff tempts the players with fried chicken, French fries, soft drinks, lemonade, and cheesecake for dessert. The teams are as follows for the challenge. Soph, who was not picked, selects the Yellow Team and will win reward if the Yellow Team wins.
In the reward challenge, players work to free a metal cube from ropes, then move the cube to a mat. Once they reach the mat, players will retrieve rings and then toss the rings onto a pole. The first team to three rings wins reward. The Yellow Team starts strong, but Blue quickly catches up. Alex wins the reward for Blue! Once the reward winner is decided, Kristina offers to give up her reward to Jawan, since he hasn’t won one the entire season. Jawan initially declines Kristina’s offer, as he wants to earn the reward. Kristina insists he take it, and Jawan ultimately decides it’s OK and accepts.
On the reward, Savannah and Sophie bond about being at the bottom together. Jawan enjoys his food and reflects upon how he was always the one to provide for his family. He also reflects on his experience here on “Survivor” and how people like him for him, and he doesn’t have to pretend to be anyone else but himself.
Camp Life Part 2
The editors have fun with the transition from the reward back to camp, shifting from a shot of the fried chicken on the reward to the chickens back at camp. Steven has chicken guilt! He’s had enough chicken lately and does not need to kill another one. The ethics of killing and eating the chickens at camp is a recurring theme on “Survivor,” and it’s nice to revisit that this season. Kristina and Sage want Savannah to go home, as they think she has “mean girl energy.” Kristina’s plan is to split the vote between Rizo and Savannah, flushing the idol.
Despite the numbers disadvantage, Soph notices the power shift. She says, “Rizo has an idol, Savannah has an extra vote and I have a Knowledge is Power. Between the three of us, we have the most power in the game.”
Next, Soph leaks the split-vote plan to Rizo and Savannah. Rizo wants Alex out and tells Sage that Alex has been playing the middle. Rizo then tells Jawan that Alex said he was surprised Jawan and Sage didn’t vote Rizo out. Jawan ponders it, but ultimately thinks there are bigger fish to fry than Alex.
Immunity Challenge
Two immunity necklaces are up for grabs this week! The last man and last woman standing will win immunity. Players must hold their bodies upright while also holding a large disc with their feet. If the disc drops, you’re out! The challenge commences with a monologue from Steven about space, akin to Christian Hubicki’s monologue in an individual immunity challenge in “Survivor: David vs. Goliath.”
Like Christian, Steven successfully distracts the opposition and wins the men’s immunity necklace! Just like the last immunity challenge, Savannah and Sophie battle for the women’s immunity necklace. Savannah engages in some psychological warfare with Sophie, exuding confidence. Sophie eventually drops out, and Savannah wins her second consecutive individual immunity.
Tribal Council
The players return to camp, and the scramble to figure out the vote ensues. Kristina wants Rizo out, and Rizo wants Alex out. Somehow, Sophie is in a better position now after almost going home last round and is getting information from both sides.
Jawan tells Alex that Rizo is throwing his name out, and Alex says that Rizo has to go. Jawan and Sage are seen as the deciders of this vote. At tribal, the players talk about how much-needed the reward was. Savannah references the “cross-pollination” between the two tribes after the MC vote.
The players talk facial expressions, and Kristina says she has a good poker face. When asked about the objective of this vote, Jawan says the previous votes were for building trust, but this vote is for taking out a threat.
The players vote, and Rizo holds onto his idol yet again. The vote split fails spectacularly, and Alex is voted out 6-2-1. He laughs it off on the way out and admits to playing both sides.
“Survivor 49” Castaway Betting Odds
Each week, I’ll rank and pair the remaining “Survivor 49” castaways with betting odds to win the game. These odds are subject to change after each episode. When castaways are eliminated, edits become clearer. As a result, win equities will diverge, and odds will become more favorable to some and less favorable to others.
I have ranked players with a poorer edit, with much lower odds. Sophie has received more visibility lately and seems to be in a better position. Still, her odds remain low because she was nonexistent earlier in the season.
Rizo’s odds increase yet again, as he holds onto his idol and sends the player who was targeting him home. Savannah jumps Soph in our first change at the top in some time. Savannah has been seen in just as strategic a light as Soph, but has done better at challenges.
- Savannah (+275)
- Soph (+325)
- Rizo (+400)
- Jawan (+675)
- Sage (+900)
- Steven (+1200)
- Sophie (+1400)
- Kristina (+1600)
The “Top Five, Baby!”
“Top five, baby!” The phrase coined by the great Tony Vlachos in “Survivor Cagayan” rings true here and will throughout the season. The five most impactful castaways this episode and moving forward, in my eyes, are as follows:
Savannah
Savannah wins immunity again and still has an extra vote. Sending home Alex ties Soph closer to her, and weakens the original Hina players that were not aligned with her. I think it is clear that Savannah is making it to the finale. If she can win a challenge or influence a vote at the right time, I think she can win this game.
Soph
Soph maintains her odds to win and continues to impress. She receives information from Alex on the split-vote plan and then leaks it to disrupt it. She loses a close ally in Alex, but is not as threatening as Rizo or Savannah, nor as the duo of Sage or Jawan. Like Savannah, I think Soph is locked into a spot in the finale. If she can make Final Tribal Council up against players other than Rizo or Savannah, I like her chances to win.
Rizo
Rizo’s odds continue to decrease, and this may be the last chance to bet him at a value. His desired target, Alex, goes home here, and he retains his hidden immunity idol. In addition, Rizo is not seen as a challenge threat. I still have him below Savannah and Soph because they have received more direct strategic content, but that could change in the future if his current trajectory continues.
Jawan
Jawan creeps up in win equity. He receives a significant amount of personal content here and votes correctly to take out Alex. Jawan and Sage are still in a strong position in this game, albeit slightly more volatile now that Sophie appears to be working with Rizo, Savannah and Soph.
Sage
Welcome to the “Top Five, Baby!” Sage! She and Jawan were seen as potential deciders for this vote. Even though Sage is not always seen in a strategic light, she’s played a stronger game than Steven, Kristina, or Sophie. Thus, she takes the fifth spot.
Thanks for reading my “Survivor 49″ Episode 9 Recap + Castaway Betting Odds.” For more entertainment content, check out our other blogs here at In-Between Media (IBT). And be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @robbrereton for more “Survivor” content.
