It was a Wild Card Weekend full of multiple lead changes, fourth-quarter comebacks and heartbreaks or happiness, depending on which side you root for. We’re back for the NFL Divisional Round!
For those that don’t know, on my socials (Twitter/X, BlueSky and Facebook), I regularly post “Three Stats,” featuring three fantasy football stats for a player, one from each team. Nothing is changing from that point of view, although it is now in article form.
I will also be changing it to be more prop bet-focused than fantasy points-focused. We at In-Between Media (IBT) are excited to partner with PropDecks and run a free NFL Playoffs PropDeck tournament (info below), where you can win a $200 Fanatics gift card, among other prizes!
With that said, let’s get into my prop bet picks for every game, using the BettingPros Consensus lines as of Jan. 15.
Top Three NFL Player Prop Picks for Every Divisional Round Game (2025)
Saturday
Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos
Bo Nix (QB, Denver Broncos)
Since Denver’s bye week, Bo Nix is averaging 24.4/36 for 237.8 passing yards, 1.2 passing touchdowns, 0.4 interceptions, 6.2 carries for 25.4 rushing yards and 0.4 rushing touchdowns.
In their last five non-Week 18 games, the Bills are allowing a quarterback to average 18/29 for 182.6 passing yards, 1.8 passing touchdowns, 1.4 interceptions, 3.4 carries for 25.6 rushing yards and 0.4 rushing touchdowns.
- Passing Yards: UNDER 210.5 – Yes, Nix is averaging 237.8 passing yards in his last five games, but he’s been held to 182 or fewer in back-to-back games and is facing a Bills defense that has not allowed a quarterback to hit this mark since Week 14.
- Rushing Yards: OVER 21.5 – Is it just me, or has Bo Nix’s rushing ability been slept on? Nix is averaging 25.4 rushing yards in his last five games, thanks in part to back-to-back games with 42+ rushing yards. Then, you have the Bills, who have allowed a quarterback to hit this number comfortably with 31+ rushing yards in three of their last four non-Week 18 games.
Courtland Sutton (WR, Denver Broncos)
Courtland’s on to somethin’ (Sutton) here. Courtland Sutton has five or more receptions for 62+ yards and a touchdown in his last three non-divisional games. The Bills have gone back-to-back non-divisional games, allowing a wide receiver to have 5+ receptions for 68+ receiving yards.
- Receiving Yards: OVER 49.5 – If the Bills have allowed a wide receiver to have 68+ receiving yards in their last two non-divisional games, I’m taking it. You pretty much have to hope that he doesn’t have one of his one-reception type of games or look like his previous two games.In eight of the 11 non-divisional games this season for Sutton, he has more than one reception. When he has more than one reception, he’s hit 60+ receiving yards.
Dalton Kincaid (TE, Buffalo Bills)
In Dalton Kincaid’s playoff career, he is averaging 2.8 receptions for 33.8 yards and 0.3 touchdowns. Meanwhile, teams’ TE1s against the Broncos from Weeks 13-17 are averaging 5.6 receptions for 55.8 yards and 0.4 touchdowns.
- Receiving Yards: UNDER 36.5 – The reception number of 3.5 was initially enticing to me. Kincaid has not hit this number in four straight games and doesn’t average it in playoff games. However, the Broncos have allowed a tight end to hit that number in six straight non-Week 18 games. So, I opted for the receiving yards. Kincaid has not hit this number in two of his last three complete games, and hasn’t done so in his last three playoff games. The Broncos have also not allowed a tight end to surpass 40 receiving yards in three straight games, including Week 18. If Kincaid happens to go over, it’ll be over by the tiniest of bits.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Seattle Seahawks)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) averaged 7.5 receptions on 10.5 targets for 104 yards against the 49ers this season. The 49ers have gone back-to-back games allowing a wide receiver to have six-plus receptions, but they’ve been held to 84 yards or fewer.
- Receptions: OVER 6.5 – Short and simple: Smith-Njigba has hit this number in 12 games this season, and he has six-plus receptions in five straight. Yeah, he was one short of seven against the 49ers in Week 18… but I think they’re being too generous with the number here, so I’ll take advantage of it.
Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seattle Seahawks)
Zach Charbonnet is averaging 14.5 carries for 60.5 rushing yards and a touchdown against the 49ers this season. This includes Week 18, where he extended his active streak to three straight games with 32+ rushing yards and a touchdown. In two of the last four games, the 49ers have allowed a running back with 15+ carries to have 46+ rushing yards and a touchdown.
- Rushing Attempts: OVER 11.5 – Charbonnet is averaging 14.5 carries against the 49ers this season, and he has demolished this number in back-to-back games, where he has 17+ carries.
- Rushing Yards: OVER 46.5 – In both games against the 49ers, Charbonnet has 47+ rushing yards. Charbonnet has 74+ rushing yards in back-to-back games. The 49ers have allowed a running back to hit this mark in three straight games.
- Anytime Touchdown – It’ll still piss off the Kenneth Walker III managers, but Charbonnet has scored a touchdown in both games against the 49ers this season and has scored in three straight games. The 49ers have allowed a rushing touchdown to a running back in four of the last five games.
Christian McCaffrey (RB, San Francisco 49ers)
Christian McCaffrey is averaging 15 carries for 46 yards and 7.5 receptions for 53.5 receiving yards for a total of 99.5 scrimmage yards against the Seahawks this season. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are on a current three-game streak of not allowing a running back to have more than 70+ rushing yards or 35+ receiving yards. They’ve also only allowed one touchdown to the position in the last 7 games.
- Receptions: OVER 5.5 – McCaffrey has six-plus receptions in both games against the Seahawks this season. He’s also hit this number in three of the last four games. George Kittle is out with a torn Achilles, and McCaffrey hit this number in every game from Weeks 2-7 with no Kittle. While he didn’t hit this number with no Kittle against the Bears in Week 17, he came awfully close in Week 17 with four receptions on six targets.I’d consider that as an outlier. This is a high number for a running back, but McCaffrey is the only running back to have at least six receptions against the Seahawks this season. Adding on, the Seahawks have allowed a running back to have five or more receptions in two of their last four games.
Sunday
Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, New England Patriots)
Rhamondre Stevenson keeps on extending the streak, having now gone six straight games with 40+ rushing yards and 22+ receiving yards. He’s averaged 62 rushing yards and 41 receiving yards in that span. Now, Stevenson looks to extend that streak to seven games and is facing a team in the Texans that has allowed a running back to have 20+ rushing yards and 20+ receiving yards in four straight non-Week 18 games.
- Rushing Yards: OVER 38.5 – Name another player who has a hotter hand than Stevenson right now. There aren’t many. That’s what I am going with here as Stevenson has not been held to under 40 rushing yards in six straight games, and he’s hit 50+ in four of the last five. The Texans have allowed a running back to have 40+ rushing yards in three of their last four games.
- Receiving Yards: OVER 20.5 – Not only has he hit this in six straight games, but he also averages almost double this number in that span! The Texans have allowed a 20+ receiving yard running back in four straight non-Week 18 games, as previously mentioned.
- Rushing + Receiving Yards: OVER 62.5 – If I love the over on rushing and I love the over on receiving, I’ve got to love the combined total! Stevenson is averaging 106 scrimmage yards during this hot streak. Technically, the Texans haven’t allowed a running back to hit this number in three straight games. However, Houston has allowed a running back to have 20+ rushing yards and 20+ receiving yards in four straight non-Week 18 games. Those running backs average 58.2 rushing yards and 38.7 receiving yards for an average of 96.9 scrimmage yards.
Hunter Henry (TE, New England Patriots)
Since the Patriots’ bye week, Hunter Henry is averaging 3.6 receptions for 44.4 yards and 0.6 touchdowns. That span includes three straight games of three or more receptions and 49+ receiving yards. He’s also scored a touchdown in three of his last four games. Meanwhile, the Texans have allowed a TE1 to average 3.5 receptions for 27.2 yards and 0.5 touchdowns in their last four games.
- Receptions: OVER 3.5 – I’m cutting it very close here, but Henry has had at least three receptions in four straight games. He also has five or more in two of his last four games.
The Texans have allowed a right end to have three receptions in three of their last four games. A tight end has had at least five receptions in two of their last four games, too. Given how stingy the Texans’ defense has been, I’m more comfortable with this number than his receiving yard props.
C.J. Stroud (QB, Houston Texans)
In the last eight games, quarterbacks against the Patriots are averaging 17.5/27.7 for 155.6 passing yards, 0.8 passing touchdowns and 0.3 interceptions. Since returning from the concussion, and not including Week 18, C.J. Stroud is averaging 19.8/31.6 for 236.6 passing yards, 1.3 passing touchdowns and 0.6 interceptions per game.
- Passing Completions: UNDER 20.5 – Stroud has hit over this number in four of his last six games, but he’s averaging under this number in that six-game span. Meanwhile, the Patriots have not allowed a quarterback to have 20+ completions since Week 10. It’s sounding more and more likely that he will be without Nico Collins, who is in concussion protocol. In the seven complete games without Collins, Stroud is averaging 19.7 completions.
- Passing Touchdowns: UNDER 1.5 – Stroud is averaging 1.3 passing touchdowns since returning, and has only two multiple passing touchdown games in that six-game span. In the games without Collins, Stroud is averaging 1.1 passing touchdowns. He happens to go against a defense that has allowed only one quarterback in their past eight games to throw for multiple touchdowns. Yeah, I’ll gladly take the under.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears
Luther Burden III (WR, Chicago Bears)
Since returning from injury, Luther Burden III is averaging 4.6 receptions on 6.6 targets for 71.6 yards and 0.3 touchdowns. In the past two games, the Rams have allowed three different wide receivers to be targeted six or more times; all of them had at least five receptions and 81 yards.
- Receptions: OVER 2.5 – We might as well call him Luther Burden “III Receptions”. The last time Burden III didn’t have at least three receptions in a game was in Week 8. All wide receivers with six or more targets against the Rams this season have at least three receptions.
- Receiving Yards: OVER 38.5 – From Weeks 10‑13 and the Wild Card game, where Burden III played with Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore, he averaged 39.8 receiving yards. That’s close, but in three home games in that span, he had at least 42 yards. Considering the Rams have allowed three different wide receivers to go for 81+ yards in the last two games, I like Burden hitting the over.
Caleb Williams (QB, Chicago Bears)
Caleb Williams has gone five straight games with 17+ completions, 28+ pass attempts, 212+ passing yards and two passing touchdowns. The former Heisman Trophy winner is averaging 21/37 for 279 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and 0.6 interceptions in that five-game span.
The Rams have allowed a quarterback to have 17+ completions, 28+ attempts, 212+ passing yards and multiple passing touchdowns in seven games this season and four in the last six. Quarterbacks against the Rams are averaging 21.3/35 for 252 passing yards, 1.8 passing touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions in those last six games.
- Passing Completions: OVER 19.5 – There are a lot of over props I like for Williams this week. He averages 21 completions in his last five games and has 20+ in three straight. Not only have quarterbacks against the Rams averaged 21.3 completions, but they’ve had 21+ in back-to-back games.
- Passing Yards: OVER 223.5 – Williams has averaged 279 yards in his last five games, and has hit this in four of those games, having 242+ passing yards. The Rams have allowed a quarterback to average 252 passing yards in the last six games, and they’ve allowed a quarterback to have 243+ passing yards in back-to-back games.
- Passing Touchdowns: OVER 1.5 – It doesn’t matter when it happens, but it’ll probably be in the second half. The Bears’ second-year quarterback has done this in six straight games! I don’t see it stopping against the Rams, who have allowed this in four of their last six games.
Kyren Williams (RB, Los Angeles Rams)
Since the Rams’ bye, Kyren Williams is averaging 15 carries for 76 rushing yards and 0.7 rushing touchdowns. He is also averaging 1.6 receptions for 12 yards. When the Bears have faced a running back with 12-15 carries this season (generally how much Williams sees in a game), they average 61.1 rushing yards. However, in three of the last four instances, the running back has been held to 56 rushing yards and no touchdowns.
- Rushing Yards: UNDER 61.5 – I’ve never doubted how much impact Williams can have in this offense. Still, the Bears have held running backs with 12–15 carries under this mark in three of the last four games. Williams has also failed to hit it in back‑to‑back games.
- Receptions: OVER 1.5 – This is a line I didn’t expect to bet, but Williams has hit this number in four straight games and in five of his last six. He’s also averaging right around this number since the bye. The Bears ended a five-game streak last week of allowing a running back to have multiple receptions. I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits the over for receiving yards, too, but I’m more comfortable in the receptions market.
Thanks for reading this week’s “Three Player Prop Picks for Every NFL Divisional Round Game (2025).” If you’re looking for more fantasy content like this or need help with the last-minute fantasy football start/sit decisions for your roster, you can find me on Facebook at “Fantasy Sports Start or Sit’Em Questions,” Twitter/X @FSSOSEQ or on BlueSky!
*Photo Credit: Brett Davis – USA TODAY Sports*
