The pomp and circumstance of the Daytona 500 is in the rearview mirror. Now, the NASCAR Cup Series can begin to get into the real swing of things.
Still, Daytona’s racing was quite similar to what we will see this weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Since being reconfigured prior to 2022, Atlanta races closely to the other superspeedway tracks, featuring excitement, huge packs, drafting and close finishes.
Last year’s races here were no exception. The spring race saw Daniel Suarez win in a three-wide “Cars”- esque finish, while 2024 champion Joey Logano kick-started his title run with a win in the playoff opener here.
This weekend, we are likely to see more of the same, both on the track and in our betting model.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
William Byron Hopes to Start Back-to-Back | 2025 Ambetter Health 400 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Atlanta Motor Speedway now races like a superspeedway following its reconfiguration. The 1.540-mile track had its banking increased to 28 degrees in the turns, and its racing surface narrowed and repaved. As a result, its closest comparisons are Daytona and Talladega.
Daytona also features a narrower racing surface, so things may look and feel similar to last week. Talladega features a wider racing surface, but comparisons can still be made from that track as well.
Our betting model takes into account metrics from all three tracks, including last week’s Daytona 500 results. The full list of statistics considered and top 10 drivers in our projections are as follows:
- Atlanta Next-Gen Average Finish
- Atlanta Next-Gen Total Speed Rankings
- 2024 Atlanta 1 & 2 Average Position
- 2024 Atlanta 1 & 2 Driver Rating
- 2025 Daytona 500 Average Position
- 2025 Daytona 500 Total Speed Rankings
- 2024 Daytona & Talladega Average Finish
Clearly, Team Penske’s superspeedway dominance is clear here, with each of their drivers in the top six. Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) has a large presence as well. Surprisingly, Kyle Larson is the Chevrolet team’s only driver not to appear in the top seven.
Thankfully, the model doesn’t tell us everything, especially with the unpredictability of superspeedways. That doesn’t mean it should be ignored, though.
2025 Ambetter Health 400 Picks & Predictions
William Byron (+1300)
There’s no easier place to start than with the Daytona 500 champion. William Byron, P3 in our model, was once again both lucky and good enough to claim “The Great American Race” for a second consecutive year.
Not only has the No. 24 been sneaky strong on superspeedways, but the team is on an absolute heater of a run dating back to last year.
Byron is the first driver since Martin Truex Jr. in 2020 to earn T6 finishes in eight consecutive races. That run has included five T3 finishes, including his Daytona victory.
The new Atlanta layout has been good to Byron as well. He’s won twice since the reconfiguration and led laps in four of the six races there.
Denny Hamlin (+1500)
No one has been more critical of the current superspeedway racing format than Denny Hamlin. However, the 21-year Cup Series veteran showed he still has the talent to win those races, running up front late at the end of the Daytona 500.
The No. 11 is all the way down at P23 in our model, largely due to poor Atlanta runs last season. The three-time Daytona 500 winner all but threw away last fall’s race here, running poorly all day and finishing P24 after crashing anyway.
Hamlin should now realize that’s not the way to go about it and should be seen more at the front than the back for this one. Though he has five wins combined at Daytona and Talladega, he has just one T10 at the new Atlanta, leading laps in four of six races.
Daniel Suarez (+1700)
Perhaps no one has enjoyed the new Atlanta layout more than Daniel Suarez. The No. 99 was the only Trackhouse Racing car to be in contention at the finish at Daytona and is the defending winner of this race.
Though the circumstances of the win were fortunate, Suarez running up front here is to be expected. The Mexico native has finished T6 in all but one of the six Atlanta races since the reconfiguration. Suarez has finished P2 in both the fall races the last two seasons here as well.
I’m surprised he’s not ranked higher than eighth in our model, but Daytona and Talladega haven’t been as sweet to Suarez as the Peach State.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Ambetter Health 400 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez – USA TODAY Sports*
