Is there a better time to lay out my 2023 fantasy football hot takes than as the summer heat continues to sweep the U.S.? While they’re called hot takes for a reason – it’s tough for them to come to fruition – my three favorite hot takes are backed by advanced analytics and historical trends.
Let’s jump into the fire!
2023 Fantasy Football Hot Takes
Nick Chubb (RB, Cleveland Browns)
Hot Take: Finishes as a Top-Three RB in Points per Game in Points Per Reception (PPR) Formats
Nick Chubb has all the RB talent in the world (and always has), but in PPR formats, he’s yet to crack the top-five RBs in points per game. He came close, finishing as the RB6 in 2020 and 2022. I say that changes in 2023, and Chubb finishes as a top-three RB.
The main reasons Chubb hasn’t set up camp atop the RB mountain in PPR are a relative lack of receiving work and a share of the team rush attempts closer to a split backfield than “bell cow” status.
Chubb’s career target share is 6.5%. Since 2011, only five RBs have finished top three in points per game with a target share below 10.0%: Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor in 2021, Henry in 2020, Ezekiel Elliott in 2016 and Adrian Peterson in 2015. Those RBs made up for that with rushing volume. The average rush attempt share by those five RBs was 71.6%, and none of the five finished with less than 65% of their team’s rush attempts in those years. Over the last three seasons, Chubb’s average rush attempt share is 54.6%.
Even while essentially splitting the backfield with Kareem Hunt the last three years, Chubb has still been an RB1 each season. This is due to Chubb’s efficiency, elusiveness and explosiveness. Since 2020, Chubb has finished with the following ranks in Yards Per Carry (YPC) (efficiency), Yards After Contact (YAC) per attempt (elusiveness) and Break-Away Runs (15+ yards) per game (explosiveness):
- Yards Per Carry (YPC)
-
- 2020: Second
- 2021: Third
- 2022: Fifth
- Yards After Contact Per Attempt
- 2020: First
- 2021: First
- 2022: Eighth
- Break-Away Runs Per Game
- 2020: First
- 2021: Third
- 2022: First
The missing piece has always been volume. But Hunt is gone, and Chubb’s only competition is Jerome Ford, a second-year RB drafted in the fifth round in 2021. Plus, the Browns are likely to remain a run-heavy team. Chubb’s rush attempt share should finally exceed 65%. Chubb is a better pass catcher than his usage indicates, and he’s an above-average pass blocker. He’ll stay on the field on third downs more often, and his target share should be closer to 10%. That volume and market share increase will result in a top-three PPR RB finish in 2023 fantasy football leagues.
Dameon Pierce (RB, Houston Texans)
Hot Take: Finishes Outside the Top-30 RBs in PPR Points per Game
Dameon Pierce will finish outside the top-30 RBs in PPR points per game. Pierce’s current Average Draft Position (ADP) is RB22, according to FantasyPros. That is too high. Don’t get me wrong, Pierce is a good NFL RB, and he had much more success in his rookie season than I had projected. Finishing as the RB19 in 2022 points per game, Pierce dominated the Texans’ backfield, averaging 16.9 carries per game in the 13 games he played before his injury. H
e finished with the third-highest RB Rush Share (% of team rush attempts) in the league at 74.3%, behind only Josh Jacobs (RB3) and Derrick Henry (RB4). RB19 is the fourth-lowest finish for an RB with a 70%+ RB Rush Share since 2011. Pierce’s target share of 9.3% wasn’t terrible, but at only 5.5 Yards Per Reception (YPR), he did little in the receiving department.
To reach his RB22 value in 2023, he would likely need to match his rushing volume and market share from his rookie campaign. Therein lies the problem. Pierce had little competition in the Houston backfield last year. That changed with the Texans’ signing of Devin Singletary. A much better pass catcher and pass blocker than Pierce, Singletary will eat into Pierce’s workload. Singletary isn’t just a third-down weapon either, having averaged 11 carries per game over his four seasons in the RB buzzkill that is the Bills’ backfield. Singletary will see the field often & the superior pass blocking cannot be overlooked.
The Texans have significantly more invested in their first-round QB (C.J. Stroud) than they do in Pierce as a fourth-round RB, especially in a current NFL environment where RBs are as expendable as they’ve ever been. The RBs I would take ahead of Pierce, whose ADPs are lower in 2023 fantasy football leagues, include D’Andre Swift, David Montgomery, Rachaad White, Isiah Pacheco, James Conner and depending on where he signs, Dalvin Cook.
Brandon Aiyuk & Deebo Samuel (WRs, San Francisco 49ers)
Hot Take: Brandon Aiyuk Outscores Deebo Samuel in Points per Game
Not only is Brandon Aiyuk a much better value than teammate Deebo Samuel, I say Aiyuk finishes higher in points per game this season. The most egregious disparity in 2023 fantasy football ADP between two WR teammates is easily these two 49ers pass-catchers. According to FantasyPros, Samuel’s ADP is WR18, while Aiyuk sits 11 spots lower at WR29.
The first thing I point to is the arrival of Christian McCaffrey (CMC) in San Francisco via trade in Week 7 last season. Here are some of the splits pre and post-CMC acquisition:
- Targets per game
- Samuel: Pre-CMC: 7.8; With CMC: 6.7
- Aiyuk: Pre-CMC: 5.4; With CMC: 6.9
- Receiving yards per game
- Samuel: Pre-CMC: 57.5; With CMC: 41.0
- Aiyuk: Pre-CMC: 47.4; With CMC: 63.2
- WR PPR Rank
- Samuel: Pre-CMC: WR10; With CMC: WR29
- Aiyuk: Pre-CMC: WR25; With CMC: WR22
With CMC, not only did Samuel’s numbers suffer while Aiyuk’s improved, but Aiyuk’s numbers were better than Samuel’s.
Samuel is a low Average Depth of Target (aDOT) WR who is a Yards After Catch (YAC) maven. He also relies on rushing output as much as any WR in the NFL. CMC cut into both of those offensive strengths. Along with Samuel’s targets per game declining, his rush attempts per game decreased from 3.8 to 2.7. Only 1.1 fewer attempts per game may seem insignificant, but that’s a huge decrease for a WR whose fantasy success has hinged heavily on rushing output. I’m projecting both WRs to be low-end WR2s with a slight edge to Aiyuk in points per game.
Thanks for reading my favorite 2023 fantasy football hot takes. Check out more of our fantasy football content and other written work here at In-Between Media, or head over to our YouTube channel to get your fix via video.
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