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2024 Oscars Betting Odds & Picks

by Dan Kotnik

It’s nearly time to celebrate a banner year of movies with the Oscars awards ceremony on March 10.

2023 was a fantastic year for the movie industry. The yearly domestic box office grossed $8.9 million, according to Box Office Mojo, the highest since the start of the COVID-19 Pandemic. We saw the “Barbenheimer” phenomena sweep the country, possibly altering how studios release their top-tier projects. This year in film had the most pre-pandemic vibe in a while. In summation, it was a lot of fun to be a movie fan in 2023.

To get you primed and ready, let’s break down the Oscars betting odds, along with my picks for each of the major awards.

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

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2024 Oscars Betting Odds & Picks

Best Supporting Actress

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  • Da’Vine Joy Randolph – “The Holdovers” (-2000)
  • Emily Blunt – “Oppenheimer” (+1100)
  • Danielle Brooks – “The Color Purple” (+1100)
  • America Ferrera – “Barbie’ (+1800)
  • Jodie Foster – “Nyad” (+2200)

Da’Vine Joy Randolph’s star has steadily risen over the past several years. She’s already got a Tony nomination under her belt from 2012 for “Ghost: The Musical.” Her breakout role in Eddie Murphy’s “Dolemite Is My Name” put her on the map, but her performance in “The Holdovers” is what the Oscars are made for. This should be a slam dunk.

Dan’s Pick: Da’Vine Joy Randolph – “The Holdovers” (-2000)

Best Actress

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  • Emma Stone – “Poor Things” (-150)
  • Lily Gladstone – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (+120)
  • Sandra Huller – “Anatomy of a Fall” (+1000)
  • Carey Mulligan – “Maestro” (+2000)
  • Annette Bening – “Nyad” (+4000)

Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone are the two favorites here, and for good reason. Both Stone and Gladstone are already coming off Golden Globe wins this award season. Since 1950, 71% of Best Actress Oscars winners have also won a Golden Globe that same year. In the last 20 years, it jumps up to 90%, with an 18-year run from 2003 to 2020.

Is it voter laziness when it comes to the actress category? It very well could be. Shades of the patriarchy aside, the award has to be between these two.

Dan’s Pick: Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (+120)

Best Supporting Actor

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  • Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (-1000)
  • Ryan Gosling – Barbie (+650)
  • Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon (+1400)
  • Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things (+1600)
  • Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction (+2000)

The last time Robert De Niro was nominated for an acting Oscars award was in 2012 for “Silver Linings Playbook.” Since then, he’s kind of been all over the place, mixing in performances like “Joker” and “The Irishman” with more… interesting choices like “Dirty Grandpa” and “The War with Grandpa.” His performance in “Killers of the Flower Moon” feels like a return to classic De Niro and I think he gets rewarded for it.

However, don’t count out the Academy stumbling its way into following the “Barbie” narrative and giving its only real male “lead” the Oscar. Sometimes, they just can’t help themselves.

Dan’s Pick: Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon (+1400)

Best Actor

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  • Cillian Murphy – “Oppenheimer” (-250)
  • Paul Giamatti – “The Holdovers” (+175)
  • Bradley Cooper – “Maestro” (+1000)
  • Jeffrey Wright – “American Fiction” (+2800)
  • Colman Domingo – “Rustin” (+4000)

It’s a two-horse race between Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti. Both actors took home a Golden Globe for Best Actor, and frankly, I think the Academy might be suffering from a bit of “Oppenheimer” fatigue. The two movie titans this year – “Oppenheimer” and “Killers of the Flower Moon” – did huge numbers and were great films. However, they’re both very heavy emotionally. “The Holdovers” is the more feel-good third candidate that I think snakes more awards than people are expecting.

Dan’s Pick: Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers (+175)

Best Director

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  • Christopher Nolan – “Oppenheimer” (-3500)
  • Martin Scorsese – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (+1400)
  • Yorgos Lanthimos – “Poor Things” (+1400)
  • Justine Triet – “Anatomy of a Fall” (+1600)
  • Jonathan Glazer – “The Zone of Interest” (+2500)

In the past 10 years, there have been just three years where the Golden Globe Best Director winner did not win the Best Director Oscars award, and it’s never happened in back-to-back years. In 2023, Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert won the Oscars award for “Everything Everywhere All at Once” after Steven Spielberg took the Golden Globe for “The Fabelmans” a few months earlier.

Christopher Nolan has already nabbed the Globe as Best Director this year. I do think the odds are a bit misleading, though. There could be a movement to give Martin Scorsese a “lifetime achievement” win here of sorts that would make the overall vote closer. Still, history points towards Nolan.

Dan’s Pick: Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (-3500)

Best Picture

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  • “Oppenheimer” (-900)
  • “The Holdovers” (+1200)
  • “Poor Things” (+1200)
  • “Barbie” (+1800)
  • “Killers of the Flower Moon” (+2500)
  • “Anatomy of a Fall” (+2800)
  • “American Fiction” (+4000)
  • “The Zone of Interest” (+5000)
  • “Past Lives” (+6500)
  • “Maestro” (+6500)

As noted, “Oppenheimer” and “Killers of the Flower Moon” were the two pillars of big, dramatic, “must-see-it-on-the-big-screen” films of the year. Like any polarizing apparent dichotomy, however, the two front runners can cannibalize each other enough while alienating a portion of the voting base to allow a potential third candidate to gain steam. “The Holdovers” flew a bit under the radar but has real momentum heading into the Oscars. Don’t be surprised if it’s a big night for them.

Dan’s Pick: “The Holdovers” (+1200)

Thanks for reading my 2024 Oscar Betting Odds & Picks! If you’re interested in more entertainment and sports takes, follow me on Twitter @DKalltheway.

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