Welcome to 2026. The new year has arrived, with College Football turned upside down.
Four massive quarterfinals cracked open the sport’s traditional hierarchy. Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia are gone from playoff contention. Three of the sport’s defining brands were beaten soundly and now watch the season from the outside. For the remaining four teams, the message is simple: this is the window.
Indiana dismantled Alabama 38-3 in a Rose Bowl performance that felt like a program announcing itself to the sport. Oregon outlasted Texas Tech with balance, ball control and four forced turnovers. Miami rode a ferocious defensive front to knock out Ohio State. Ole Miss leaned on the arm of Trinidad Chambliss to survive Georgia in an instant Sugar Bowl classic.
There is also a strange thread tying the semifinalists together; all four head coaches in this stage once coached for Nick Saban at Alabama. Even in retirement, Saban’s influence still shapes the sport’s biggest moments.
For teams eliminated, the transfer portal is already reshaping rosters as the sport enters a new era of Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) deals and revenue sharing. Nearly one-third of all NCAA players are now in the portal. The offseason is coming fast.
First, though, two more games will decide the future. The old powers are gone. The door is wide open. One of these four teams is about to seize college football’s biggest prize.
Four teams, two winners and one National Champion.
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2025 College Football Playoff Semi Finals Preview: Best Bets & Devy Fantasy Football Storylines
Semifinals Games of the Week
The Fiesta Bowl: Miami Hurricanes (10) vs. Ole Miss Rebels (6)
State Farm Stadium; Glendale, Ariz. – Thursday, Jan. 8
Betting Odds: Miami -3.5 | Total: 51.5
This is a classic clash of momentum versus muscle.
Ole Miss enters the semifinals riding the most unlikely surge of any team in the playoff. When Lane Kiffin left for LSU before the postseason, the Rebels were expected to unravel. Instead, they hardened. Defensive coordinator Pete Golding took control and the team rallied around quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who has turned into one of the most dangerous players in the country over the past month.
Chambliss is not just throwing for volume; he is pushing the ball vertically, extending plays and attacking one-on-one matchups outside the numbers. In past matches against Georgia, he consistently beat tight man coverage with anticipation throws and deep fades, showing a level of composure that few quarterbacks have in their first postseason run. When defenses drop into coverage, Kewan Lacy punishes them underneath, forcing safeties to creep forward and opening throwing lanes behind them.
The problem for Ole Miss is what it has not yet seen in the playoff: a defensive front like Miami’s. Miami’s path to the semifinals has been built on trench dominance. Texas A&M and Ohio State both tried to establish rhythm, and neither was allowed to breathe. Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor collapse the pocket so quickly that quarterbacks are forced into off-platform throws and rushed decisions. Even when Miami does not get sacks, it forces mistakes.
That is where this game tilts. The offensive line of Ole Miss has been good, not great. Georgia managed little pressure for three quarters, but when it finally started winning inside, the game tightened. Miami is far more relentless. If Chambliss is forced into third-and-long repeatedly, turnovers become a real risk.
On the other side, Miami’s offense will not try to trade explosives. Carson Beck has been asked to manage games, convert third downs and protect the football. With Mark Fletcher Jr. running behind an All-American line, Miami will attempt to shorten the game and let its defense dictate tempo.
This is not about who scores more. It is about who breaks first.
My Picks
Trinidad Chambliss Under Passing Yards: Miami’s pass rush will compress the pocket and take away deep developing routes.
Under 51.5: Miami will slow the game and Ole Miss will struggle to create clean, explosive plays.
Mark Fletcher Jr. Over Rushing Yards: Miami will lean on its ground game to control tempo and protect Carson Beck.
Miami -3.5: The Hurricanes’ edge in the trenches should eventually wear down Ole Miss and create separation late.
The Peach Bowl: Indiana Hoosiers (1) vs. Oregon Ducks (5)
Mercedes-Benz Stadium; Atlanta, Ga. – Friday, Jan. 9
Betting Odds: Indiana -4.5 | Total: 46.5
Indiana and Oregon already know what this feels like.
When the Hoosiers walked into Autzen Stadium in September and left with a 30-20 win, it was a warning shot to the entire country. That game was not a fluke. Indiana controlled the line of scrimmage, forced Dante Moore into mistakes and held Oregon without an offensive touchdown for more than 50 minutes.
The difference now is that Oregon is playing its best football of the season. The Ducks have shifted into a run-first, defense-driven identity that looks nothing like their old Pac-12 roots. They leaned on that new formula to suffocate Texas Tech in a 23-0 Orange Bowl win. The front seven plays fast, rallies to the ball and makes offenses earn every yard. Edge rusher Teitum Tuioti has become a nightmare, consistently beating tackles with speed and counter moves.
The challenge is stopping Indiana’s balance. Fernando Mendoza does not force throws. He takes what the defense gives and then punishes mistakes. If Oregon plays two-high coverage to protect against Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr., Indiana will run it. If the Ducks bring safeties down, Mendoza will isolate Charlie Becker and attack vertically. That chess match is why Indiana is so difficult to defend.
Indiana’s defense also travels. Alabama found no space in the Rose Bowl and Oregon’s offense struggled when Texas Tech clogged running lanes. If Indiana can again force Dante Moore into second-and-long situations, the Ducks will have to beat them through the air, which is exactly what happened in the first meeting.
This game will not be fast. It will be violent, physical and built on field position. That suits Indiana perfectly.
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My Picks
Indiana -4.5: The Hoosiers have been a machine against elite opponents.
Under 46.5: Both defenses are built to eliminate big plays.
Fernando Mendoza Over 255.5 Passing Yards: Oregon will force Fernando Mendoza to throw and he has answered all season.
National Championship Odds
- Indiana Hoosiers +130
- Oregon Ducks +310
- Miami Hurricanes +340
- Ole Miss Rebels +550
Indiana sits at +130 to win the National Championship because it has been the most complete and dominant team all season. The Hoosiers pair an elite defense with a Heisman-winning quarterback, plus they already own a road win over Oregon. Oddsmakers view the Peach Bowl winner as the likely champion because that game features the two teams that have been most consistent on both sides of the ball. Whoever survives in Atlanta will enter the title game with the strongest statistical profile and the most convincing résumé.
Thanks for reading my article on “2025 College Football Playoff Semifinals Preview: Best Bets & Devy Fantasy Football Storylines”. For more Devy and College Fantasy Football content, follow me on Twitter/X @PoshplaysFF.
*Photo Credit: Petre Thomas – USA TODAY Sports*
