Football weather is here across the Northeast, and with it comes clarity across the College Football landscape.
The Big Ten Championship will likely come down to the #1 Ohio State Buckeyes and #2 Indiana Hooisers, but the #21 Michigan Wolverines, #6 Oregon Ducks, #20 USC Trojans and Iowa Hawkeyes are all nipping at their heels were one program to slip up. The SEC also feels like a two-horse race between the #3 Texas A&M Aggies and #4 Alabama Crimson Tide, although they, too, have teams with one conference loss, like the #7 Ole Miss Rebels, #5 Georgia Bulldogs and #13 Texas Longhorns in the mix. Control of the Big 12 is up for grabs this week when the #8 BYU Cougars take on the #9 Texas Tech Red Raiders. Meanwhile, the ACC is shaping up to be a one-bid conference with the #12 Virginia Cavaliers now sitting in the driver’s seat for a championship birth. The top Group of 5 (G5) team that could clinch its spot in the College Football Playoff (CFP) will likely come down to either the #22 Memphis Tigers, North Texas Mean Green, South Florida Bulls out of the American Conference or the James Madison Dukes from the Sun Belt.
But before then, we have a lot of ball left to be played, including this Week 11 action that is ripe with betting angles and devy fantasy football storylines!
2025 College Football Week 11 Preview: Best Bets & Devy Fantasy Football Storylines
Week 11 Games of the Week & Devy Storylines to Watch
Indiana Hoosiers (2) @ Penn State Nittany Lions
Beaver Stadium, State College, Pa. – Saturday, Nov. 4
The 3-5 Penn State Nittany Lions are 14.5 to 16.5-point underdogs against the #2 Indiana Hoosiers coming in on the heels of a five-game losing streak, all against Big Ten opponents. Still, the Nittany Lions did score 14 points on the nation’s best defense in the first half last Saturday before being shut out in the second half by Ohio State. The backfield also appears to have flipped, with Kaytron Allen out-touching Nick Singleton 23-9 in that game. The Nitanly Lions are just 1-7 against the spread (ATS), and they are unable to get their opponent off the field on third down or limit big plays.
Indiana is an absolute wagon and on the verge of cashing their season win total this week, as they sit 9-0 straight up (SU) and 6-3 ATS. Their QB Fernando Mendoza remains at +220 to win the Heisman, leading the Hoosiers to the top scoring offense and third-ranked scoring offense. They also have the third-ranked scoring defense and seventh-ranked total defense, allowing no team other than Oregon to put up more than 15 points against them.
My Picks
Indiana -14.5
Curt “Cig” Cignetti has been rolling over mediocre Big Ten teams for the better part of two seasons now. It’s tough to say, but that’s what Penn State is these days. With precipitation and 40-50 degree weather expected in Happy Valley on Saturday, the same fans that left Beaver Stadium empty against Northwestern will likely once again take a rain check, lessening the home-field advantage. Indiana rolls here.
Texas A&M Aggies (3) @ Missouri Tigers (19)
Memorial Stadium, Columbia, Mo. – Saturday, Nov. 4
In SEC country, it’s the third-ranked Texas A&M Aggies coming into Columbia as 7.0 to 7.5-point road favorites against the 19th-ranked Missouri Tigers
Before the bye, Mike Elko’s men went into Death Valley and got Brian Kelly fired with a 49-25 win over LSU, moving them to 8-0 SU & 4-4 ATS. The Aggies are tied with Alabama at the top of the SEC standings, and their QB Marcel Reed is looking like a legit Heisman candidate, sitting at +650. He’s got A&M scoring at the 11th-highest clip, and sitting top 35 in both passing and rushing. The defense has still been an issue (60th in scoring), but they are leading the nation in sacks per game and opponent 3rd-down conversion rate.
Missouri is also off the bye, coming in at 5-2 both straight up and against the spread. They now have to live life without Beau Pribula at quarterback, as he’s gone for the season with a torn ACL, leaving freshman Matt Zollers under center. The team still has Doak-Walker Award candidate Ahmad Hardy in the backfield, who leads the SEC in rushing, plus a top-five total defense, but it will be tough sledding.
My Picks
Texas A&M -7.0
This Aggies team is firing on all cylinders and has had two weeks to prepare for a freshman quarterback making his first start. They’ll avoid the look-ahead spot with the 3-6 South Carolina Gamecocks and FCS Samford Bulldogs on deck next, and should make quick work of a good-not-great Missouri team.
Devy Spotlight
Jadarian Price (RB, Notre Dame Fighting Irish; 2026)
Jadarian Price might technically sit at No. 2 on Notre Dame’s depth chart, but calling him a “backup” misses the reality of what he brings to the field. On most college rosters, Price would be the clear feature back; he’s a dynamic, every-down threat with a pro-ready skill set and the kind of athletic upside that stands out in a class struggling to separate itself. He’s the definition of next-man-up who already plays like the guy.
Price runs with a mean streak, attacking defenders through contact and consistently falling forward for extra yards. His combination of patience and burst makes him dangerous in any blocking scheme. He presses the line with deliberate pace, waits for lanes to develop and then explodes through creases with sudden acceleration that erases pursuit angles. Once he hits daylight, his verified 4.4 speed is a legitimate home-run weapon. What sets Price apart is balance and versatility. He’s slippery but strong, averaging elite yards after contact and offering natural receiving ability that allows Notre Dame to flex him into the slot or motion him out wide. His vision and instincts make him a perfect fit for zone-heavy NFL offenses, while his explosiveness translates to immediate special-teams value as a returner.
There are still areas for refinement, particularly in pass protection and consistency with his reads when the picture clouds. Durability questions from his past Achilles injury will linger until he handles a full pro workload. But on tape, Jadarian Price has already erased those doubts, with the tools of a Day Two pick and the upside of a future starter. In a class short on true difference-makers, his blend of power, patience, and game-breaking speed gives him one of the highest ceilings of any back in 2025.
Elijah Sarratt (WR, Indiana Hoosiers; 2026)
At 8-0, Indiana has become the talk of College Football, and while quarterback Fernando Mendoza may be a Heisman Trophy front-runner, his go-to target, Elijah Sarratt, is quietly building a résumé of his own. Draft-eligible in 2026, Sarratt has emerged as the Hoosiers’ alpha receiver and the heartbeat of an offense that’s rewriting the program’s history. He’s not just Mendoza’s safety valve; he’s the tone-setter who makes winning plays when it matters most.
Sarratt’s game is built on reliability and precision. He’s an exceptional hands catcher who attacks the football in the air with confidence, routinely winning tight-window throws on crucial downs. His body control and mid-air adjustments stand out – just watch his twisting touchdown grab against Michigan– and he shows a rare understanding of spacing that allows him to uncover against both man and zone. Despite average long speed, he’s an underrated vertical threat thanks to his timing, tracking and physicality at the catch point. As a route runner, Sarratt wins through craft rather than flash. Subtle shoulder dips, head fakes and precise breaks help him create separation on intermediate patterns. He’s also a willing blocker, bringing a competitive edge that reflects his leadership role on an undefeated squad.
The ceiling isn’t built on blazing speed, and his route tree still has room to expand, but the floor here is remarkably high. Elijah Sarratt projects as a pro-ready X receiver who thrives on timing routes and third-down conversions; he’s a dependable chain-mover with the demeanor of a veteran. In a league that values consistency as much as flash, he’s the kind of receiver who earns trust early and never gives it back. If he adds just a touch more burst, he’ll hear his name on Day 2 of the 2026 NFL Draft, maybe sooner!
Ty Simpson (QB, Alabama Crimson Tide; 2026)
Few quarterbacks in College Football are playing at a higher level than Ty Simpson right now. In his first year as Alabama’s starter, and fourth in the program, he’s flipped the script from promising backup to one of the most efficient and poised signal-callers in the country. What makes his rise fascinating is how it challenges the modern NFL trend. Recent success stories like Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels built their draft stock on years of starting experience; Simpson, meanwhile, might enter the league with only one. That makes his decision to declare early or return to Tuscaloosa one of the most intriguing storylines of the 2025 NFL Draft cycle.
Simpson’s game is defined by speed, in his release, his reads and his processing. The ball jumps out of his hand with NFL-level velocity, and he’s shown the ability to attack tight windows while maintaining a 68% completion rate and just one interception through eight games. His pocket poise was on full display in the win at Georgia, evading seven pressures without a sack and shredding one of the nation’s best defenses with rhythm and anticipation. He’s not just a passer, either; his body control and functional mobility can extend plays, and his ball security has been pristine.
The résumé is still short, and his deep-ball placement and frame refinement are works in progress. But his fundamental traits of quick processing, command and confidence are what evaluators covet. If Ty Simpson sustains this level through the SEC gauntlet, he’ll enter the NFL conversation as a true outlier: a one-year starter who already looks the part. Returning for 2026 might raise his floor, but his current trajectory suggests he’s ready to test that theory and potentially buck the experience trend entirely.
2025 Heisman Trophy Outlook
- Julian Sayin (QB, Ohio State) | +175
- Fernando Mendoza (QB, Indiana) | +220
- Ty Simpson (QB, Alabama) | +350
- Marcel Reed (QB, Texas A&M) | +650
- Gunner Stockton (QB, Georgia) | +2500
The big jump of the week in the Heisman odds is Julian Sayin, who separated himself from the contenders as the favorite following Ohio State’s smashing of Penn State this past weekend. Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson are firmly in the hunt right behind, with Marcel Reed still clinging in the top four. There’s still plenty of season left for the Heisman Trophy race to play out, but the cream continues rising to the top!
Thanks for reading our article on “2025 College Football Week 11 Preview: Best Bets & Devy Fantasy Football Storylines”.
*Photo Credit: Jeffrey Becker – USA TODAY Sports*
