The start of the NASCAR Cup Series season doesn’t just fire off with any ordinary race. It brings us the 2025 Daytona 500 at the World Center of Racing.
That’s one hell of a way to kick things off, isn’t it?
“The Great American Race” is only about a month away. Each and every driver in the field not only wants to win this race, but they have a realistic chance to win it.
Upset winners have been the tale of the tape in recent memory. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Austin Cindric and Michael McDowell all have been underdogs to claim the Harley J. Earl Trophy this decade. Many of us fondly remember Trevor Bayne’s 2011 shocker, and others will recall Derrike Cope’s last-lap win from 1990.
Although superspeedways like Daytona truly are a great equalizer, it doesn’t mean that drivers can’t give themselves an advantage and consistently perform as strongly as possible.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bubba Wallace Showing Value | Early 2025 Daytona 500 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Our betting model, put together with the help of ifantasyrace.com, shows driver projections for this year’s Daytona 500 based on the following stats at this track in the recent past:
- Daytona Next-Gen (since 2022) Average Finish
- Daytona Next Gen Total Speed Ranking
- 2024 Daytona 500 Average Running Position
- 2024 Daytona 500 Driver Rating
- 2024 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Average Running Position
- 2024 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Driver Rating
Our model also takes into account the average finishing position in 2024 from Talladega and Atlanta, the other two tracks that race similarly to Daytona.
Here are our 2025 Daytona 500 betting model’s top 10 drivers based on those statistics heading into Daytona:
Kyle Busch sits at the top of our model’s projections, earning the only A rating in the field. “Rowdy” has never won a Daytona 500, batting 0-for-19 thus far, and did not win a Cup race last year either. The aforementioned 2022 winner, Cindric, is one of just four drivers to earn at least a B rating.
Of course, these stats are skewed based on finishing positions being altered by large crashes that knock drivers out from strong running spots. But even factoring in that lower curve, they still show who’s who when we go to superspeedways.
I’ve got my eyes on a few drivers based on our projections, odds and past performance at these types of tracks.
Early 2025 Daytona 500 Picks & Predictions
Ryan Blaney (+1300)
One of the X-factors in this race will be Ryan Blaney. The No. 12’s model performance isn’t as strong as I would have expected. Blaney has a D rating of 66%, good for P11 on the board. Still, I suspect those ratings are skewed downward because of his involvement in other people’s messes. Blaney has crashed out in each of the last three Daytona races and finished 20th or worse at both 2024 Talladega races.
It’s a given at this point that Blaney is one of the strongest superspeedway racers in the garage. He finished P2 and P3 in the 2024 Atlanta races and has a trio of Talladega wins to go with a summer 2021 Daytona victory.
Blaney, who has been champion and runner-up in the last two seasons, has the best chance in my book to claim his first Daytona 500 and solidify his spot in Cup Series superstardom.
Ross Chastain (+1600)
Ross Chastain has neither of the pluses that Blaney has; his model performance (an F at P20) isn’t strong, nor is his superspeedway performance on paper. Even taking out a P40 from fall Talladega, Chastain had an unspectacular 13.2 average finish on superspeedways in 2024.
What attracts me to Chastain against the grain isn’t even just his 2022 Talladega win nor his pair of runner-up finishes at Atlanta. At the dawn of a new season, the Daytona 500 gives teams an opportunity for a fresh start and the ability to show what they’ve been working on all winter. That desire for greatness and improvement is no more prevalent than at Trackhouse Racing. Chastain himself came one spot away from a championship in 2022 but has been nowhere near that close the last two seasons, missing the playoffs entirely in 2024.
It’s also that, to put it simply, it takes some swagger and willpower to do what it takes to win a Daytona 500. Chastain was the catalyst of the race’s finish last year, making an ill-timed move going for the win, beginning a crash that ended the race under caution. He’ll know better this time around for the 2025 Daytona 500.
Bubba Wallace (+2000)
When you put together all of the positive traits of Blaney and Chastain, it led me to one driver in particular.
And despite having the longest odds to win of the trio, Bubba Wallace has the best performance of them in our 2025 Daytona 500 betting model. The No. 23’s impressive 83 percent B grade is good for third prize in our rankings.
Wallace’s best track type is superspeedway racing. He’s earned three T5s just factoring in Daytona 500s, let alone a P5 at Atlanta last spring and his 2021 Talladega victory. The 500, in particular, may be his strongest race. Outside of the three T5s (including two runner-ups), Wallace has a P15 and three DNFs due to crashes. Whenever he finishes this race, he finishes well.
Wallace also has the attitude and determination to pair with talent. We know he’s the type of driver like Chastain to go for it when given the opportunity. All in all, it means Wallace cannot be ignored once the green flag drops on Feb. 16.
Check out all of our 2025 NASCAR futures picks & predictions:
- 2025 Xfinity Series Championship Odds, Picks & Projections
- Early 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Bubba Wallace Showing Value | Early 2025 Daytona 500 Picks
- Video: Early 2025 Daytona 500 Picks & Predictions | NASCAR Betting Odds
- Video: 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Futures Odds, Picks & Predictions (First Look)
- Video: 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Futures Season-Long Picks + Best Bets
- Video: 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Bold Predictions + Season Win Total Bets
- Video: 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series Futures Odds, Picks & Predictions (First Look)
Thanks for reading my early 2025 Daytona 500 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Jim Dedmon – USA TODAY Sports*
