Though the NASCAR offseason has barely started, it’s never too early to start thinking about 2025. With odds already on the books for multiple markets for the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship, we can get a head start on picking our favorites for the year ahead.
It takes a mountain of effort over 36 races to win a championship, and you also have to be on the mark in the 10-race playoffs. Joey Logano played the playoffs perfectly once again in 2024 to become a three-time champion.
Does Logano have the best shot at going back-to-back? Will his Team Penske teammate Ryan Blaney reach the sport’s summit again in 2025? Or could we have a first-time champion like William Byron or Christopher Bell?
It’s safe to say the current odds for the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series champion are a fair bit juicy across the board since we’re still waiting for the on-track action to begin. However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t key bets to be made.
Here are my favorite early 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship picks!
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds, Picks & Predictions
Kyle Larson (+550)
The one driver that is impossible to ignore each and every year is Kyle Larson. Since his move to Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) prior to the 2021 season, Larson has won at least three races each season, won six or more in two of those four years and each year has finished T10 in at least half of the races.
The No. 5 didn’t quite match their dominant 2021 season last year, but his six wins and 15 T5 finishes were his best numbers since his championship season. Larson led a series-high 1,700 laps and started on pole in a career-high five races.
The California native is the undisputed best driver in the Cup Series, driving for one of its best teams, and thus can never realistically be counted out.
Denny Hamlin (+750)
“Always the bridesmaid, never the bride” has summed up Denny Hamlin’s career thus far. A 54-time Cup Series winner, Hamlin has finished T5 in the points standings in nine of his 19 full-time seasons but has never won a championship. In the current playoff format, Hamlin has qualified for the Championship 4 on four occasions.
Hamlin’s No.11 has won multiple races in each season of the Next Gen car and each season dating back to 2019. It’s possible that 2024 may have been the beginning of the end of his prime, however. Hamlin won three of the first 11 races but did not return to victory lane after that and was eliminated in the Round of 8.
With that said, it’s not as if we haven’t seen drivers win championships past their prime or when they aren’t the best driver of a particular season. Hamlin has accomplished all there is to do at stock car racing’s top level except win its biggest prize; I still think the skill is there for him to finally cross that finish line first in 2025.
Chase Briscoe (+1800)
Although the pairing of Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) and Toyota has not claimed a Cup Series championship with any driver not named Kyle Busch, it’s not just Hamlin who has a chance for the team in 2025. Chase Briscoe made the jump to JGR’s No. 19 team from the closed Stewart-Haas Racing (JGR), replacing Martin Truex Jr. after his retirement.
Though the No. 19 team with Truex Jr. went winless in two of three Next-Gen seasons, having a young, motivated driver behind the wheel rather than a veteran who may have had half his mind on a fishing boat on Sundays gives some hope for the future. Briscoe’s drive to a walk-off playoff-qualifying victory at the 2024 Southern 500 was one of the stories of the season. Though the No. 14 was eliminated in the Round of 12, just being able to earn that victory and advance out of the first round on a dying team was quite the accomplishment.
One could argue that Briscoe’s fifth full-time Cup season in 2025 will be his first in truly competitive equipment. If that’s the case, I expect big things out of this team in the year ahead.
Cole Custer (+25000)
I have some news to break to you: Cole Custer will not win the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series championship. Still, this line is absolutely disrespectful to Custer, a Cup Series winner with an Xfinity Series title and runner-up points finish in the last two seasons.
I think the books believe that Haas Factory Team will be much worse than SHR was. Honestly, I’d believe that to be true as well. But that doesn’t excuse drivers such as Austin Dillon, Erik Jones and Zane Smith (who isn’t even confirmed for a Cup seat in 2025) having better odds than Custer. None of that trio finished better than 28th in the 2024 standings.
Haas being able to retain some amount of speed and Custer showing the racing talent that he clearly has could result in an upset regular-season victory. That would mean a playoff berth, making the books sweat big-time at this number. The potential cash-out value is what you’re playing here, and in this territory of longshots, Custer is a better name than most to take that home-run swing on.
Thanks for reading my best bets for the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez – USA TODAY Sports*
