No track in NASCAR has caught more flak than Texas Motor Speedway in recent years. Putting on multiple years of boring, poor racing, the Fort Worth, Texas, track has since been reduced to one date on the schedule and hosted a terrible All-Star Race in the interim as well.
But the Next-Gen car over the years has changed everything.
Intermediate, “cookie-cutter” ovals now produce the best racing on the circuit. Though it’s come at the expense of most other track types, it’s given tracks like Texas new life.
I never would have thought I’d be as excited for a Texas race as I am, but giddy up; let’s ride.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Alex Bowman Looks to Lasso the Field | 2025 Würth 400 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
As noted, Texas qualifies as a high-speed 1.5-mile intermediate oval that formerly littered the Cup Series schedule. There are still enough similar tracks that make this race weekend easier to predict.
Each of Charlotte, Kansas and Las Vegas are primary comparisons. Michigan and Homestead are moderately similar and can draw data as well, but not closely enough to use in this week’s IBT Betting Model, powered by ifantasyrace.com.
- Texas Next-Gen Average Finish
- Texas Next-Gen Total Speed Ranking
- 2024 Texas Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2025 Las Vegas I Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2024 High-Speed 1.5-Mile Average Finish
- 2024 High-Speed 1.5-Mile Total Speed Rankings
- 2025 Conventional Tracks Total Speed Rankings
- Xfinity & Truck Series @ Texas Bonus
We have a new projections record! William Byron is just about as close to perfect as possible, rating at an unbelievable 98% IBT Grade. Traditional intermediate frontrunners like Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin put up respectable numbers, while both Ross Chastain and Brad Keselowski are higher than expected.
You may be shocked that Byron isn’t one of my primary picks (check Thursday’s “The Backroad” for all your Byron needs), but you don’t have to go much further to start my picks off.
2025 Würth 400 Picks & Predictions
Tyler Reddick (+750)
Tyler Reddick and Texas Motor Speedway fit together better than your favorite pair of cowboy boots. Reddick is a driver who thrives on high-speed ovals, and his Texas stats show it. His 2022 win in Fort Worth is one of three T5 and four T10 finishes here, including a P4 finish last spring. That certainly helps lead to his runner-up placement on our projections.
The California native has led at least 36 laps in each of the last three Texas races. The No. 45 has also had strong runs on intermediate tracks this season, finishing P8 at Homestead and P4 at Darlington.
Although Texas doesn’t have the same wall-ripping racing line as that pair, they certainly can serve as a good warmup for a Texas Two-Step.
Christopher Bell (+800)
Christopher Bell has perhaps been the series’ best driver on this track type of late. The No. 20 has a series-best 5.5 average finish on high-speed 1.5-mile ovals dating back to his Charlotte win last May. On the ifantasyrace.com stat sheet, Bell looks even more impressive.
The Oklahoma native ranks runner-up in both driver rating and average running position on those track types. As for Texas, Bell has a trio of top-four finishes, matching with a trio of top-eight finishes in 2025’s last three races before crashing from the lead last week at Talladega.
Bell also returns to the dirt track at the facility this weekend, and extra laps and extra fun generally make for happy race car drivers.
Alex Bowman (+2200)
Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) looks strong across the board this weekend, but it’s Alex Bowman’s longshot odds that intrigue me the most this week.
It’s not necessarily that Bowman’s Texas stats pop off the board; he’s crashed here three of the last four years and has just two career T10 finishes (though both are T5s).
However, the other high-speed intermediates have been impressive for the No. 48. Bowman is right behind Bell in average finish at this track type at 6.8, finishing between P5 and P9 in each of those last five races. The Arizona native nearly won the most recent intermediate-track race at Homestead and ran P7 at Las Vegas in March.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Würth 400 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez – USA TODAY Sports*
