Some say stock car racing is at its best on the short tracks. The tight corners and beatin’ and bangin’ around “The Paperclip” at Martinsville Speedway opens the NASCAR Cup Series short track schedule.
The victor after 400 laps claims one of the sport’s most unique trophies, a grandfather clock.
And if it ends up in smoke?
“Well, son, rubbin’ is racin’.”
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Can Ryan Blaney Avoid Another Wretched Week? | 2025 Cook Out 400 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Martinsville Speedway is a unique half-mile short track, quite literally shaped like a paper clip. The similar shape can draw comparison to New Hampshire, with Bristol being a similar length of track as well. But this Virginia oval is truly one of a kind.
Though they are non-points races with smaller fields, both North Wilkesboro’s 2024 All-Star Race and Bowman Gray Stadium’s 2025 Cook Out Clash race are factored into our model powered by ifantasyrace.com. They may not be as similar as the aforementioned comp tracks, but small tracks with tight corners are few and far between in the Cup Series.
- Martinsville Next-Gen Average Finish
- Martinsville Next-Gen Total Speed Ranking
- 2024 Martinsville I and II Driver Rating
- 2024 Martinsville I and II Average Position
- 2024 New Hampshire Average Position
- 2024 North Wilkesboro All-Star Race Finish
- 2025 Bowman Gray Stadium Clash Finish
- Xfinity & Truck Series @ Martinsville Bonus
We’ve got a tie at the top of our projections this week! Both Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott, last fall’s top two finishers here, both rank at 93% IBT Grages. The middle tier of the projections features week-in, week-out contenders like Denny Hamlin and William Byron. Short track ace Ryan Preece rounds out our top 10, but he’s nearly 30 percentage points off the pace.
There’s a lot of different directions to go in a week like this, but staying within the confines of The Paperclip’s past can’t hurt us.
2025 Cook Out 400 Picks & Predictions
Ryan Blaney (+400)
To be honest, with how strong Ryan Blaney looks this weekend, I’m a little surprised to even get a +400 number. Not only has Blaney been top-notch at Martinsville (at the top of our projections), but he has also been the fastest in the garage as of late.
The only issue is that the finishes haven’t matched with the speed the No. 12 team has had. Blaney was likely to wax the field at Homestead last week before blowing an engine. That was his second blown motor in three weeks of hell, sandwiching a crash at Las Vegas.
Martinsville must be a sight for sore eyes for Blaney. He’s won in do-or-die situations each of the last two fall races here and has finished no worse than P7 in the Next-Gen car. The Ohio native has an average finish of 8.3 and has led 554 career laps at Martinsville.
If there’s anywhere that Blaney’s luck can change, he’s at the right place.
Chase Elliott (+650)
Chase Elliott’s start to 2025 hasn’t looked terrible on paper. He’s finished T10 in half of the first six races. However, it’s clear that the No. 9 has had the slowest start at Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) this season, lagging behind his teammates who are the top 3 in the standings.
Martinsville is a great opportunity for Elliott to get back on track. He’s even with Blaney at the top of our model, earning T10 finishes in five of the six Next Gen races here. The Georgia native has led more than 1,000 laps at the Virginia short track, including at least 64 in the last three races and 123 or more in five runs throughout his career.
HMS generally dominates the spring Martinsville race, as either William Byron or Kyle Larson has won each of the trio of Next Gen spring races.
Specifically, Elliott finished P3 last spring and P2 last fall. Maybe this is the weekend he completes the countdown and earns a P1.
Bubba Wallace (+3000)
Perhaps the most pleasant surprise of the season so far has been Bubba Wallace’s return to form. Wallace has led in four of the season’s six races and earned a P3 finish last week at Homestead.
Martinsville has been good to the No. 23 team of late as well. Wallace was the top non-HMS car last spring, finishing P4. The Alabama native has a trio of T10 finishes plus a P11 in the six Next Gen races here.
In the fall, Wallace was part of the wrong end of the story, playing a part in the late-race manipulation that eliminated Christopher Bell from the playoffs. He’ll hope to be on the other end this time and clinch his spot in the postseason instead.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Cook Out 400 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Jim Dedmon – USA TODAY Sports*
