The NASCAR Cup Series finds itself in the Irish Hills this weekend at Michigan International Speedway. Racing here since 1969, Michigan is one of the more underrated historical tracks on the circuit. It’s one of the great homes for the sport that lies outside of its typical southeastern roots.
But its connection with one of the manufacturers is just as vital.
The Ford family connection to Michigan dates back to the turn of the 20th century, as the company was founded and still bases its world headquarters there. No one loves winning races anywhere more than Ford loves winning at Michigan.
They’ve been pretty good at it over the years, winning 31 pole positions and 44 races here. That includes an impressive run of nine straight victories at the track from 2018 through 2023. Jack Roush’s team, now known as Roush Fenway Keselowski (RFK) Racing, has 14 of those wins split among six different drivers.
Every team with that blue oval on their stock car will be hoping to add their name to history this time around.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Carson Hocevar Is Pushing the Boundaries | 2025 FireKeepers Casino 400 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Like last week at Nashville, Michigan is a track that doesn’t race exactly like others on the circuit. But it’s another where the intermediates, slightly smaller than Michigan’s two-mile length, can draw some comparisons.
Kansas is viewed as a mini-Michigan, and visits this year to Charlotte, Las Vegas, Homestead and Texas give a basis to work out our IBT Betting Model powered by ifantasyrace.com.
- Michigan Next-Gen Average Finish
- Michigan Next-Gen Total Speed Ranking
- 2024 Michigan Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2025 Charlotte Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2025 Kansas I Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2025 Texas Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2025 Las Vegas I Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2025 Homestead Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2024 High-Speed 1.5-Mile Average Finish
- 2025 Conventional Tracks Total Speed Ranking
- Xfinity & Truck Series @ Michigan Bonus
The model tops out at a lower grade than most weeks, which makes sense to me with a wide variety of metrics involved. The three most recent points-race winners (Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain and Ryan Blaney) are all represented in the top 10, as well as each of the active Next-Gen Michigan winners (Chris Buescher and Tyler Reddick). But it’s generally another direction I’m traveling with my picks this week.
The three drivers I’ve picked have all had unbelievable speed over the season, especially the last few weeks. None of them have found victory lane yet in 2025, but this is as good a weekend as any to put a full race together and claim a checkered flag.
2025 FireKeepers Casino 400 Picks & Predictions
Tyler Reddick (+800)
It feels like the same old story with Tyler Reddick every week. The No. 45 has unbelievable speed, but something goes awry and good finishes, let alone wins, become hard to come by.
That felt like parts of Reddick’s 2024 season as well, broken up by claiming victory at Michigan last August.
This year, however, the consistency for 23XI Racing isn’t quite the same as it was last summer. Reddick’s P9 at Nashville was his first T10 since Darlington on April 10 and just his third dating back to the second week of March.
With Reddick placing sixth in this week’s projections, it shows just how wide open this weekend’s race could be. The California native doesn’t even really have Michigan success to fall back on; last year’s win was his only finish better than P18 and just his second T20 in the Wolverine State. What that does show is that Reddick has had speed, and like many others in the field, just needs to put the full race weekend together.
Chase Briscoe (+1800)
We’ve finally begun to see Chase Briscoe growing into his new Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) equipment. The No. 19 team has had plenty of speed of late, winning the pole in each of the last two races. At Charlotte, things went pretty well, with Briscoe finishing P3. At Nashville, not so much, coming home with a P17 after putting it on the pole.
That’s been the story of the first half of the regular season for Briscoe. A pair of P4s at Homestead and Kansas are brought down by Las Vegas’ P17 and Texas’ P27. All in all, however, it leads to an 11th place in the projections this week for the Indiana native.
Michigan hasn’t been the strongest track for Briscoe; his best finish is P11, and he’s finished P31 in each of the last two years here. But that was the Briscoe of old, with a dying team rather than a blossoming one.
Carson Hocevar (+1800)
This is an outright number that I didn’t think we would come close to seeing for Carson Hocevar in 2025. However, the No. 77 team is genuinely running like a contender as the summer stretch begins.
Hocevar followed up a disappointing engine issue while running on the front row at Charlotte by finishing runner-up at Nashville. He had speed to run toward the front, and executing the “money stop” in the final pit window led to a second runner-up finish of 2025 for Hocevar.
Heading to his home track in Michigan, we can no longer ignore the fact that the second-year Cup driver could win this season. Michigan is one of the tracks where Hocevar already has results, starting P11 and finishing P10 in last year’s race.
Rough finishes in other races this year put Hocevar at P16 in our model this week. Still, it’s all about putting full races together now, and I have more faith in this team than almost any other heading into this weekend.
Thanks for reading my 2025 FireKeepers Casino 400 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
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*Photo Credit: Randy Sartin – USA Today Sports*
