One thing that NASCAR has gotten right in recent years is diversifying the schedule.
Growing up in an era where race weekends largely remained the same, it’s a breath of fresh air to see the trio of national touring series try new things occasionally.
Everything from reconfiguring or revitalizing old tracks to adding markets and road courses (even a street course) has helped make the Cup Series, in particular, all the more intriguing.
But it also brought back racing to some older, more traditional ovals and markets like Nashville Superspeedway.
The Lebanon, Tenn., track hosted Xfinity and Truck Series races from 2001 through 2011, with the Cup Series making its debut there in 2021. The track now traditionally hosts triple-header weekends, which have been nothing short of entertaining, including a five-overtime thriller in last year’s Cup race.
It’ll be exciting to see what’s around the corner this time around.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Chase Elliott Needs Momentum in Music City | 2025 Cracker Barrel 400 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Nashville is a track that is fairly unique, all things considered. It’s the largest (1.33 miles) concrete track on the circuit, which draws comparisons to another medium-ish concrete oval at Dover. But Nashville races more like your 1.5-mile intermediates than Delaware’s “Monster Mile” does.
We’ve included stats from both varieties in our ifantasyrace.com-powered IBT Betting Model this week.
- Nashville Next-Gen Average Finish
- Nashville Next-Gen Total Speed Ranking
- 2024 Nashville Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2024 Dover Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2025 Charlotte Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2025 Kansas I Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2025 Texas Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2025 Las Vegas I Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2024 High-Speed 1.5-Mile Average Finish
- Xfinity & Truck Series @ Nashville Bonus
It’s no surprise that three of the four Nashville winners are in the top 10 this week. But the diversity of the stats this week keeps the highest IBT Drade down at 86%, with only the top two scoring above 80 percent.
That leads me to believe that Nashville stats could be most important, which is where we’re starting with this week’s picks.
2025 Cracker Barrel 400 Picks & Predictions
Ross Chastain (+900)
Last week’s winner, Ross Chastain, has perhaps the best chance to go back-to-back of any driver I’ve tried to project this season. The No. 1 team is riding high after being the first driver in more than 50 years to start last on merit and win a race. Even before having to rebuild the car after a practice crash, Chastain was among the fastest cars on track. It’s a positive sign after how tough Saturdays have been for Trackhouse Racing this season.
The positive momentum should continue as Nashville is one of Chastain’s best tracks.
The Florida native has a win and three T5 finishes in four races, and was well on his way to another great run last year before crashing while battling for the lead in the first overtime. He has led laps in three of the four Nashville races, including 99 in his 2023 win and 45 last year.
Chastain has also quietly put up six T7 finishes in 2025’s last nine races.
Chase Elliott (+1400)
It’s no surprise that each of the Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) drivers are represented in our model’s top 10. But Chase Elliott is the direction I’m going with in the Music City. Elliott won the 2022 Nashville race and has two T5s in the three Next-Gen races here. The No. 9 was P18 last year but had an average running position just outside the top 10.
Although the Georgia native has faced criticism this year for lacking race-winning speed, the team’s consistency in achieving strong finishes remains. Elliott quietly finished P6 at last week’s Coca-Cola 600.
A.J. Allmendinger (+4500)
Normally, I would only go for longshots like this at superspeedways or maybe road courses, but A.J. Allmendinger has earned some love this week. Ranked within our model’s top 20, Allmendinger ran strong all night at Charlotte and finished P4.
It’s been a continuation of strong intermediate runs for the No. 16 prior to bad luck striking recently at Kansas and Texas. The California native finished P8 at Las Vegas and P7 at Homestead earlier in the year. Allmendinger, who has finishes of P10 and P11 the last two years at Nashville, is fifth-best in the Cup Series with a 13.3 average finish in the Music City.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Cracker Barrel 400 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Jerome Miron – USA TODAY Sports*
