Although the West Coast swing is over, the NASCAR Cup Series is sticking with the vacation vibes. Homestead-Miami Speedway plays host in the springtime this year rather than its more traditional fall timeframe.
After an unbelievable race last year, stock car racing’s best drivers look to put on another sensational show in South Beach.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Chase Elliott Shining in South Beach | 2025 Straight Talk Wireless 400 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Homestead-Miami Speedway is also a 1.5-mile intermediate oval like Las Vegas, but Sin City and South Beach could hardly race more differently. Tire wear matters much more at Homestead, and the track features less banking. That makes Darlington Raceway the main comparison to look at this week.
Just like at Darlington, the fastest way around Homestead is on the high side, getting as close to the wall as possible without making contact. It’s the comp track we’ve weighed especially heavy in our ifantasyrace.com model statistics, which are:
- Homestead Next-Gen Average Finish
- Homestead Next-Gen Total Speed Rankings
- 2024 Homestead Average Position
- 2024 Homestead Driver Rating
- 2024 Intermediate High Tire Wear Average Finish & Total Speed Rankings
- Xfinity & Truck Series @ Homestead Bonus
The asterisk next to A.J. Allmendinger at P7 reflects our usage of his 2023 statistics at Darlington, as that track was not part of his 2024 part-time schedule. While Allmendinger may be a surprise to see in our T10, the Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) duo of Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell shouldn’t be. Tyler Reddick and Kyle Larson have also been prolific at Homestead in the past.
As effective as our model has been of late, there’s no reason to stray too far from its findings in this week’s picks.
2025 Straight Talk Wireless 400 Picks & Predictions
Tyler Reddick (+500)
Reddick was the talk of the town after last fall’s Homestead race. The No. 45 made an unbelievable last-lap pass for the win to lock the team into the Championship 4 at Phoenix.
In that race, Reddick had the top total speed ranking, courtesy of ifantasyrace.com, until going off strategy in the final stage, a move which paid off handsomely.
As a driver who loves to rip the wall, the California native has to feel at home in South Beach. The stats show a near-perfect record at Homestead, finishing in each of the top four positions in his five Cup starts here.
His strong runs on similar tracks, including leading 34 laps just last week at Las Vegas, results in a T5 projections placement for Reddick.
Chase Elliott (+1100)
Chase Elliott is rapidly approaching another year passing by since going to victory lane, but the sport’s most popular driver could easily make his return there this weekend. Elliott was third-best in the total speed rankings last fall, leading 81 laps on his way to a P5 finish. The No. 9 has four career T10 finishes here and has never finished worse than 15th.
The Georgia native is building consistency in 2025, finishing T10 in each of the last three races.
Elliott’s P3 in the model comes from strong finishes at comp tracks, including a pair of T12 Darlington finishes last year. Although Texas isn’t a direct comparison to Homestead, Elliott’s win last spring helps put more faith into a good run at South Beach.
A.J. Allmendinger (+8000)
With how impressive A.J. Allmendinger’s recent history at Homestead has been, you’d never expect odds this long.
Allmendinger is the only driver to finish T10 in each of the Next Gen races here. His runs of P3, P5 and P8 add up to a joint-best average finish in the Next Gen era, level with Bell. Over his career, the California native has a trio of additional T10 finishes and a very strong 14.9 average finish in 13 starts here.
The No. 16 ran well on a similar Las Vegas track last week, finishing P8 there as well.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Straight Talk Wireless 400 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez – USA TODAY Sports*
