Who would have thought that, with all the prestigious and exciting races on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule, a simple 1.5-mile intermediate in America’s heartland would be christened as the sport’s best track?
That’s exactly what Kansas Speedway has been in the Next-Gen era, providing exciting racing and top-tier finishes, including the closest finish in Cup Series history last spring.
As we can begin to feel the heat of the summer stretch, things are about to get real very quickly. There’s no better place to be to get it rolling.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Chris Buescher Wants Retribution | 2025 AdventHealth 400 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Kansas is a relatively new track, opened in 2001 and home to NASCAR racing ever since. A typical 1.5-mile intermediate with progressive banking peaking at 20 degrees in the turns, there’s no shortage of comparable tracks.
Las Vegas is all but a sister track to Kansas, with each of Charlotte, Michigan and Homestead providing similar racing as well.
Oh, and who could forget Texas, home of the series’ most recent race? It sets up extremely well for the blend of recent performance plus track history, leading to our most involved IBT Betting Model, powered by ifantasyrace.com.
- Kansas Next-Gen Average Finish
- Kansas Next-Gen Total Speed Ranking
- 2024 Kansas I and II Average Position
- 2024 Kansas I and II Driver Rating
- 2025 Texas Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2025 Las Vegas I Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2025 Homestead Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2024 High-Speed 1.5-Mile Tracks Average Finish
- 2024 High-Speed 1.5-Mile Tracks Total Speed Ranking*
- 2025 Conventional Tracks Total Speed Ranking
- Xfinity & Truck Series @ Kansas Bonus
(*excluding Homestead and Michigan)
Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) unsurprisingly sweeps the podium of our model, each rating out with at least an 80% IBT Grade. Overall, it’s a who’s who of the series’ top intermediate oval drivers, painting the perfect picture for our betting cards.
2025 AdventHealth 400 Picks & Predictions
Kyle Larson (+400)
Kyle Larson is a juicy favorite this weekend, but there are plenty of reasons (as usual) to bet on last spring’s closest-ever Cup finish winner.
The No. 5 has had the best ifantasyrace.com total speed ranking each of the last three races. Larson’s total speed ranking at the high-speed 1.5-mile tracks is in the top three in the series; his only blemish keeping him off the top was the most recent Kansas race.
Before that P26 last fall, the California native hadn’t finished worse than P8 at Kansas in the Next-Gen era.
Larson has also exhibited his typical general dominance in 2025, finishing no worse than P9 in the last eight races outside of his Darlington blunders.
Chris Buescher (+2200)
Chris Buescher came so close to claiming victory here last spring, and could certainly be one spot better this time around. The No. 17 followed up his runner-up finish with a P11 last fall, barely missing adding to his four career T10s in the heartland.
Last year showed plenty of improvement for the Roush Fenway Keselowski (RFK) Racing stable at high-speed intermediates. The Texas native also had T10 finishes at both Michigan and Las Vegas late last year.
In the last two intermediate comp track races in 2025, Buescher rallied to a P18 after tire issues while running third last week at Texas and ran P6 at Homestead.
Alex Bowman (+2500)
Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) as a whole has been strong at Kansas (as the model shows) and it leads me to double down on Alex Bowman in the heartland.
It’s no secret to frequent readers, watchers or listeners that Bowman is my favorite driver. But if anything, it makes me scrutinize every move and every bet on the No. 48 team more than any other. So generally, if I’m confident in Bowman, it’s at least worth a look.
Bowman had one of the fastest cars before being involved in the Texas “Big One,” driving from mid-pack to P3 in Stage No. 2 at a track and with a package where passing came at a premium.
If the Arizona native can recapture that speed, Kansas has been an even better track for him. In the Next-Gen era, Bowman is five-for-five in T10 finishes and tied for second in average finish here. His best oval race in the Next-Gen came in the fall 2022 race here, leading 107 laps and finishing P4.
Thanks for reading my 2025 AdventHealth 400 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Jerome Miron – USA TODAY Sports*
