Over the last few weeks, I’ve talked about both schedule and location diversity in the NASCAR series. This weekend brings the best of both worlds to the Cup Series circuit, as stock car racing’s finest make their inaugural trip south of the border for the Viva México 250.
Mexico City’s Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez began hosting races in 1962 and has been an on-and-off piece of the Formula 1 schedule ever since. The track is named after brothers Pedro and Ricardo Rodríguez, the latter of whom tragically passed during practice for one of the venue’s first events. Since then, NASCAR’s Mexico Series and Formula E are yearly users of the oval configuration, and the challenging road course was put to the test by Xfinity Series drivers from 2005 through 2008.
Nearly two decades later, we’re back to fire up the fiesta once again.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Daniel Suarez Seeks Homeland Win | 2025 Viva México 250 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Since the Viva México 250 is the NASCAR Cup Series’ first event at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, we can’t draw from any past events there. But the 15-turn road course compares well enough to others on the circuit, and that allowed us to build a modest but effective IBT Betting Model powered by ifantasyrace.com.
- 2025 Circuit of The Americas (COTA) Average Position & Driver Rating
- Road Course Total Speed Rankings Since 2024
- Road Course Finishes Since 2024
- Mexico City Experience Bonus
With COTA being the only road course race thus far in 2025, it’s no surprise that top finishers from that event rank highly in the model. Christopher Bell was the winner that day, and Kyle Busch led the most laps. Road-course aces such as Shane van Gisbergen, AJ Allmendinger and Michael McDowell have earned their flowers as well, ranking at or near the top of the model for this week.
The drivers that are strongest making lefts and rights are also the strongest picks this week.
2025 Viva México 250 Picks & Predictions
Shane van Gisbergen (+330)
It’s finally time once again for Shane van Gisbergen, or SVG, to shine. Though he’s a juicy favorite across the board, it’s well justified, as SVG has been the series’ best on road courses since arriving on American shores.
His 2023 Chicago victory was just the tip of the iceberg, although it’s still his only Cup Series win. The New Zealand native has a 9.0 average finish on road courses, second-best in the series. He’s got the top total speed rankings and van Gisbergen tops our model with a 94 percent.
Last year, SVG won a trio of road course races in the Xfinity Series. The No. 88 has even been improving on ovals lately, earning top-20 finishes in three of the last four races. He’s the favorite to win the Viva México 250 for a reason and a solid bet.
Daniel Suarez (+1400)
There was no chance that the Cup Series’ lone Mexican driver wouldn’t be mentioned in the series’ inaugural race there. Daniel Suarez has had his fair share of road course prowess, including his first career Cup win at the 2022 Sonoma race. That same year, the No. 99 earned P5 finishes at Watkins Glen and Road America.
Since then, it’s been a different story for Suarez making lefts and rights. His last top ten at a road course came at Indianapolis in 2023. This spring at the Circuit of The Americas, Suarez was P6 in total speed rankings before being involved in a crash.
I’m taking less away from middling 2023-24 results at road courses and trusting the process. It’s not just Trackhouse’s road course skills (although each of their Cup drivers has a road course victory), but the knowledge and expectations for hometown hero Suarez that will prime him for success.
Chris Buescher (+1600)
Without a doubt, the best value of the week is Chris Buescher. A +1600 ticket is far better than I expected for No. 17 this week at the Viva México 250.
The only driver with a better average finish on road courses than Shane van Gisbergen is Chris Buescher, who has a 7.9 since 2022. It was Buescher who outdueled SVG on the final lap to win at Watkins Glen last fall. The Texas native is seventh best in total speed rankings on road courses.
Excluding last year’s Charlotte ROVAL race, Chris Buescher has finished top-ten in six consecutive road course races and 13 of 16 Next-Gen road course events. He has the skills and he certainly has the betting value.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Viva México 250 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Jamie Harms – USA Today Sports*
