The NASCAR Cup Series is already onto the fifth race weekend of the season, taking place at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The real contenders are beginning to arise, and the patterns emerging are more than just coincidence.
One of those patterns has been Christopher Bell claiming three consecutive victories. The 35 other drivers on the track will hope to be lucky enough to start a streak of their own in Sin City.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Denny Hamlin Seeking Sin City Jackpot | 2025 Pennzoil 400 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Las Vegas Motor Speedway is the first of what were once known as the “cookie-cutter” 1.5-mile ovals. The high-speed intermediate compares most closely to Kansas, while Michigan, Charlotte and Texas are similar in their own ways.
As a result, the model this week may paint a better picture for general success over the course of the season, with some of its most important and frequently visited tracks included. This week’s model, in collaboration with ifantasyrace.com, is put together as follows:
- Las Vegas Next-Gen Average Finish
- Las Vegas Next-Gen Total Speed Rankings
- 2024 Las Vegas I and II Average Position
- 2024 Las Vegas I and II Driver Rating
- 2024 High-Speed 1.5-Mile Average Finish & Total Speed Rankings
- Xfinity & Truck Series @ Las Vegas Bonus
Our bonus points based on starts and success in the lower series are here to stay on traditional tracks.
Our model does not feature an A-rated driver this week, but William Byron comes quite close. Ratings were razor-thin in the middle once again, with sixth through ninth all ranking with the same IBT Grade.
Without any part-time drivers or cars in this week’s field (a first in NASCAR’s modern era), the picture of success being painted couldn’t be much clearer.
2025 Pennzoil 400 Picks & Predictions
William Byron (+750)
Though William Byron is the favorite in our model, he’s not the favorite in the books. A +750 DraftKings outright seems generous compared to a relatively unbettable +400 for the aforementioned Bell as well as Kyle Larson.
Byron has been nearly every bit as good as Bell to start the year, leading in every race and leading the points standings. The Daytona 500 champion has been P2 and P6 in the last two races, keeping tradition with early-season hot starts.
The No. 24 has finished T10 in five of six Next-Gen races here, including a spring 2023 victory. Byron’s playoff hot streak, including a Kansas P2 and a P4 here last fall, certainly helped him top our model as well.
Denny Hamlin (+850)
It’s clear Denny Hamlin isn’t on his hottest streak at the moment. Watching a teammate win week after week and coming up on a year since your last victory is never easy. But a Vegas vacation could be just what Hamlin needs to get back on top.
The No. 11 finished P8 in both 2024 Las Vegas races, leading laps in each of the last nine here. Hamlin hasn’t finished worse than P11 in the last five Vegas races, and he’s won at comp tracks Charlotte and Kansas in the Next-Gen era. The Virginia native was third-quickest on this track type in Ifantasyrace.com’s total speed rankings in 2024, right where he sits in our model.
It’s just as clear that this old dog won’t need to learn new tricks to get back to victory lane.
Chris Buescher (+4000)
Chris Buescher has quietly earned T10 finishes in three of the first four races this season as well. And although his Las Vegas stats aren’t spectacular, there could be sneaky value at this price.
Buescher’s outside of the top 10 in our model largely because of only two career T10s here and a DNF last spring. It’s how the No. 17 performs on the comp tracks that makes that team intriguing at P13 on the model.
The Texas native had a trio of top-seven total speed rankings on comp tracks and was P8 in the series last year. We all remember his ultra-close P2 finish at Kansas, but a P6 at Michigan and P10 here last fall should keep the No. 17 car on our radar.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Pennzoil 400 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Jamie Harms – USA TODAY Sports*
