Cíao! After a quick week-long break in the 305, Formula 1 is back for its first European race of the season in Imola, Italy. The Emilia Romagna Grand Prix is notably famous and iconic for Imola’s rich history. Teams are bringing countless updates in the second triple-header of the season and one has been fairly active.
The Emilia Romagna Grand Prix picks surrounding its home team are interesting. Alpine has Franco Colapinto to replace Jack Doohan for at least the next five races. Colapinto stood out for Williams last season and will make his season debut in Imola. However, the other Alpine news was more surprising: team principal Oliver Oakes’ departure. The Emilia Romagna Grand Prix could be something for Alpine.
Meanwhile, Oscar Piastri continues to dominate the grid with 131 points, while McLaren teammate Lando Norris trails him at 115. Max Verstappen is just outside of 100 points at 99, while George Russell has 93. The biggest story, however, is Ferrari’s first home race and being on the hot seat. All eyes are on the Tifosi and I’ll share my favorite Emilia Romagna Grand Prix Picks.
Let’s get into it.
(Odds courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook)
Does Ferrari Finally Win? | 2025 Emilia Romagna Grand Prix Picks
McLaren is continuing their dominance, unsurprisingly leading in both the Driver’s Championship and the Constructor’s Championship. They are obvious favorites to win in Imola, but it is also historically a trickier track. There is only one DRS zone for now but that will likely be extended due to the track’s structure. Pit stops could decrease with a longer pit lane.
Because of the track’s complexity, experience will certainly matter in Italy. It is why I remain confident in Max Verstappen against the McLaren duo. I also expect a dominant performance from Kimi Antonelli, who has done countless test drives in Imola and is coming off a sixth-place finish in Miami behind Alex Albon. It just makes sense.
However, the biggest storyline to watch is the home team amidst Ferrari’s ongoing struggles. Ferrari remains close to Red Bull for third in the Constructor’s Championship with 94 points, but their strategy and original car have proved to be mostly disastrous. Charles Leclerc may be heating up after a third-place finish in Saudi Arabia, but he then finished seventh at Miami in front of Lewis Hamilton.
This team is due. Leclerc and Hamilton are sitting just behind Mercedes and Max Verstappen, who I think will have a solid weekend. But if Ferrari loses their home race, it’s time for conversations.
2025 Emilia Romagna Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
I’m sorry, Ferrari folks. Just like the Dallas Cowboys, it’s not your year if you cannot win in your home race. Lewis Hamilton’s brash comments were understandable, as his new team’s strategy has been catastrophic all season. Charles Leclerc has faced an ongoing battle with water. The team has reportedly had “no major upgrades” either. Oye. Leclerc may have reached a podium, but I don’t have faith in Ferrari overall. If I’m the Tifosi, I would be frustrated, but maybe the energy of a new Pope can give Leo Leclerc that umph.
Oscar Piastri (+150)
Oscar Piastri is the chosen one. Not really (or maybe). His outright may be the same as his Papaya teammate once again, but this is a solid safe bet and a gimme. Piastri has won three races in a row and four for the season, and he is on a good pace to win his fourth consecutive race in Imola. The usual betting trends are to keep betting on the champion, favorite, etc. This is where parlays come in to add some value, but if you want a nice, safe bet once again, the Aussie driver is a good one.
That being said, one point of caution for betting: overtaking is more difficult on Imola’s track, so McLaren could struggle a little bit because this is an area where they have thrived all season. Piastri only being in his third season could also cause some to understandably fade him, but he’s just too hot to pass, especially on his current streak.
Lando Norris (+150)
The experience of Lando Norris could give him the edge over Piastri, despite falling short each race minus the Australian Grand Prix. Norris finished nearly five seconds behind his teammate in Miami. I wouldn’t necessarily fade the Brit, but his qualifying struggles have shown on the track this season outside of the 305. It makes sense that he has the best odds with his teammate; McLaren is simply on fire. Overtaking discussions raise a concern, but he also finished second behind Max Verstappen last season. His experience on tougher tracks alone make it a good reason to not fade him if you choose Norris over Piastri.
Max Verstappen (+400)
Things have not been simply lovely lately if you’re the Dutch driver. He only has one win this season in Japan and is still a few races away from taking over the Driver’s Championship lead, pending where the McLaren drivers finish this week. This line at +400 is enough juice to win some, especially if you pair it with a Kimi Antonelli Top 4 finish bet (+275) and Carlos Sainz Top 6 finish (+400).
The new girl dad is hungry and angry, which he should be. I sound like a broken record, but even with Verstappen falling short, it’s hard to give up on him. First, he’s won at Imola the past three years (2023 was canceled due to floods) and second, he has proven he can drive on the difficult tracks with his accolades and his experience. He’s a solid value bet for Imola.
Emilia Romagna Prix Dark Horse
George Russell (+1600)
You can argue that both Mercedes drivers are dark horses. However, I’m choosing George Russell simply because of the +1600 outright and his ongoing success so far this season. While the rookie has been sensational so far, Kimi Antonelli’s value is just a little too high for me at +3500. I would’ve bitten it if it were a bit lower, so a Top 4 finish as I mentioned earlier is the safer bet on Antonelli if you pair it with the outright winner and podium finish lines.
On the other hand, George Russell has finished on a podium in all races minus Saudi Arabia and Japan, so he is due. Mercedes’ updates look appealing enough to push them over that hump and give McLaren a run for their money. I’m personally fading him, but he isn’t a bad option if you’re feeling a little more frisky or just a Mercedes fan.
Top 6 Finish Predictions
- Oscar Piastri
- Max Verstappen
- Lando Norris
- Kimi Antonelli
- George Russell
- Carlos Sainz
Thank you for reading my 2025 Miami Grand Prix picks and predictions! Follow me on Twitter/X @nrojo5 for more fantasy football & sports takes, including Formula 1. Simply, simply lovely.
*Photo Credit: Sam Navarro – USA TODAY Sports*
