O Canada!
After a week-long break from Spain (shout out to Barcelona for next season’s stop), Formula 1 is back in Canada for some poutine, maple syrup and most importantly, racing. The Canadian Grand Prix is the tenth race of the season, so we are inching closer to the halfway mark. While anything can happen, this is generally the point of the season where you know who wins and what not.
McLaren still leads in the Constructors’ Championship race, but there’s been a shakeup below them. Ferrari has surpassed Mercedes for second place, thanks to a red-hot Charles Leclerc. Mercedes is only 6 points behind Ferrari, with George Russell looking to turn things around after his notable crash with Max Verstappen in Spain. Kimi Antonelli has cooled off for the time being.
Let’s get it.
(Odds courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook)
Will George Russell Bounce Back? I 2025 Canadian Grand Prix Picks
Happy Father’s Day to all the fathers out there, including to Canadian and Aston Martin team owner Lawrence Stroll. His son, Lance Stroll, returns from injury this week to race for Aston Martin on home soil after missing the Spanish Grand Prix.
The Canadian Grand Prix is generally a favorite track of drivers and fans. It is also an easier track for passing, with two long straights. However, the walls are notably closer to the track than usual, including the infamous Wall of Champions. The final chicane earned its nickname in 1999, when Damon Hill, Michael Schumacher and Jacques Villeneuve all crashed into the same wall.
While rain was a concern, the forecast has cleared up, which is good news. Multiple storylines remain, including most notably George Russell and Max Verstappen’s crash in Barcelona. Keep an eye on Verstappen and Russell.
Oscar Piastri remains in first for the Drivers’ Championship with 166 points, while fellow his McLaren teammate in papaya Lando Norris is quickly catching up (186 to 176 points). Expect more energy and pit stop strategy in Montreal.
2025 Canadian Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
With the win in Barcelona, the McLaren duo reached the podium for the seventh time this season. At this point, you know what you’re getting in Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris. The tricky bet, as always, is deciding who finishes in P1 versus P2. Because this track is easier to pass, McLaren will thrive, assuming clean weather.
Max Verstappen is someone to watch, as he is one penalty point from a race ban after the George Russell incident. This costly mistake dropped him all the way to P10. Meanwhile, Russell bounced back from his cold streak by finishing P4 behind Leclerc, and I like the British driver as a dark horse this weekend.
Verstappen’s outright odds have also continued to drop, but he carries enough juice to still make a solid amount of cash. Want more? Racing Bulls’ Isack Hadjar at +500 for a Top 6 finish is my personal favorite line of the Canadian Grand Prix. Yes, he may only be a rookie, but he is also coming off an impressive seventh-place finish in Spain. His confidence is returning and has shown he can hang with the big three. Also, keep an eye on the Williams team this week.
Oscar Piastri (+130)
Oscar Piastri bounced back and won in Barcelona after his teammate took the Monaco crown. He remains the hottest driver on the grid and the clear favorite to win the Drivers’ Championship. The Aussie notably crashed on the Wall of Champions a few years ago, but I expect him to have learned from his mistakes and approach those turns differently.
His consistency makes him an easy bet each week, but Montreal’s turns are slower than the usual fast ones. Does that matter? Yes and no. Piastri tends to perform better on the fast turns than the slow ones, so his Papaya teammate has a huge chance to surpass Piastri. However, it does not hurt to lean towards the Australian. Oscar Piastri has beaten his teammate head-to-head for most of the season.
Lando Norris (+150)
Lando Norris is battling Piastri for that Driver’s Championship, while Max Verstappen continues to sit at third, 39 points behind the top spot. Norris is only ten points behind, but Piastri leads his teammate in wins five to two.
The Brit has significantly improved in qualifiers after settling into the McLaren car. This led to a P2 finish in Spain and a win in Monaco. I expect the Papaya squad to dominate once more and for Norris to finish on the podium. He finished second in last year’s race and his Australian Grand Prix win could indicate an edge in Montreal since the tracks are similar. Yes, Piastri has dominated against Norris, but I can see Lando Norris closing the gap a bit more.
You can’t go wrong with either McLaren, but I’ll go with my gut and lean towards Lando Norris.
Max Verstappen (+550)
Barcelona was not simply lovely for the Dutch driver. He had one of his infamous outbursts and fell out of contention thanks to his 10-second penalty from the crash with George Russell.
The number seems a little high, but the books are confident Max Verstappen at least finishes on podium. He’s a three-time winner in Montreal and is known to bounce back from adversity. He is hungry.
I would not be surprised if he wins, especially if the car is strong and does not fail him once more. Despite his struggles, you can never bet against Max Verstappen. This is a good value bet.
2025 Canadian Grand Prix Dark Horse
George Russell (+1800)
You can make an argument that Charles Leclerc is a better bet for a dark horse finish at +1400, given his streak of podium finishes. But while I see the Ferrari driver finishing at least at P4, George Russell is the lone consistent driver that can challenge the big three.
Getting the value at +1800 is enough to throw some money on it or include it in a parlay with Williams and Racing Bulls. Russell bounced back in Spain by finishing P4 after a poor 11th-place finish in Monaco. He has four total podiums this season. The British driver is due for another big-time win and this outright is juicy enough to make it happen.
Top 6 Finish Predictions
- Lando Norris
- Oscar Piastri
- Max Verstappen
- Charles Leclerc
- George Russell
- Isack Hadjar
Thank you for reading my 2025 Canadian Grand Prix picks and predictions! Follow me on Twitter/X @nrojo5 for more fantasy football & sports takes, including Formula 1. Simply, simply lovely.
*Photo Credit: Sam Navarro – USA TODAY Sports*
