It’s finally time to crown a champion. After 35 races, three rounds of eliminations and plenty of memorable moments, the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race is here.
Four drivers – two apiece from Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) and Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) – will race for all the marbles in the Arizona desert. At the end of it all, one driver will walk away with the crown.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Is It Finally Denny Hamlin’s Year? | 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Phoenix Raceway is a one-mile, short-flat track with various comparables. Richmond and New Hampshire have been around on the schedule for a while, and the recent additions of Gateway and Iowa have helped provide similar data as well.
It’s a championship-level IBT Betting Model powered by ifantasyrace.com this week.
- Phoenix Next-Gen Average Finish
- Phoenix Next-Gen Total Speed Rankings
- Average Running Position at:
- 2025 Phoenix I
- 2025 New Hampshire
- 2025 Gateway
- 2025 Richmond
- 2025 Iowa
- Short-Flat Track Average Finish Since 2024
- 2025 Conventional Track Total Speed Rankings
- Xfinity & Truck Series @ Phoenix Bonus
There’s a reason the competitors didn’t want Team Penske in the Championship 4; both Ryan Blaney (P1) and Joey Logano (P6) rank highly in the model. Three of the four drivers racing for a title are among the top 10 as well, with Chase Briscoe not too far off in P14.
Let’s break down each of the Championship 4’s odds and seasons and see who’s best set up for a strong day in the desert.
2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Picks & Predictions
Denny Hamlin (+400)
Perhaps the best driver without a title in the sport’s history, Denny Hamlin is a rightful favorite for the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship. The No. 11 team leads the series with six wins in 2025, most recently at Las Vegas in the first Round-of-8 race. The ability to focus on a Phoenix game plan earlier than everyone else has proven to be an advantage in recent years.
Hamlin’s Phoenix stats show that he doesn’t need a huge advantage to race well here, however. Hamlin finished P2 in the spring and has a pair of wins in his career here. His Phoenix average finish in the Next-Gen era (10.9) ranks sixth, and his total speed ranking is fifth-best. The Virginia native’s average finish on comp tracks in the playoffs is 6.5, good for P5 in the series.
Kyle Larson (+500)
It’s been an un-Kyle Larson-like season in 2025, but still a strong enough one to qualify for the Championship 4. The No. 5 team has 14 T5 and 21 T10 finishes this year, but no wins since the spring Kansas race in May. Larson doesn’t have a win at Phoenix outside of the 2021 championship race, but this year has shown that even when not at his best, he can’t be ignored.
The California native ranks top five in both the Phoenix Next-Gen average finishes (10.1) and total speed rankings.
Larson’s average finish at Gateway and New Hampshire this year was 9.5, the worst among the Championship 4 drivers.
William Byron (+550)
William Byron earned the walk-off win at Martinsville to qualify for the Championship 4 after bad luck struck in the earlier races of the round. Byron was on track to contend for wins at Las Vegas and Talladega before being involved in late crashes. That means the No. 24 team could sneakily have even stronger momentum than we think.
Byron won the spring 2023 race at Phoenix and has a trio of victories in 2025, including the Daytona 500. The North Carolina native ranks second in each of the Phoenix average finishes (8.0), plus the Phoenix and short-flat track total speed rankings, the best among the Championship 4 drivers.
Chase Briscoe (+700)
The underdog story in this year’s Championship 4 is Chase Briscoe. His first year with Joe Gibbs Racing will end with a shot at a title, something that was a hope but not an expectation for the No. 19 team.
Briscoe has three wins and a series-best 15 T5 finishes in 2025, ending the season much hotter than he started it. The Indiana native has some rough recent Phoenix stats, ranking him 12th in both average finish and total speed ranking in the series. But factoring in a crash this spring and racing for a dying team in 2024 makes those asterisk-mark type of performances.
Prior to last week’s engine failure, Briscoe’s playoff average finish was rivaling some of Jimmie Johnson’s dominant championship years. Add in that Briscoe’s first-career win came at Phoenix in spring 2022, and it makes the underdog narrative have high potential to pay off.
Thanks for reading my 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Amber Searls – USA TODAY Sports*
